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Craft's move toward both higher- and lower-ABVs was unmistakable in NIQ data provided by 3-Tier in yesterday's Thought Leadership Seminar, with >7%-ABV products making up more than 35% of craft $$ sales. By contrast, that number is just 11.6% for total beer. But high-ABV brews actually declined ~1% over last 52 wks, with 0-0.5%-ABV the only category growing sales, up 5.9% over the same period, reported 3-Tier's Tim Oldread and Devon Hevener, who were joined by New Trail dir of sales Jon Hoey. NA beer is nearly 5 share of total craft $$ sales in NIQ channels compared to 1.5 share of total beer. While there was encouraging $$ growth among smaller craft cos, led by Fiddlehead, bigger brands like Blue Moon posted losses 10x as big as those gains, contributing to a lower bottom line. New Belgium Leads, Fiddlehead Gains, Blue Moon Wanes New Belgium was the share leader at 10 share, up 0.5 pts from last yr, followed by Sierra Nevada at 7.2, up 0.3 pts. Other notable share gainers included Goose Island and Elysian, both having picked up around a quarter of a point. And while smaller bizzes are showing some nice $$ growth, led by Fiddlehead at +$2.67 mil, with (Deschutes-owned) Boneyard, Fort George and pFriem all up more than $2 mil, the losses on the flip side are literally 10x as large, with Blue Moon losing $26.1 mil, followed by Shiner, recently sold Stone and Sam Adams, all down ~$15 mil.Single-Serves Continue to Gain Share; Bottles Drop Dramatically Among pk sizes, single-serves were the only meaningful gainers, up 1% for total beer and 4.1% for craft, with 19.2oz leading the way on both, up 15% for total beer and 11% in craft. Meanwhile, can $$ sales fell 2.1% for total beer compared with a 6.2% drop for bottles, a discrepancy that was considerably larger in craft, where can $$ sales fell a comparable 2.5% but bottles were down 12.3%. Craft 6pks remain the best-selling options but were down 8.2% in $$ sales, followed by 12pks, which were down 2.4%. And pricing pressures have seen an exodus of craft, FMB and domestic premium drinkers to the domestic super premium and import categories, the data showed.Cider a Bright Spot Cider remains a bright spot, as it continues to grow, fueled by both local and natl cos. Local cideries made up only 33% of $$ sales in 2018 but have grown to 57%. Total cider $$ sales rose 3.6% to $645 mil, $274 mil of which was among nat'l brands (+3.8%) and $369 mil was among locals (+3.4%). The top 5 brands by $$ sales were Angry Orchard, 2 Towns, Incline, Blake's and Golden State Cider. Tho Angry Orchard still has a commanding lead in the segment and is driving the most growth of any cider fam by far this yr.Why New Trail is Targeting Lime Beer Category New Trail grew $$ sales 10.3% to $1.13 mil, which gave dir of sales Jon Hoey a leg up as he urged cos to "build your story with data" but "to convince yourself first." "The numbers can't lie to you, but what are they saying? People are not going to buy numbers. People are going to buy a story, buy a brand." Jon recommended testing out a brand story on brewery leadership before working outward to wholesale partners, then retailers, then the consumer: "Constantly unpeel the onion here," he stressed, because if it doesn't work out "at least you're going to sound smarter to your coworkers and wholesalers."Focusing specifically on the lime beer category, Jon talked about co's partnership with Penn St, for which it makes State Light and State Light Lime. Designed to compete with Garage Beer, he said the lime category was particularly ripe for competition, as Garage is already the 2d-biggest lime beer brand in the country by share behind Bud Light Lime, which, while it has has a 61 $$ share, is down 20.1 pts in a yr as Garage (15 share) and Busch Light Lime (11 share) have rapidly cut into its sales. Mostly he stressed to keep things simple, as customers want to think "what I have in my hand right now, I want to know what this tastes like, and I want it to be easy to understand."

Craft Trends: New Belgium Leads, Fiddlehead Gains, Blue Moon Wanes, Sez 3-Tier; Cider a Bright Spot; Lime Beer a Focus for New Trail

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