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In what's shaping up to be a historically soft Q3 across the industry, Heineken USA posted its steepest volume drops in quite some time. HUSA shipments declined "in the mid-teens," co reported Wed, a day before Boston Beer did the same. Down substantially from high-single-digit drop in 1st half while lapping mid-single-digit declines in Q3 of last yr. US net revs also slipped "low teens" organically in latest qtr. Heineken said its US declines reflect distributor stock adjustments and a tuff beer mkt that "disproportionately impacted core consumers of Heineken and Dos Equis," i.e. Hispanics. HUSA volume on pace to fall below 5.5 mil bbls in 2025, INSIGHTS estimates. That'd be down over 40% from peak of ~9.3 mil bbls in 2008 and likely its lowest volume output since 2003. Back in '03, USA made up over 25% of global Heineken earnings. It's since shrank considerably as these days HUSA's under 5% of global revs and ~2.5% of volume, as Heineken spent many billions to expand elsewhere over the past couple decades. But in busy week for the brewer that also included a capital markets day in Spain and regional distrib meetings in US, Heineken outlined reasons to believe in accelerated growth prospects, both in US and abroad.Heineken's global Q3 organic beer volume fell 4.3% with net revs (beia) down 0.3% to $8.5 bil USD. Yr-to-date net revs up 1.3% to ~$25 bil USD. Yet even as co's global beer volume dipped 2.3% YTD, it gained or held share in "substantial majority" of mkts. Macroeconomic volatility "became more pronounced" in Q3 "creating a challenging environment," ceo Dolf van den Brink said in release. But co still expects to deliver nearly $600 mil in 2025 gross savings and projects full-yr organic oper profit growth (beia) toward low end of 4%-8% guidance. "We expect consumer confidence and demand to recover" when conditions normalize, Dolf added, tho he didn't define when that may be."A Green Wave of Growth on the Horizon" At its east region distrib mtg yesterday, Heineken USA upheld similar optimism about its prospects once headwinds subside. There is a "a green wave of growth on the horizon," declared new chief sales officer Bill Renspie. Backfilling longtime HUSA exec Jim Sloan following his Oct 1 retirement, the former Constellation Brands cco will seek to replicate a track record of success in his time at STZ. The beer industry is at "a major inflection point," Bill highlighted. But this will be "the turning point" not just for HUSA but for "the industry as a whole," he believes."We all know how bad it is out there," HUSA ceo Maggie Timoney acknowledged. But "my message today is belief in beer" and "belief in our brands," she emphasized, adding that beer "will come back." To help turn the tides, next yr HUSA will launch new campaigns on each of its top 2 brands, which company brass believe can live on for yrs to come. Brand Heineken's new "fans have more friends" platform can stretch across sports as well as music and cultural moments, execs noted. And tho still under wraps for now, Dos Equis will intro a new Stay Thirsty campaign with vision to be the "most interesting beer brand in the world."Beer "Too Expensive," Sez Maggie; HUSA Price Flat in YTD Scans Many of current industry challenges are cyclical and outside co's control, Maggie commented, namely drops in consumer confidence and changes to immigration policy. Yet HUSA also attributed 21% to price increases. "We all have to look in the mirror on this." Beer "used to be accessible from a price perspective," but "it's too expensive. We have an affordability issue," said Maggie.That POV appears to be manifesting in mkt. Heineken pricing essentially flat YTD in Circana multi-outlet + convenience scans thru Oct 5. Up just 2 cents per case to $36.80 whereas total industry avg up 1.7%, 51 cents to $31.05 (including mix shift). Dos Equis price down slightly YTD, -0.8% to $35.90. But Heineken 0.0 prices dipped 10% YTD, down $4.20 per case to $37.89 and now more in line with total NA segment at $36.14. Several other top 25 suppliers also flat or down on price. Pabst and Yuengling prices virtually unchanged while Tilray (-1.2%), Athletic (-1.3%), Sapporo USA (-1.4%) and Monster Brewing (-1.4%) avg prices down yr-to-date. HUSA's total volume slipped 8.7% year-to-date in Circana MULC with Heineken family down 12% and Dos down 7.2%. Both are still top 20 beer brand fams at #11 and #19 in scans, respectively. Dollar sales up just 1.8% for Heineken 0.0, but volume grew 13.1%.Heineken 0.0 Launching First-Ever Flavor Innovations; Expanding Ultimate Zero Heineken 0.0 still a bright spot in US for latest earnings, growing depletions for a 24th consecutive qtr. But it slowed to low-single-digit volume growth following mid-teens growth in Q2. (Globally, 0.0 volume declined 1.8% for the qtr and down 0.6% for the yr.) Amid increased competition, the brand will launch a pair of first-ever flavor innovations, Cold Pressed Lime and Nectarine Juniper, with aim to make Heineken 0.0 the undisputed leader in NA beer. Co believes flavor will be the next major growth wave within NAs. It'll roll those out regionally to 14 states to start. And following test launch in MA and NJ this yr, HUSA will expand Heineken 0.0 Ultimate to 12 states in 2026, touting 0 alcohol, 0 calories, 0 sugar.Accelerated Global Growth Outlined in EverGreen 2030 Global Heineken also held a capital markets day in Seville, Spain yesterday, where execs unveiled accelerated growth ambitions over the next 5 yrs. Co expects to deliver mid-single-digit organic net rev growth between now and 2030, a significant uptick from revs +1.3% for 9 mos in 2025. And it projects organic oper profit "ahead of organic net revenue growth" while targeting an additional &euro;400-500 mil ($464-580 mil) in annual gross savings. As part of revamped strategy, co also announced "reshaping" of its global head office that will affect around 400 jobs, including some relocations. That's "on top of 200" digital & tech roles "already in transformation" since Oct 2024 as it builds out tech capabilities. But while beer already captures "42% of consumer spending on alcohol" and "leads the beverage market," Heineken sees "significant headroom" for category growth. Co projects global beer vol to grow ~1% per yr and believes it's "uniquely positioned" to seize the oppy thru its "advantaged global footprint and strong presence in developed and emerging markets."US Listed Among 17 "Focus Markets" at Capital Markets Day Intriguingly, "US Premium" is listed as 1 of 17 focus markets in global ceo Dolf van den Brink's presentation deck. It's labeled a "challenge" mkt alongside several of Heineken's biggest: Mexico, Brazil and South Africa. "Invest where it counts in 17 Focus Markets," slide headlines. Among "clear value roles" listed for the "challenge" focus mkts are "Accelerate share & build scale"; "Priority for capital deployment"; "Priority for Growth transformation programs." The 13 "lead" mkts will prioritize growing revenue, margin and profit, including: France, Italy, Spain and the UK, plus Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nigeria, Panama, Rwanda and Vietnam.

HUSA Shipments Down Mid-Teens in Q3; On Pace for Lowest Output Since '03 but Bracing for Growth

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