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Molson Coors volume ran behind better industry trends in Q1, execs acknowledged on co's earnings calls yesterday morn. And as Q2 started, it was running behind on supply, they said, confirming complaints fielded by INSIGHTS from numerous distribs. But it's making moves to catch up, they assured. After laying out plans thru 2030, MC "took action right away," prexy/ceo Rahul Goyal told investors, inking a sizable RTD deal and expanding a share buyback program. Still, co's got "complex work" ahead of it that "will take time" to execute, he cautioned. MC reaffirmed its expectation for lower earnings by end of the yr, a reversal of a big Q1 jump, but roughly flat net sales, in line with the qtr. The Street shrugged and co's TAP stock is trading about where it ended the day Weds, ahead of results. US Shipments -2.5%, Lost 0.6 Share in Q1; Supply Issues to Challenge Q2 MC's US shipments dipped 2.5% in Q1, a pt ahead of depletions, -3.5%. Volumes for the larger Americas region landed in between. But that was cycling a particularly rough 1st qtr of 2025, when Americas shipments fell almost 16% and depletions declined 7%. And shipments will get worse again in Q2, execs warned, guiding to a 6-9% drop, well below depletions. "One-off" events like weather, facility upgrades and glass supply issues put some pressure on getting "particular packages in particular geographies" to distribs, cfo Tracey Joubert and Rahul said. Distrib sources big, small and in between pointed to interruptions and out-of-stocks for some of co's major brands, mostly larger pack sizes in glass, but not only.But shipments and depletions will re-align before yr-end, Tracey confirmed. And tho co lost 0.6 share of US beer industry volume, which declined an estimated 1.6% in Q1, it expects to improve its "share performance" thru the yr. That doesn't necessarily mean share growth, which may be farther away. Molson Coors lost the most share of any beer supplier in YTD Circana multi-outlet + convenience scans thru Apr 19. Down 0.6 share of $$ and 0.7 of cases in scans."Cautious" Amid Consumer Challenges in Bifurcated Market Still, Rahul expressed confidence in the co's summer plans, but he and the team "remain cautious" given all the external "volatility." One set of consumers is "pretty healthy" right now, driving "momentum" for high-end and beyond beer brands like Peroni and Fever-Tree. But it's a mixed bag for lower income consumers. "Trips are up" and "visits are up," he said, yet there's "still some pressure" on the "size of basket." Single serves and larger pack sizes keep outperforming "small and medium packs," he noted. "Increasing macro uncertainty" creates a "pretty complex input cost context," Rahul acknowledged. However, MC will stick to its 1-2% pricing guidance to "remain competitive for our brands" and "win with our brands.""Targeted" Fixes for Miller Lite, Value Brands; Better On-Prem; World Cup Push Rahul and co "know where our portfolio challenges are," he told investors yesterday. Share performance overall wasn't where co wanted it. Miller Lite faces "heightened competition in a couple of US regions," mostly in the "Great Lakes area," so co is taking a "more targeted" approach to correcting that, he said. And MC's value portfolio has been "a leaky bucket for a long time." Keystone brand fam requires attention, getting an apple flavor variant, plus re-intro of Keystone Ice. Additional "very local" value brands will get more differentiated local execution, he explained.Market specific activations also key to co's plans for leveraging World Cup occasions, especially on-premise, where co's 1st qtr trends looked brighter, execs explained. All 6 of co's top brands grew on-premise share in Nielsen CGA data, per Rahul. Then too, MC is "making our single largest media investment in many years," supporting multiple brands during the World Cup with "in-match media buys" as well as "local activations."Beyond Beer Nearing 10% of MC Biz; Closed on $275 Mil Atomic Buy MC must keep supporting its core biz while "transforming our portfolio," Rahul acknowledged, claiming a "more aggressive" approach to that task using its strong balance sheet. While co "held US industry share" in above premium, it's "scaling up" and "making great progress" beyond beer, which is "getting&hellip;up to close to 10%" of co's biz, he said (seemingly referring to dollar sales). He emphasized a turnaround in Topo Chico Hard, incremental Fever-Tree and newly acquired Monaco RTD brand picked up in Atomic Brands acquisition, closed on Apr 1 for $275 mil. Fever-Tree "contributed meaningfully to our top-line performance" in the qtr ahead of recent launch of its first natl ad campaign, Rahul said, tho co reported a $36.1 mil decrease in the brand's value since acquisition last yr. As MC integrates Atomic and Monaco, "job one" is to "make sure we can keep the commercial pressure and the focus on the business going forward," Rahul said, highlighting how Monaco's big c-store biz "strengthens our position" in the key channel.Financials Mixed with Cost Hits and Strong Price/Mix The acquisition of Atomic Brands should add about 1 pt to co's global net sales revs on trailing 12-mo basis, around $110 mil, adding to incremental profitability despite only 9 mos in the portfolio by end of yr, co shared. In Q1, co reported large increases to pre-tax income, partly offset by sizable cost increases. MC saw about a $30-mil increase in aluminum costs linked to the Midwest Premium in the qtr, a cost increase that will peak in Q2, Tracey explained. Yet mktg, gen & admin expenses decreased 6.6% in the qtr. All in all, reported global COGS per bbl grew 3%, with underlying costs per bbl up 5.4% in the Americas. But combo of premiumization and pricing lifted avg price/mix 3.1%. At end of qtr, MC's net debt to underlying EBITDA ratio ticked up to co's 2.5x goal, about where it'll end the yr, per co.

MC Racing to Catch Up in Volatile Environment; Q1 US Shipments -2.5%, Ahead of STRs; Brand Work

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