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MC's revitalization plan is officially finito. Now it's onto "Horizon 2030," as MC plans to grow net sales revs low-single-digits annually, underlying income before taxes by mid singles, and underlying earnings/share by high singles per yr over the medium-term, ceo Rahul Goyal and cfo Tracey Joubert showcased at CAGNY event shortly after releasing Q4/year-end 2025 results. It's been a bumpy ride, including a fortuitous bounce in 2023 to get here. But even with continued volume declines and recent $$ drops, MC net revs are still up both globally (+5%) and in the US (+1%) since the revitalization plan began in 2019, with a leaner org and much healthier balance sheet. With Horizon 2030, "it is about rewiring our business in a world of constant change&hellip;taking bold opportunities and reacting on that quickly" and "spending more time in the market where our consumers are and where our customers operate," Rahul explained. In this next phase, MC aims to: grow net sales revs and profit on "core power brands" Coors Light, Miller Lite and Coors Banquet plus Molson, Carling and Ozujsko; "drive profit on our value brands" led by Miller High Life and Keystone Light; "accelerate" above premium beers led by Blue Moon, Madri and Peroni; and "scale" in beyond beer with existing portfolio and a notable step-up in M&A. Rahul also wants to empower local decision making, "leaning into" its "distributor-facing organization." But "all of this has to be supported by being disciplined on our cost savings and having a clear dynamic approach to capital allocation" too.Step-Up in M&A Activity but "Not Looking to Step Up Investment [Overall] in a Significant Way" Suggests MC remains relatively conservative in its approach. Co's still finding ways to take significant costs outta the system while leveraging more tech, planning to save $450 mil over next 3 yrs, invest ~$100 mil less on capex per yr, and keep net debt/EBITDA ratio below 2.5X target, execs shared. It already "unlocked meaningful savings" thru layoffs and new org structure in North America, said Tracey. "We're not looking to step up investment in a significant way," Rahul added during Q&A. "We feel our brands are well supported."But in this new phase, MC is expecting to step up M&A activity, seeking deals that would cost between $200-350 mil, funded entirely by cash from operations, targeting brands/cos that add 1-2% to MC's net sales revs annually and are "scalable," she highlighted. This would be a clear increase from recent deals like Fever-Tree (~$88 mil for 8.5% stake), ZOA Energy ($53 mil to go from 40% to 51% stake) and Blue Run ($78 mil for 75% stake). Co took a $75 mil writedown on Blue Run last yr and ZOA hasn't panned out as cos woulda hoped. But Fever-Tree is "our biggest per hectoliter brand we have right now," and has big upside with the "trifecta working" across distrib network, retail network and own team "excited" to push this brand forward.US Premiumization Still Lagging; Beyond Beer Strategy in "Early Innings," Approaching 10% of Net Revs Premiumization "is not going anywhere," Rahul assured, reminding that its Canadian and UK above premium biz is "pretty strong" while US remains "underrepresented." On the beer side, Rahul wants to "keep leaning into that" with Blue Moon, Peroni and Madri, noting that Blue Moon Belgian White is "still a work in progress," but Blue Moon non-alc "is growing 25%" and "probably the number two non-alc craft brand in the country." On beyond beer, "we're going to continue&hellip;on our total beverage journey," Rahul stated. It's already approaching 10% of MC's net revs, suggesting it's over $1 bil total in 2025. Topo Chico Hard got a shoutout for "pivot" from purely hard seltzer to fuller-flavor and higher-ABV offerings. "We've changed the trajectory of this brand" with consecutive trend and share performance improvement thruout 2025, and growth in early 2026.MC Value Portfolio Step-Up "In a Very Selective Way" Every segment is viewed as an important part of the path forward, Rahul reiterated, putting a spotlight on the value/economy beer segment multiple times thruout his talk. On its own, MC's value portfolio would be "the fifth largest beer company in the country" by volume, Rahul stated, suggesting the portfolio is still around 7-7.5 mil bbls in the US. "The value consumer is feeling the pressure, and they are looking for options within their budget. And frankly, we have the scale&hellip;but we're going to increase the focus on value in a very selective way," Rahul added. Co's "going to have selective investment in selective markets with very pointed innovation," expanding Miller High Life Light "across a few more states" and adding Keystone Apple among other moves. Value portfolio "is where we need to make sure we can get some support on the volume piece," Rahul commented separately during Q&A, suggesting possibility of more competitive pricing dynamics.Co's also "expanding Miller Extra Light," Rahul shouted out. Miller Extra Light (rebranded Miller 64) clocks in at just 2.8% ABV and already holds spot as the clear US leader in "mid-strength" beer. But it's still relatively tiny and sales dipped in 2025 natl scans to $28.8 mil and 1.4 mil cases in Circana MULC channels, with avg price/case at just $21, i.e. below premium. All told, "a big part of our share losses" have been "in the value and flavor" plus craft segments, Rahul acknowledged, so shoring up those pieces remains key.Up to $4 Bil in Buybacks MC generated $1.1 bil in free cash flow last yr and expects to deliver a similar amount in 2026. Co already repurchased $1.4 bil in shares over last ~2 yrs from its planned 5-yr, $2 bil share buyback program. Debt/EBITDA ratio and total debt slashed by more than half since 2016 when net debt was $11.5 bil and 4.8X EBITDA, down to $5.4 bil and 2.3X in 2025. "And we've continued to hold the highest credit rating that we've had since 2016," said Tracey. So MC will increase buyback program significantly, authorizing up to $4 bil in buybacks thru 2031 (including the $1.4 bil already spent), she highlighted.Midwest Premium & Incentive Comp Driving Double-Digit Earnings Drop Asked about main drivers of MC's expected 15-18% decline on underlying income this yr, Rahul pointed to Midwest Premium as "biggest part of our COGS inflation," accounting for 9-10 pts of the expected drop. Last yr, Midwest Premium resulted in $35 mil "unfavorable impact" on 2025 results, MC filing shows. This yr co's expecting that to increase considerably with "an incremental headwind of about $125 million this year" on aluminum costs. There are "not immediate actions you can take" to mitigate that, yet co has "initiatives and have the programs to make sure that we're managing through it," Rahul assured. It's also cycling a big incentive comp that will have an expected 7-pt negative impact on this yr's income trend. Indeed, "costs leave bitter taste for 2026," JP Morgan's Drew Levine headlined in his report on TAP. While "encouraged by some of the initiatives laid out at CAGNY," MC's mid-term targets are "another year removed," wrote Needham's Gerald Pascarelli separately.

MC Sees Consistent Topline Growth on the Horizon; Lookin' at $200-350 Mil Deals to Add 1-2% NSR Annually; $450 Mil Savings in 3 Yrs

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