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After a better start in 2026, beer biz unfortunately hit another rough patch in Apr-May and continues soft as we enter peak selling season. Volume down 6% in NIQ data for 4 weeks thru May 16. Memorial Day Weekend sell-thru "lackluster" and "so-so" even in some key areas that had great weather, according to some sizable distribs. However, only one distrib INSIGHTS talked to said sales "a disaster." And another guy in a tuff weather mkt on holiday weekend said simply "not as bad as we thought it would be." So a slight silver lining. Hopefully, the anticipated boost from World Cup and America's 250th anniversary this summer will manifest as suppliers expect. There are lots of puts and takes and sources are already questioning size of pop from these events. While beer biz encountered more unexpected hiccups this spring, marketplace remains very fluid and conditions could change again. Current weakness comes after yet another shock to the system, the sharp increase in fuel prices following the Iran war. Beer is certainly not immune to issue of affordability. Gas is a "major" issue that's putting tremendous pressure on brewers and distributors alike, sources say. Indeed, many of the strategic moves by both suppliers and distribs broadly labeled as "convergence" are aimed at combating ongoing industry declines.How much is the industry down in the last few years? Shipments volume dropped 31 mil bbls, 14.4% in last 4 yrs, 2021-2025. And it's down again so far in 2026. So this is 5th down yr in a row, albeit so far a considerably less steep drop than the 5% drop last yr. Recall, shipments still down 3% in Q1 but sales-to-retailers down just 1.6% (see last issue). With steeper drops since then, STR YTD decline now also likely ~3%.Given ongoing trends like these and markedly higher gas prices, beer industry pricing under a bit more pressure than usual these days. That's certainly the buzz. But it's not totally evident in data. Beer CPI (consumer price index) up 2% yr-to-date thru Apr. And beer industry prices overall still trending up 1.6% yr-to-date in available scan data with smaller front-line increases and ongoing trade-up. Up 1.4% for 4 weeks thru May 17 in Circana multi-outlet + convenience, including AB up 1.1%. There was increased promo activity leading up to Memorial Day.Some of most aggressive pricing moves showing up for hottest brands/segments. For example, Mich Ultra 24pks priced below Bud Light over Memorial Day weekend in Walmarts across several markets (see below). And hot Athletic NA portfolio averaging $2 less per case than a yr ago, as is Corona 0.0. (Some of that from bigger push on larger pack sizes.) Another watchout: subpremiums gaining slight share in latest period, tho that's largely short-term driven by success of Busch Light Apple.RTD spirits still getting outsized growth and remain the biggest exception to overall malaise seemingly pervading beer, wine and spirits. Up 35% thru May 16 in NIQ data. And at much higher prices. RTD consumers likely less cost-conscious than beer consumers, tho some may be trading up/drinking less. Each of AB (BeatBox), MC (Atomic) and Mark Anthony Brands (Finnish Long Drink) did recent deals in this space. Spent over $1 bil between them. And beer distribs selling most of hottest current RTDs and acquiring wine and spirits assets in their own convergence moves.

As Beer Biz Hits Another Rough Patch, Some Pricing Pressure Emerging; RTDs Still Flyin'

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