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At last yr's Craft Brewers Conference, the industry seemed to be in a "grin-and-bear-it stage," Brewers Assn prexy/CEO Bart Watson commented during a media breakfast in Philly yesterday. But this yr it feels like more folks are "coming out the other side." Despite another tuff yr for craft in 2025, conversations early in the wk have focused on "a lot of positivity and a lot of success that's out there," he reported. Scan trends look distinctly brighter so far this yr and Bart's "hearing this from members," too. Easier comps are a key piece of that, natch. It also arrives after yrs of changes in distribution, whether clearing out some brands to open "more opportunities" for those that remain or brewers "getting their distribution footprints in the right place." (An expanded version of this article appeared yesterday in sibling pub Craft Brew News.) State of the Industry Preview: Hospitality Breweries Did Better In total, 2025 was more "negative for distributing breweries," but by some metrics "actually positive for hospitality breweries," Bart commented. Brewpubs and taprooms "had a slightly better year" last yr than in 2024. "Distribution is competitive," as both wholesalers and retailers are "looking for innovation in new places outside craft," he reminded. Sometimes small brewers are "capturing that volume" by expanding their portfolios, but far from all the time.Closings Still Surprisingly "Static" as Openings Slow Further And as of now, BA counted "300 openings and 481 closings last year," Bart shared, still "kind of static" and "lower than I would have expected." The closing rate of about 5% is still "below where it is for overall hospitality businesses," he reminded. And "maybe it's still coming," he said of a possible spike in closings. Instead, the change in the overall brewery count is still far more driven by an ongoing steady decline in the number of breweries opening.Don't Count Craft Out: Look Out for Regional Lagers; Expanding Flavor Cues Away from IPA Much like today, craft faced "a lot of headwinds and [was] going nowhere" in the mid-late 90s before taking off and growing for a couple decades. While years of double-digit gains feel unlikely, it's "quite plausible that craft has another period of growth," Bart thinks. He sees at least 2 oppys: regional lagers picking up volume from large mainstream brands and another style that "hits in the marketplace" like IPA did. IPAs still sell well, but their dominance is a turn off for some new consumers, he explained. So there's "more work" to do explaining that "craft does not equal IPA," in Bart's view. It's time to "lean back into the education that built the category" around the diversity of beer styles and beer flavors. For a while, "craft owned" the attributes of "flavor and variety" in the alc bev and especially beer space, he reflected. But now consumers seek those things elsewhere.Consolidation Among Breweries an Old Story This wk's story about Firestone Walker and Duvel USA taking on the Stone brand are part of a "long tradition" of consolidating brands "in beer and brewing," Bart reminded. When "there's excess capacity out there," brands come together to more efficiently use it. But it's "too soon to comment really" on "who's doing it right and what's successful." To determine that, "the devil is gonna be in the details" of "how you sell those portfolios side by side," Bart thinks. In the past, success has been determined more by effectively integrating sales than by integrating production.

Better Start to 2026 Brightens Mood at CBC: Bart on Brewer Trends, "Static" Closings, IPA Dominance & More

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