Beer Marketer's Insights - SCANNER DATA: LSD Volume Gains in NAs, Tho with Sequential Deceleration, Goldman Sachs Reports; Olipop, Spindrift, Liquid Death & Vita Coco Still Growth Stars

Volume continued to be a challenge in non-alc space in 4 wks ended Dec 13, with key exceptions in energy, coconut water and zero-sugar CSDs. Most other categories whose NielsenIQ scans are tracked by Goldman Sachs' Bonnie Herzog managed low-single-digits increases tho sugared CSDs, sparkling water and coffee all were down. CSDs Buoyed by Zero-Sugar Sub-Segment CSD segment continued to shield volume challenges with pricing strength, with 0.8% volume hit over the 4 wks handily offset by 4.6% in pricing, similar pattern to 12-wk period. As usual, that masked a divergence in fortunes between full-calorie and zero-sugar entries. Full-cal entries suffered 3.6% volume decline offset by 4.4% in pricing but low- and no-calorie CSDs scored 4.9% gain in volume even as pricing soared 5.9% for overall 11% $$ sales gain, about in line with 12- and 52-wk trends. Coca-Cola saw its regular CSDs slip 2.9% in volume offset by 4.5% in pricing while its low/no-cal entries scored 6.8% volume gain layered over 4.7% pricing gain. PepsiCo's regular CSDs dropped 7.2% in volume, partly offset by 5.3% in pricing, while its low/no items were flat on volume but enjoyed 6.3% in pricing. KDP's full-sugar CSDs fell 3.6% in volume offset by 5.1% in pricing compared to its low/no items that layered 4.6% in volume atop 5.2% in pricing. On full-cal side, National Beverage, led by Faygo, suffered 2.5% volume decline but pricing rose 4.6%. On lower-cal side, Olipop volume spiked 36.6% offset by 5.9% in lower pricing for overall $$ lift of 28.6%. That left gut pop trailing 52-wk sales at $480.2 mil, up 50.3%. (Small amount of Olipop sales are also grouped within full-cal, we're not sure why.) Another unaligned player tracked by Bonnie, Zevia, scored mild 2.1% volume lift abetted by just 0.9% in pricing. Its 52-wk $$ sales are up 13.2% to $194.6 mil.Energy Lull a Distant Memory as Volume Soars 13% Despite 2.3% in Pricing Gains As has been clear from recent earnings calls, energy segment is back to robust growth after year-ago lull. Over latest 4 wks, category scored 13% volume gain augmented by 2.3% in pricing. Monster (excluding acquired Bang brand) enjoyed 5.8% volume growth boosted by 7.6% pricing gain. Red Bull scored 8.3% volume gain on 1.2% price decline. Celsius (into which Herzog now groups its acquired Alani Nu and Rockstar brands) enjoyed 18.8% volume gain and 2.7% pricing lift. KDP-aligned Nutrabolt (mainly C4) scored 11.5% volume gain, partly offset by 8% price decline. Ghost Energy, now also KDP-aligned, scored 18.9% volume gain atop 0.7% pricing increase. Shot leader 5-Hour continued its prolonged decline, off 8.5% in volume offset a tad by 1.8% increase in price. Soup maker Campell Co continues to quietly make headway in energy with its V8 + Energy scoring 7.7% volume gain and 3.7% pricing gain, leaving 52-wk $$ sales at $253.2 mil. Prime Hydration's energy extension continued its prolonged skid, off 62.4% in volume despite 15.4% in price relief, leaving 52-wk $$ sales at $24.3 mil. Recall that parent Congo Brands sold Alani to Celsius and hived off 3D Energy, leaving Prime as its sole brand currently.In Bottled Water, Coca-Cola Is Biggest $$ Gainer at 6.1% as PepsiCo Sags 10.1% Coca-Cola continues to clearly best PepsiCo in growing bottled water, with its portfolio of Smartwater and other brands scoring 17.6% volume gain even as PEP's portfolio plummeted 21% in 4-wk period, tho KO cut pricing while PEP raised it. Overall, category scored 3.1% volume gain on 0.4% in pricing cuts. Private-label outperformed but not by much, rising 4.4% in volume on flat pricing. Collectively those brands comprise biggest segment by $$, 34% of total $20.2 bil category, per 52-wk trend. Among key players, Primo Brands with Poland Spring, Deer Park, Pure Life and many other marques, scored 4% volume gain with prices edging up 0.7%. As noted, Coca-Cola enjoyed 17.6% volume gain, thanks in part to 9.8% price drop, while PepsiCo volume dropped 21% while taking 13.5% in pricing. Still, in $$ sales, KO grew 6.1% while PEP dropped 10.4%. Nestle (with brands like Pellegrino and Essentia) grew volume 3% on 4.1% price drop. Wonderful Co (Fiji) grew volume 4.9% on 3.8% price cut. Roxane (Crystal Geyser) suffered 3.3% volume hit on 1.9% price increase. KDP took 6.6% volume hit on 2% pricing gain. Among indie players, Hint continued to struggle on volume front, off 4.1% despite 2.9% price cut, leaving its 52-wk $$ sales at $141.8 mil. Liquid Death's still water brand dropped 10% in volume despite 2.2% in price relief for latest 4 wks. (Tho it started as still-water player, LD now plays in sparkling water, tea and lately energy drinks, recall.)Sports Drinks Up Modest 2.8% but Electrolit Still Sizzles Sports drink category eked out 2.8% volume growth for 4-wk period on 1.3% in higher pricing. Leader PepsiCo (Gatorade) grew in synch with category, +2.7%, on 0.7% in higher pricing. Coke (Powerade, Body Armor) won volume share with 5.3% increase on 1.5% higher pricing. For 52 wks, tho, it's still just 38% the size of PEP's $6.6 bil. Insurgent Pisa (via KDP-aligned Electrolit brand) continued its meteoric rise, +26.8% volume gain, on 2.6% in pricing. For 52 wks its $$ sales are $647.4 mil. No signs of revival for Prime Hydration, off 43.7% in volume despite 5.6% in price cuts, leaving 52-wk sales at $229.1 mil.Nestle Was Sparkling Water Star Among Majors, with Spindrift, Liquid Death, Waterloo Also Scoring Nice Gains Sparkling water segment dipped 1% on volume in 4-wk period but 7.9% in pricing resulted in solid sales gain of 6.8%. Sparkling Ice, grouped in this category despite its use of sweetener, continued its growth struggles, off 6.2% in volume, a bit worse than 6% range of its declines over 12- and 52-wk periods. It grabbed 9.7% of pricing to yield 2.9% $$ sales gain. Its 52-wk sales stood at $859.2 mil. Among major unsweetened players, Nestle was the star, with volume surging 11.1% despite 3.1% taken in pricing. National Bev (mainly La Croix) struggled, with volume off 8% on 5.1% price increase. Coca-Cola riding portfolio that includes Topo Chico at premium end, enjoyed 6.2% volume gain despite 7.1% price hike. KDP-aligned Polar grew its seltzers 3.2% by volume on +2.8% pricing. Its 52-wk sales are $430.7 mil. PepsiCo struggled in this segment with volume off 3.5% even on 6.9% in pricing cuts. Among unaligned players, Spindrift, Waterloo and Liquid Death all grabbed share. Spindrift soared 24.9% on volume on fairly flat (+0.6%) pricing, with 52-wk sales at $354 mil. Waterloo racked up lesser 7.7% gain on 2.9% in pricing gains to 52-wk tally of $250.9 mil. Liquid Death scored 13.6% volume increase despite +7.1% pricing, leaving its 52-wk sales at $223.4 mil.Coffee Sluggishness Continues tho Pepsi/Starbucks Edges Up RTD coffee continued in its long slump with volume easing off 6.2% over latest 4 wks on +2.9% in price realization as unpredictable tariffs worsened supply chain challenges caused by disappointing crops. Pepsi/Starbucks alliance, which still holds nearly half the category in $$, edged up 2.9% in volume on 4.9% in price cuts. Danone, riding Stok, suffered 1.7% volume decline on 4.6% in pricing realization. Black Rifle continued to taper off, at least in scanned channels, -5.5% volume on 2.3% in pricing. Coca-Cola, which is transitioning to new model following disappointments of Costa strategy, suffered 19.8% volume decline on 7.8% in price gains. Riding steep price cut of 9.8%, Califia Farms enjoyed 17% volume uptick for 52-wk sales of $55.4 mil.Coconut Water Continues as Fastest-Growing Segment; C2O Soars 42% Not many surprises here, given dominant role of publicly traded Vita Coco: robust growth that enables leader to style it the fastest-expanding segment outrunning even energy. For latest 4 wks category grew volume by 13.2% despite 6.9% pricing taken in part to deal with Trump's unpredictable tariff regime. Vita Coco, which accounts for 47% of category's $958.1 mil in 52-wk sales, grew 12.5% on 9% in pricing gains. Refrigerated leader Harmless Harvest, aligned with Danone, grew volume 13.4% on +8% in pricing, for 52-wk sales of $110.1 mil. Goya actually declined, -4.7%, on 2.2% in pricing. Private-label players collectively lost a tad of volume share, growing 11.3% on 5.6% in pricing. Among other brands tracked by Herzog, canned player C2O (aligned with Jarritos marketer Novamex) showed that Vita Coco isn't sucking the air out of the category for other shelf-stable players: it soared 42.3% on 3.4% price cut. It's doing $60.5 mil over trailing 52 wks.

SCANNER DATA: LSD Volume Gains in NAs, Tho with Sequential Deceleration, Goldman Sachs Reports; Olipop, Spindrift, Liquid Death & Vita Coco Still Growth Stars

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