Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Russian River's once a year release of its sour beer, Beatification, drew literally "hundreds of fans" standing in line for hours this past Saturday morning to sample the limited release brew, reported the Press Democrat. Starting in the middle of the night. The first people in line were there by 1:30 AM Saturday, according to brewery co-owner Natalie Cilurzo. "It's probably one of the top three sours in the world," one fan told paper. Already by 4:00 PM Saturday, 800 of the 1200 cases of Beatification made were sold, Natalie noted.  

In shift of typical discussion over excise tax bills, and seemingly in response to NY Post editorial and other sources claiming Small BREW picks winners while BEER assists all brewers, Brewers Assn staff economist Bart Watson laid out "accumulated" and "distribution of benefits" of both bills in "A Tale of Two Tax Bills" to BA blog last week. Besides BEER being "25 times more costly than" Small BREW, to the federal government that is, "85% of the benefits," to brewers that is, "accrue to the two-largest firms." So by this cut, the BA seems to be working to poke holes in repeated Beer Institute argument that BEER does not ask legislators to "pick winners and losers." If winners must be picked then, Bart asks "in an era of fiscal austerity and slow job growth, which one makes more sense?"  

Craft brewers collectively provided $33.9 bil in economic impact to US economy in 2012 thru estimated 360K jobs (direct and indirect), according to latest release from Brewers Assn, including over 108,000 jobs directly at brewers and brewpubs. Analysis by staff economist Bart Watson identified 2012 output and impact per 21+ adult ("per capita") for all 50 states and DC. Results are based on data received via BA's annual production and best-practices surveys of members filtered thru IMPLAN software to identify economic output.

Calif's $4.7 bil in 2012 output was more than twice $2.3 bil in Tex, which was followed closely by NY ($2.2 bil), Pennsy ($2.0 bil) and Colo ($1.6 bil). But Oreg comes out on top when analyzing breweries' output per 21+ adult. Oreg breweries provided an average of almost $449 per capita in 2012, more than 3x the national average of $149.46. Colo and Vermont were only two other states with per capita outputs over $400, while Maine and Mont were only other two over $300. Calif's big output divvies up to above-average $173 per 21+ adult, while Tex's per capita output is below average at about $129. Alaska, Del, Wyo and NH breweries all create output well above average.

Southeast continues to lag in this measurement: SC, Miss, Alabama and Fla created less than half the natl average output per capita. Fla's output only at $60 per 21+ adult. Average wages per state (including brewpub servers and staff) vary widely, according to the study, from almost $53K in DC to less than $27K in Mont.  

Craft brewers collectively provided $33.9 bil in economic impact to US economy in 2012 thru estimated 360K jobs (direct and indirect), according to latest release from Brewers Assn, including over 108,000 jobs directly at brewers and brewpubs. Analysis by staff economist Bart Watson identified 2012 output and impact per 21+ adult ("per capita") for all 50 states and DC. Results are based on data received via BA's annual production and best-practices surveys of members filtered thru IMPLAN software to identify economic output.

Calif's $4.7 bil in 2012 output was more than twice $2.3 bil in Tex, which was followed closely by NY ($2.2 bil), Pennsy ($2.0 bil) and Colo ($1.6 bil). But Oreg comes out on top when analyzing breweries' output per 21+ adult. Oreg breweries provided an average of almost $449 per capita in 2012, more than 3x the national average of $149.46. Colo and Vermont were only two other states with per capita outputs over $400, while Maine and Mont were only other two over $300. Calif's big output divvies up to above-average $173 per 21+ adult, while Tex's per capita output is below average at about $129. Alaska, Del, Wyo and NH breweries all create output well above average.

Southeast continues to lag in this measurement: SC, Miss, Alabama and Fla created less than half the natl average output per capita. Fla's output only at $60 per 21+ adult. Average wages per state (including brewpub servers and staff) vary widely, according to the study, from almost $53K in DC to less than $27K in Mont.  

A different sort of revolutionary inspired Boston Beer for imagery of new Rebel IPA, a departure for the company from both a packaging and flavor standpoint. The "splashy red and white design" for its 6-packs, as described by Boston Biz Journal, breaks free of traditional Samuel Adams imagery, seemingly inspired more by punk and graffiti artists. Bartenders in Boston and few other markets currently pull the brand from spray paint can-shaped tap handles that reference the splotches and splashes on packaging.

Many more beer drinkers will see the bright red handle in Jan, when the brand goes nationwide on draft, according to the article. Packaged product is due in Feb. Described as a "West Coast IPA," Rebel represents Sam Adams biggest and boldest play in a style that continues to drive much of craft's growth. IPAs represented over 18.5 share of $$ yr-to-date in latest IRI multi-outlet + convenience thru Dec 1, + 44.1% and close to $100 mil. That was about 35% of the segment's growth overall and almost 12% of total beer $$ growth YTD.

Recall, Boston chairman Jim Koch has repeatedly reminded of his insistence on balance when it comes to flavor. As such, Rebel "goes down much smoother than a typical IPA, without the bitterness that is the style's trademark," per Boston Biz Journal. The brand also gives Boston a chance to remind drinkers of its "nanobrewery" at its Jamaica Plains plant, essentially a pilot system where Rebel was born. Boston Beer also expands Anytime IPA (Just IPA re-named, see Nov 21 issue) in a bigger way next yr thru its Alchemy & Science division. But Rebel, part of Boston's core Sam Adams business, is likely to get priority in increasingly competitive segment.  

More good news for Lagunitas; its Little Sumpin' Sumpin' jumped Redhook ESB and Deschutes Inversion IPA to reach top 30 craft brands in IRI multi-outlet + convenience thru 12/1. At #29, Little Sumpin' $$ sales up a stunning 181%, volume up 179% yr-to-date thru 12/1. The brand has slowed down a bit (if you can call it that) in last 13 weeks to $$ up 132%, volume up 128%. Lagunitas IPA still churnin' away. Volume and $$ up 71% ytd, and $$ up 77%, volume up 74% in latest 13 weeks. The two brands combined have just under 2 share of total craft $$, and together grabbed additional 0.73 share YTD. Total co is up 86% YTD in IRI.

Then too, winter seasonals seem to be kickin' into gear in recent weeks for big 3 - Sam, Sierra, and New Belgium. Sam Seasonal $$ up 19% in 4 weeks, up 13% YTD, and both Sierra (+13%) and NBB (+12%) seasonals are up low double digits in 4 weeks thru 12/1, compared to flat for the yr. Total craft seasonal $$ up 18.6% in latest 4 weeks, up 15% YTD. 
Lengthy feature on Goose Island in this morn's Ad Age sez "the doubters seem to have been proved wrong." The mag headlines not only that ABI a "good home" for Goose, but that "Big Brewer Helps Cult Craft Rise." Goose has "managed to hold on to its street cred," asserts Ad Age.

Goose Will Get More "Aggressive"; New Ads In Jan, Goose "will begin getting more aggressive," noted Ad Age, "when it launches its first ad campaign under its first ad agency" Chi-based VSA Partners. Campaign will be "partly aimed at gaining awareness in new markets" as Goose will be "careful to maintain its image as a gritty urban brewer known for an innovative pipeline of specialty beers," such as Sofie and Lolita. The "push includes print, out-of-home and a digital video," and the tagline is "To What's Next."

Goose Plays By Its Own Rules The campaign wasn't "subject to the rigorous copy testing standards" ABI is "known for," said Ad Age, an "example of how Goose execs say they are operating independently from their parent." Goose ceo Andy Goeler sez: "We get very, very, very little direction from Anheuser Busch…. We bought Goose Island for what Goose Island was: authentic, very credible…. The intent was not to change any of that but to continue to evolve it and let it move to the next level."

Goose's "Cult Following"; Bourbon County; Barrel-Aged "How much of a cult following does Goose Island have" asked Ad Age. "On Black Friday, hundreds of people stood in long lines in cities such as Austin and New York to snare Bourbon County Stout, a rare barrel-aged beer." Even "beer geeks agree," Beer Advocate columnist Andy Crouch told Ad Age, Goose's line of barrel-aged beers "remain among the best-produced in the country." Tho Goose's largest beers are made at other AB breweries, that has "freed space for more experimentation at the Chicago brewery," noted Ad Age. Goose also "gets access to an AB-InBev owned hop farm in Idaho where the craft brewer controls its own plot." That's "birthplace of a hop" in new Goose Island seasonal dubbed Ten Hills Pale Ale, "crafted with no consumer testing or market research," sez Ad Age, "relying on the creativity of Brewmaster Brett Porter."

With Goose Growing Rapidly, Are Other Deals Coming? ABI Strategy Goose brands up 62% for 52 weeks ending Nov 3 in IRI, notes Ad Age. But Goose Island really just filled pipeline for much of this yr as it expanded to many new mkts. Next yr becomes a more significant test of Goose as a growth platform. Goose Island is already selling 3x the volume and making 10x the EBITDA as when ABI bought it less than 3 yrs ago, as ABI execs recently noted. Considering how well this has worked so far, why would AB not want to do some more craft deals? ABI reportedly has strategy to acquire a handful of other craft brewers on a regional basis.  

One of Portland, Oreg's newest brewers is an old friend of craft beer drinkers. John Harris helped create classic Deschutes brands Mirror Pond Pale Ale and Black Butte Porter then spent 20 years at Full Sail during which time he saw the Oreg brewer "grow to 80,000 barrels, shrink back to almost 50,000 barrels and then grow back to over 100,000 barrels," John said in extended interview with The Street. He's spent last yr and half planning Ecliptic Brewing, a brewpub in North Portland that opened this fall. In assessing the crowded Portland market, John identified that "no one is making sure that the food is at the same level as the beer," so he decided Ecliptic would "really have a more food-focused environment." In Portland, "food is king," according to John, yet "nobody's connected the dots to the point where no brewery is considered among the Top 100 restaurants in town." While Ecliptic "is all about the food," the brewing facility has enough capacity "to make 75 barrels a week, and that adds up to almost 3,000 barrels a year." So, "the idea is to grow the wholesale side from the get-go," using a distributor so John "won't have the headache of the trucks and drivers." Ecliptic's first bottled release, Filament Winter IPA, hit shelves this week. Bottles of a collaboration with Cigar City will be available at the brewpub and in Tampa.  

Baxter Brewing announced that it "will be available throughout New Hampshire beginning next month," in press release earlier today. They have partnered with Bayside and Amoskeag Distributing, both part of MC network. Tho co is right next door in neighboring state of ME, "until now we hadn't been able to make enough beer to even supply our existing markets," sez CEO Luke Livingston. "Recent new construction has expanded the brewery's capacity by more than 400%," to 33,000 plus bbls, noted press release, "so at last, we can supply our nearest neighbors," added Luke. Recall, Baxter entered VT with G Housen earlier this mo.  
Stiff competition seems to be leading to lower prices for craft beer shoppers at some North Texas outlets. Retailers pointed to competition for shelf-space among brewers while brewers pointed to growing competition for alcohol sales among retailers in a Fort Worth Star-Telegram article printed this week. In North Texas, food stores compete against big box retailers whether focusing on alcohol or across all categories. Brewers must "be more aggressive to get market share," food chain Central Market's Chris Bostad told the paper.

Retailers like Trader Joe's, Aldi and Costco sell lower-priced private label offerings, according to the article, even though selling such exclusive brands goes against Texas' alc bev code, Rick Donley of Beer Alliance of Texas, one of two Tex wholesaler assns, told CBN. All these also compete against "so-called category killers like Total Wine," pegged as selling Sierra Nevada Pale Ale 12-packs at $11.99, plus new intro of Houston liquor super-store Spec's into DFW and Dallas chain Goody Goody's expanding to Fort Worth. "Much more competition between retailers than existed in the era of wet/dry precincts and a limited number of liquor store chains" has led to "retailers working at lower margins," according to Saint Arnold founder Brock Wagner. While St. Arnold has increased prices "due to higher raw material costs," some retailers have dropped their prices. Both Central Market and Total Wine price "core Sierra Nevada styles at $6.49," according to the article, with Leinenkugel brands at $5.99. That's as Trumer Pils is now at $6.99 at Central Market while "it fetched upwards of $9.98 a six-pack several years ago."

Our own price checks didn't turn up too much discounting in Dallas Kroger's, with Sam Adams, Blue Moon, Corona and Modelo 12-packs at $14.99. That's as Boston Lager, Blue Moon and Fat Tire 12-packs are priced at $12.99 in Dallas Total Wine outlets, with Modelo and Sam seasonals a dollar higher and Sierra brands a dollar lower and 6-packs at $6.49. Other craft sixers were more standard: Lagunitas and Anchor for $8.99, Stone for $9.49, Dogfish Head for $9.99 and Ballast Point at $13.99. An Austin Spec's had Sierra 12-packs at $11.99 too last weekend, with Alaskan 6-packs at $6.79 and Saint Arnold and New Belgium at $6.99.