Beer Marketer's Insights - Very Challenging Year; Down Near 30 Mil Bbls Last 4 Yrs; Lowest Volume Since the 80s

The beer biz has hit a rough patch in last few years, to put it mildly. With US beer shipments down 7 mil bbls, 4.7% thru Sep 2025 (see last issue), US biz will probably end this yr no higher than 186 mil bbls (taxpaid + imports), even in unlikely event biz flat in Q4. So shipments will have dropped at least 28 mil bbls, 13% since 2021, and more like 30 mil bbls, 14% if industry declines at similar rate in Q4 as it did Jan-Sep (as Oct-Nov retail data suggests). Recall, 2021 was somewhat inflated post-pandemic (industry up in 2020-21). So one slight silver lining is that if you go back to 2019, the last "normal year," then beer down only a little more than 10% (21 mil bbls) in 6 yrs. Still, any way you cut it, 2025 US beer shipments shaping up to be lower than 1986, when US biz at 188 mil bbls. Yikes!Is it structural or cyclical? Everyone keeps askin' and the answer pretty much has to be both. Just depends how you weigh each factor. For sure, economically challenged consumers and the especially heavy pressure on Hispanic consumers are big factors, likely the biggest of many factors frequently mentioned. Those include everything from younger people drinking less to negative sentiments about alcohol, to a general trend towards health and wellness to cannabis bevs and online gambling. All that has to be in there somewhere.Some of beer's losses can also be attributed to growth of competing bevs, especially ready-to-drink spirits in last few years. They are again by far the biggest growth sector in the industry in 2025 (see below). But many distributors and even some beer suppliers (Boston, AB) sell significant quantities of these products. And if those are included with malt bev total, as per Boston Beer founder Jim Koch's "Fourth Category" formulation, that cuts 2025 industry $$ sales decline in half in NIQ data, from down 3.2% to -1.5%.Beer's peak volume yr was 2008. That was the year of the Big Bang, when Anheuser Busch InBev and Molson Coors formed. While top 2 grew profits tremendously in the initial cost-cutting yrs, recently it's been more difficult to maintain peak profits in US for AB or MC. And as the industry changed dramatically thru successive waves of premiumization (imports, craft, seltzer, RTDs, etc) and declined overall, AB and MC lost an astonishing amount of volume. How much volume? Over 900 mil cases or 65 mil bbls between them, or almost 40% of their total. AB and MC combined fell from 78 share to 55 share of volume since 2008. AB is gaining share this yr for the first time since 2008. And MC gained share just in 2023 when AB declined double digits because of the Bud Light crisis.

Very Challenging Year; Down Near 30 Mil Bbls Last 4 Yrs; Lowest Volume Since the 80s

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