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The hemp bev biz keeps barreling towards the fed ban in Nov without clear signs of a bailout. Tho some remain optimistic, even some supporters threw cold water recently. Don't expect much with Sen Mitch McConnell still in his seat, Sen Ted Cruz told the Hemp Industry & Farmers of America (HIFA), per a report in The Hill last wk, tho things might shift next yr if Rep Andy Barr gets that seat. Barr's working on a standalone bill expected soon, but even that isn't universally supported within the overall hemp industry, the outlet noted. "I would expect" that "bill to be filed" before the July 4 recess, Total Wine & More svp Eric Brewer explained during NCSLA conference in New Orleans this wk. And it will "address" some of the alc bev industry's core concerns about hemp operating on a level playing field, he assured. "It should look similar" and ensure "THC is regulated like alcohol," addressing trade practice issues like slotting fees, "the whole 9 yards." What happened in Texas is the "same playbook we're trying to use at the federal level," he said, hoping hemp bevs "move into the 3-tier system." (Editor's Note: Republican congresswoman Beth Van Duyne of Texas is expected to intro a separate bill seeking to stave off the ban and broadly mirror alc bev regs, including proposed oversight from TTB, per Marijuana Moment.) Asked how to bet on whether the ban goes into effect late this yr, Eric said he's "51% optimistic that something will get worked out."But the panel of hemp and cannabis experts covered a wide range of views, founding prexy of Cannabis Regulators Assn Norm Birenbaum, a former state regulator from RI and NY, describing himself as the "wet blanket" on stage. (Norm currently works at FDA, tho he spoke solely on his own behalf, not for the agency.) The "vast majority of hemp products are not lawful," he reminded, as food and drinks are considered "adulterated product" by fed law. Laws consistently draw distinctions between hemp-derived THC and marijuana, tho "functionally, there should be none." Fed marijuana policy could change further, tho, with a hearing late this mo on rescheduling recreational use, not just medical use, in states that have taken that path.State Laws May Hold Post-Nov, Depending; Ancillary Bizzes the Big Differentiator; Contingency Plans As has been the case all year, all eyes are on what happens in Nov if Congress doesn't act further. One of key questions continues to be how states will respond to the federal shift. "Selling cannabis is in our law," pointed out Thomas Akras, dir at Maryland's Alcohol, Tobacco & Cannabis Commission. Federally speaking, folks in the state are "not supposed to be selling recreational marijuana," but it's legal at the state level. As other states have done, Maryland put most hemp products into the dispensary system. And the feds are "not going to shut our marijuana industry down," he knows. That said, there are illicit THC products on the market, with the worst offenders showing up in smoke shops. Some argue that there are "still federal protections in place" and some courts "buy that argument," Thomas noted. But that's a tougher case to make come Nov.When it comes to hemp bevs, it's "not a question for November," Norm commented, but for "September 1," or so. The real challenge arises for "all the ancillary service providers that have allowed the industry to operate at scale": the banks and e-commerce service providers, railways, shipping cos and more. Those bizzes won't be willing to engage in "unlawful trafficking" of controlled substances, Norm estimates. And alc bev distribs are not going to let a "relatively small amount of controlled substances on those trucks" endanger their core biz. So hemp is likely to be "constrained far before November," he thinks. And if hemp becomes marijuana again, it's likely to need to go thru state systems, which are closed loops and fully intrastate. "If you take out interstate commerce," it's just not the same biz as it is now.Hemp bev brand owners facing down those realities are thinking along two tracks, explained atty Shuana Barnes, who represents a number of 'em. On one hand, they "don't want to wind [their] business down completely," because "what if we get a hail mary vote?" But they're also doing "disaster planning for the end." There's careful combing thru distrib contracts to ensure they can repurchase inventory, which at this point they're "ruthlessly managing," Shauna said. Come late this yr, "people who care about the rules" will "pivot to something else." Many of her clients are looking at moving into other bev options, including alcohol and canned cocktails as well as energy drinks, functional bevs and more. But if the good actors split, then "all we have are the bad actors" who are "making the Prohibition equivalent of bathtub gin." So she echoed a sentiment expressed by Eric: the demand won't disappear. In her view, that points to the need for regulation and taxation so there can be proper enforcement, as well.Restaurant Group Latest to Urge Rescue of Hemp Bevs As that Nov deadline looms, major lobbying orgs are getting more vocal about not decimating a promising sector. Yesterday it was Natl Restaurant Assn that called on Congress to delay the ban and instead "establish a clear regulatory framework that ensures consumer safety and supports restaurant operators serving these products." That framework "should also empower state and local governments to tailor market-specific rules, similar to how alcohol beverages are regulated," NRA offered. It estimates that 5% of restaurants that serve alcohol currently offer D9 bevs and 26% of all eateries are interested in offering them under a clear regulatory framework, a market NRA estimates at $1.6 bil annually.

Hemp Outlook Still Dark, tho Barr Bill to Address Alc Bev Concerns; Constraints to Come Before Nov

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