Beer Marketer's Insights - Athletic On Pace to Surpass 500K Bbls of Non-Alc Beer in 2025; Bill's Bullish as Ever on Oppys Ahead; More Innovation & 50% Mktg Increase in '26

Athletic Brewing maintained 28% depletions growth for running 12 mos with growth staying relatively consistent each quarter, CEO/founder Bill Shufelt shared with CBN yesterday. That puts co on track to surpass 500K bbls in 2025, up from just under 400K bbls produced in 2024. In the course of just ~7 yrs, selling nothin' but non-alc, Athletic suddenly ranks among top 4 craft beer portfolios and top 5 craft brand fams in the US all-channel, we estimate; only Boston Beer, Sierra Nevada and Tilray are bigger craft cos. New Belgium, Sam Adams, Sierra Nevada, Lagunitas and Goose Island are bigger brand fams by volume. Athletic further solidified its leadership position in non-alc beer this yr too, now well over 100K bbls ahead of #2 brand fam Heineken 0.0 in the US, we estimate. Amid influx of competition, from hi-profile launches like AB's Mich Ultra Zero and Tom Holland-backed Bero brand, to broader pushes from large and small suppliers alike, Athletic lost just 0.25 share of non-alc beer segment YTD in scans, still holding onto over 19 share of NA beer $$ in Circana MULC. Mich Ultra Zero gobbled up 10 share of non-alc $$ YTD including 13 share in latest periods, sourcing most from AB's other NA brands and other top brands in the category. Athletic's over half of craft NA beer, Bill also noted, which makes up nearly 40% of the total non-alc beer category in natl scans (over 40% in grocery channel). Co made serious strides on premise, where depletions grew 45%, including draft up 275% vs yr ago, adding 3,600+ draft placements and 12,500 new placements overall on prem. With new Live Nation partnership and several sports/music sponsorships, Athletic will give out 1.25 mil samples in 2025. In early innings of international expansion, Athletic grew 75% in UK, strong double digits in Canada this yr. And co's over 300 employees this yr with less than 5% turnover, Bill emphasized.Message to Distribs: "Bet on Athletic"; Big Distribution Oppys Across Channels Yet there's still so much more opportunity for Athletic and the category, in Bill and co's view. "Bet on Athletic" was co's mantra to distribs during recent natl meeting at its newly minted ~$50 mil, 750K-bbls/yr brewing facility in San Diego, where 100+ reps from across the country joined. While it's clear-cut #1 non-alc beer brand fam, Athletic's still just the 4th largest in distribution availability, Bill underscored. Distribution has been on the rise in chains, but there's still room to run even in the most developed channel, grocery, where non-alc beer holds over 3 share of beer $$ and Athletic 12pks are "most productive" in the segment but only have low-double-digit distribution. Co's yet to break thru in largest beer channel, convenience, in a bigger way. Athletic's still under 15% of indie channels nationally. And on premise, Athletic holds 33 share of non-alc beer (80% of craft NAs) with double the dollar velocity of next largest brand despite having just 12% distribution.50% Mktg Increase in 2026; Bigger Innovation Slate; $130+ Mil on Capacity Athletic keeps betting bigger on itself too, including plans to increase marketing spend by 50% in 2026 after double-digit increases each of the last 5 yrs and spending over $130 mil to secure 1.2 mil bbls/yr of brewing capacity across its facilities. Co aims to shift from merely "the category leader" in a subsegment to becoming "a modern drinking icon," sez Bill. Expect to see more TV and streaming, plus digital, social, audio/podcasts, out-of-home, another 1 mil samples and more, including all-new campaign in Q1 emphasizing its "award-winning" brews, Run Wild IPA most of all. Athletic extended several of its endurance competition partnerships like IRONMAN, Spartan and Life Time, as well as key sports partnerships with Arsenal, 8 MLS clubs, natl women's soccer, certain MLB stadiums and teams, premier lacrosse, and Major League Fishing.Athletic will also increase innovation efforts in 2026, bringing its first line extension to the mix with Athletic Layback Lime & Salt going natl in Jan after successful test, Paloma and Moscow Mule cocktail-style brews going natl in "select retailers" and series of seasonals, limited-time-offerings, collabs and "special packaging during key periods." Currently, Winter Wonder limited release has "been flying," said Bill. Gotta note, Lime and Salt non-alc brews are gonna be competitive in 2026 with Constellation debuting non-alc version of Modelo Chelada Limon Y Sal as Best Day still gaining traction with Electro Lime lager this yr. Tho Dos Equis Lime & Salt non-alc is down low double digits this yr.Sifting Thru "Celeb Brand Noise"; Sticking to "Moderation Messaging" As the category leader, Bill voiced his views on both category growth oppys and category concerns, perhaps a little louder than in yrs past. He took issue with some of the "inefficient assortment" at retail as "one of the category's biggest headwinds," pointing to "several brands launched in 2025" that were 20+ distribution points above Athletic despite much lower rate of sale. Athletic figures inefficient assortment was "at least a 5% drag on category growth," particularly during key selling seasons. Notably, top 3 non-alc beer cos &mdash; AB, Athletic and HUSA &mdash; make up 70% of the category, Bill added. And "45% of new category buyers enter the category through Athletic, Heineken 0.0 and Guinness 0."Bill put extra spotlight on "celebrity-backed entrants" that "continue to strain the category," seemingly talking about Bero first and foremost. Many celeb brands got "early spikes followed by significant declines, out-of-code issues, and supply issues during peak programming periods." There's "risk that these launches will temporarily distract retailers and ultimately destabilize the category instead of strengthening it," he offered. Plus, celeb-backed brands continue to promote "sobriety-centric messaging," something Athletic "deliberately avoid[s]," as 80% of its drinkers still drink alcohol, aiming to "capture moderate drinkers through our 'chaser, pacer, and replacer,' positioning."

Athletic On Pace to Surpass 500K Bbls of Non-Alc Beer in 2025; Bill's Bullish as Ever on Oppys Ahead; More Innovation & 50% Mktg Increase in '26

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