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No, craft isn't growing overall. But it has gotten better and a heckuva lot of craft brand fams are putting up strong gains so far this yr, Bump Williams Consulting explained in monthly client letter last wk, continuing the theme of good vibes and identifying growth within the segment from the recent Craft Brewers Conference. Craft's "sheer DEPTH" is unparalleled with close 2,500 brand families tracking at least some sales in NIQ scan data yr-to-date thru Apr 18. And so far this yr, 36% of them are growing, an improvement from the 33% in 2025, BWC shows. That's still a bit below the 41% of brand fams in the rest of beer category growing so far this yr. But given the number of craft brand fams out there, about 900 of 'em are in growth mode in scans. Because craft is so crowded, there's not a lot of room for depth among each brand fam, BWC cautions. That's led to more companies favoring a "structured approach in order to maximize effectiveness." And it may be a necessary approach amid the ongoing culling of craft brands sold at retail. Craft SKUs tracked in NIQ data dropped "-5% in 2024, -7% in 2025 and -10% so far" this yr, BWC wrote. Yet "the potential for a brand to buck the trend through a cultivated reputation + 'old school' grit and persistence is clearly still achievable." Examining the 40 craft brand fams posting the biggest $$ growth so far this yr, BWC found many that operate in a very tight footprint, getting outsized sales per item per store. In all, "Regional / Local brewers of all sizes can go toe-to-toe with the biggest names in the business on a pure performance level," per BWC.Top 5 Growers Have Big Reach, But None Runs as Deep as Russian River; Original Pattern "Growth does not have to be synonymous with Scale or Breadth (Reach)," BWC wrote, reflecting on the top 40 growth fams. But the 5 biggest growers this year have quite a bit of both scale and reach: New Belgium, Sierra Nevada and a trio from AB (Goose Island, Elysian and Wicked Weed). Each brand fam's category weighted distribution (CWD) ranges from 76.4 for New Belgium to 11.4 for Wicked Weed. Most of them sold over $200 per item per store so far this yr, with Sierra at the high end with $277 and Goose Island at the low end with $181.But none of these big brand fams come close to the productivity of #6 growth brand fam in craft this yr, Russian River. It's the #27 craft brand fam overall in NIQ data, sporting a CWD of just 1.6 (i.e. sold in fewer than 2% of the NIQ-tracked stores that sell beer). Most impressively, Russian River got a whopping $1,103 in sales per item per store so far this yr. In other words, the in-demand brand still maintains a relatively tight distribution footprint and keeps its velocity (and price point) high in the relatively few stores where it sells.Just one other top 40 craft growth brand fam exceeds $1,000 in sales per item per store: much smaller Original Pattern out of Oakland, CA. It sports a tiny 0.5 CWD and ranks back at #116 craft brand fam by YTD $$, but #36 by $$ growth. In fact, it got about as much $$ growth so far this yr as #22 craft brand fam Georgetown and #6 craft brand fam Athletic, at least in this data. (Athletic's growth is so far much stronger in separate Circana data that tracks a bit closer to the co's all-outlet trends.)Lawson's, Georgetown and Other YTD Speed Demons What other smaller, local and regional craft brands punch above their weight and have velocity on their side early in 2026? The #25 craft brand fam in YTD NIQ data, Lawson's, ranks #12 by $$ growth and got $610 in sales per item per store, between 2 and 3x some more established craft brand fams. Three other top 40 growth brand fams sold $500-600 per item per store so far this yr: sizable PacNW craft star Georgetown, plus much-smaller CO-based Westbound & Down (#241 craft brand fam by $$) and FL's Oyster City (#184). NJ's Cape May came close at $499 per item per store YTD.Powerful Pockets in Items Per Store, Sales Per Store The 5 largest craft brand fams sold an avg of just over 4 items per outlet, compared to just 1 item sold by the bottom 500 craft brand fams, BWC analysis shows. But the roughly straight line between those two numbers is broken by a big exception. Brand fams #6-25 sold just about 3 items per outlet, whereas #26-50 sold 3.7, closer to the biggest natl brands. And that's again a function of focus, highlighting that regional and local brands can find meaningful scale in smaller footprints.This same group of craft brand fams, #26-50, also got an avg of $1,267 in sales per store in NIQ YTD, way ahead of most other groups. In fact, the group beats out the avg of the top 5 by over $250, 25%. After that, brand fams #51-125 rank next at around $900 per store, per BWC.Top Growers All Over the Map, Known and Lesser Known, Owned and On Their Own Back to that list of the 40 biggest $$ gains by craft brand fams, the list runs the gamut. Cigar City ranked just behind Russian River by YTD $$ growth, followed by Creature Comforts, Fort George and pFriem, 4 well-known names from opposite corners of the country. Trailhead from PA (way back at #279 craft brand fam by $$) got about as much growth in NIQ so far this yr as Lawson's, which just slightly beat out the growth of well-known regional brands Coronado in SoCal and Saint Arnold in Houston. Lager brand launched by Shiner's Spoetzl Brewery, Texas Special, ranked just behind its in-state competitor. After that comes Harland, Boneyard, Manhattan Project, Parish and Rhinegeist, all very different breweries operating at different scales from different markets.The list of top growers includes non-alc brand fams Go Brewing and Best Day as well as sizable craft brand fams like Allagash, Deschutes and Ninkasi. Much like Boneyard for Deschutes, Cali Squeeze makes the cut for Firestone and Ecliptic as part of the Ninkasi-led Great Frontier portfolio. And the list includes plenty of up-and-comers like Icicle, Fieldwork, Ghostfish, Fall River and Brewery X. The smallest players on the list (suggesting the largest % growth trends) are Iowa's Barn Town, back at #322 craft brand fam by $$ but #11 by growth with a CWD of just 0.1, and MA's Trillium, #427 and #39 and 0.3, respectively.Craft Improved More than Most Segments; Small/Mid-Sized Players More Likely to Grow In all, craft $$ declined 2.6% in NIQ data YTD thru Apr 18, BWC shared. But that's 2.6 pts better than calendar 2025 and 1.3 pts better than this period last yr. Only cider and hard seltzer improved by a wider margin vs yr ago. And craft improved just as much as imports compared to full yr 2025, the analysis highlights. Tho imports are growing vs last year.And while only 36% of all craft brand fams are growing so far this yr, that figure is dragged down by some of the largest and smallest craft brand fams. The top 100 craft brand fams contributed 78% of craft $$ YTD, collectively outperforming the segment, down just 1.3%. But only 37% of those brand fams are growing this yr. On the other hand, about 42% of the craft brand fams ranked #101-250, #251-500 and #501-1,000 grew YTD, again suggesting to BWC analysts that "regional/local opportunities still exist." That said, collective trends get progressively worse for the groups of smaller and smaller brand fams, speaking to the scale of declines experienced by some small brands, especially as many leave or are removed from the mkt.

Local Focus, "Grit and Persistence" Drive Gains in Craft, BWC Sez; 36% of Brand Fams Growing YTD

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