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Beer volume improved in Q1 2026 any way you slice it, but shipments were over 1.5 pts softer than sales-to-retailers for the qtr, available data suggests. Shipments slipped 3.2%, INSIGHTS estimates, including taxpaids -2.4%, imports down 6.5%. With beer CPI at home up 1.7%, suggests brewer revs were down slightly in the US to start the yr. Yet top brewer AB shipped ~3 pts behind depletions for the qtr. And imports into the country (tracked by US Dept of Commerce) clearly lagged their shipments to wholesalers, sales to retailers and sales to consumers, as import volume grew in tracked off-prem channels. So remainder of the yr sets up for some tailwinds on shipments. Yet Q2 sales in tracked channels are seeing notable pullback thru early-to-mid May and the #2 brewer MC expects a 6-9% shipments drop in Q2 (including non-alcs and incremental Monaco). Hard to say where that all nets out at this point. AB Lost Share of Shipments, Gained Share of STRs; MC Held Share of Shipments, Lost Share of STRs With AB's big gap between shipments and depletions, it lost share of beer shipments while gaining share of depletions. Teasing out growth from its RTD spirits and wine, AB's beer-only volume was around 1 pt softer than its total STWs (-3.2%) and STRs (+0.3%), we estimate. So AB beer shipments dipped 650K bbls, -4%. It was the other way around for MC's beer biz, which shipped ahead in Q1, holding share of shipments for the qtr while shedding share of STRs. MC beer shipments were down a little over 3% with depletions off 4%. Steeper dropoff in Q2 is likely to put MC back to share losses across the board; it continues to shed the most share in tracked off-prem channels. Tho both MC and AB are getting incremental boosts from beyond beer brands from here on, with BeatBox deal closing in early Mar, Monaco deal in early Apr, and Fever-Tree deal still all incremental 'til Jun 1. And AB beer's getting a big boost again from Busch Light Apple in Q2 (see below).Constellation Returned to Growth but Not Outta the Woods Yet Constellation shipments and depletions returned to growth in Q1 2026, a welcome sign after a tuff year prior. Yet Modelo Especial still not growin' depletions all-channel and Corona Extra remains soft, despite improved trends on both. Consistent growth from Pacifico, Victoria, Corona Familiar and Corona NA, plus turnarounds for Modelo Chelada, Corona Premier and Modelo Oro were able to boost STZ beer into positive territory. But it ain't outta the woods yet as we've seen notable slowdowns in Apr/early May scans including tuff trends in core STZ mkts. Tho it's still outperforming the industry and gaining share thruout.Mark Anthony Shipments Flat; Boston's Beer Down Double Digits; HUSA -6% Other than STZ, Mark Anthony was the only top 6 beer supplier to gain share of shipments as it was flat in Q1, driven by White Claw's growth. So MAB gained solid share. Boston Beer's beer shipments were down more than 11%, INSIGHTS estimates, over 4 pts softer when excluding fast-paced Sun Cruiser growth (and Dogfish Canned Cocktails to a far lesser extent). Tho shipments were softer lapping last yr's big inventory build and co's total depletions trend was a few pts better, down 4%. And HUSA volume slipped a little less than 6%, shedding share but much improved vs 2025 trends.Diageo Beer Still Hot; Yuengling Shipments Up; Pabst Improved; Smaller Growth Cos Next tier of top brewers were far healthier in Q1 collectively, led by Diageo Beer Co volume up 7% for the qtr. Only Constellation gained more bbls in Q1 than DBC, we estimate. Diageo Beer further solidified its position as the 7th largest brewer by volume in the US after surpassing Pabst last yr. Yet Pabst improved considerably too, down less than 1% in Q1, thanks to steadier supply. Yuengling shipments were up low single digits, we estimate, bolstered by new market launches. Among top craft brewers, New Belgium's volume trend improved and Sierra Nevada posted a solid shipments gain for the qtr. Below that, Athletic, Geloso, Happy Dad and Phusion are some of the strongest volume gainers industry-wide.1.6-Pt Slowdown in NIQ Since Apr 4; On-Prem Outperforming and "Gap is Widening," but Down The slowdown in Q2 (so far) has been most visible in tracked off-prem channels. Beer/FMB/cider volume skidded 6% for 4 wks thru May 2 in NIQ data. So yr-to-date trend softened 1.6 pts in that time, from -1.9% thru Apr 4 to -3.5% YTD thru May 2 in NIQ data. On-prem has consistently outperformed off-prem trends this yr and that "gap is widening," Beer Inst chief economist Andrew Heritage told INSIGHTS. Yet on-prem trends also softened since Q1.While part of the overall slowdown can be attributed to Easter holiday timing (Apr 5 this yr vs Apr 19 in 2025), there's increasing speculation across the industry about the impact of recent inflation uptick and gas prices specifically since the war in Iran began. That's a prospect Bernstein analyst Nadine Sarwat raised lookin' at "weaker" scan data, wondering if higher gas prices are "finally starting to bite." Report showed massive slowdowns in scans for certain big states like CA (16-pt deceleration), AZ (-10 pts), and TX (-6.6 pts) with CA "worth calling out" as its avg gas prices now over $6 per gallon.

Beer Shipments Slipped 3% in Q1, Lagging STRs; Driven by AB Gap & Imports Timing; Softer Start to Q2

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