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Challenging year across the board for alc bevs ended with some of the softest volume trends for all categories, SipSource analysts Dale Stratton and Danny Brager showed during WSWA Access LIVE opening session yesterday. With beer depletions off about 5.4% for the yr in Beer Inst data, core spirits finished the year about a pt better, still down 4.3% in SipSource data (excluding RTDs, covering sales in 50 states to 462K retailers). That's not far off where spirits landed in 2024, as category hovered in the -4% range for much of the yr. But wine got way worse, softening from down 6.4% in 2024 to -8.8% by Dec, Dale and Danny shared. The pair remain optimistic, but "2026 will again challenge our resolve," Danny commented. "Trends are going to get better," it seems to Dale, but they won't turn positive, he forecast. Key pinch-point for the category remains high distrib inventories. Currently running at about $1.67 in inventory for every $1 in sales, a ratio that's stubbornly remained inflated for close to 4 yrs after expanding from about $1.29 during the growth yrs of 2007-2021 and "normal" rate of just $1.13 from 1992-2006. High inventory rate is "not sustainable," Dale confirmed, estimating that it "probably is going to come down in 2026."PODs Down 4.5% Across Wine & Spirits, Driven by Top Channels Then too, there are fewer places to put that inventory. Total wine & spirits points of distribution declined 4.5% in 2025 with declines across channels, SipSource data shows. Liquor stores represent over 40% of total PODs, but the number dropped over 5% last yr, with grocery and c-store PODs down about 3%. Dining and bar/club PODs each off 5%, too, another 20+% of wine and spirits sales points.Inflation Hits On-Prem Harder, Tho Revs There Outperformed Big questions still swirl around macro factors like inflation and spending, Danny and Dale reminded. And inflation has already impacted alc bev spending, with avg grocery prices up 30% vs 2020, according to US fed CPI data. Wine and spirits prices for at-home consumption up far less in last couple yrs, they pointed out, tho on-premise prices up much faster. That said, on-premise distrib revs outperformed the off premise last yr in SipSource depletions data, Danny explained. Spirits on-prem revs down just 4.2% vs off-prem -5.4%, while wine dipped 5.6% on prem and -7.5% off prem.Number of Fine Dining Restaurants -40% Since 2017, Fast Casual +66% But shape of on-premise changed dramatically over last decade or so. Number of fine-dining outlets dropped almost 40% to over 8,600 from end of 2017 to end of 2025, according to NIQ TDLinx data. That's a loss of almost 6,000 retailers geared toward high-spend and (often) wine consumption. Over same period, the US gained almost 14K fast casual and quick service restaurants, up 66% to almost 35K. And those outlets, focused on speed, ease and efficiency, aren't geared toward the kind of lengthy meals that drive alc bev sales.Do Wine & Spirits Distribs "Love" RTDs? Speaking of convenience, RTDs continue to grow across wine and spirits, nearing $5 bil in sales together in NIQ data, driven by spirits, the pair showed. They "don't see any slowdown really in sight," Danny commented. Spirits-based RTDs volume passed vodka and whiskey in NIQ data last yr, reaching 26.2 share of spirits sold in tracked off-premise channels, but 10 share of $$. RTD brands are 9 of the top 20 spirits brands by volume in this data. Consumers "seem to love them," Danny commented. But "do you love them?" he asked room of wine & spirits distribs, often geared toward lower-volume, higher-margin products going to different outlets.

Core Spirits STRs Off 4.3% in 2025, Wine -8.8%, SipSource Shows; "Unsustainable" Inventories Loom Large

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