Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

With a better start to 2012, lotsa new product news, a ton of retail programs and info, all enthusiastically delivered, AB’s natl wholesaler meeting in New Orleans showed a sunnier side to ABI. There were still some tuff messages, and many distribs do not feel connected to the new co, but AB is showing signs of progress in early 2012. Perhaps it’s simply that improved results cure a lot of ills. “The ship is turning,” said AB execs after the meeting.

The meeting featured big role for hi-energy new sales veep David Almeida. He talked a lot about winning and the return of “some momentum in our business.” Tho AB doesn’t give forward guidance, AB started off 2012 well, with a lot of incremental volume from Bud Light Platinum intro and great weather. Bud Light Platinum trial at 2x the level of Bud Light Lime and repeat at same % levels, noted mktg veep Paul Chibe. Then too, “our industry is starting to show some signs of improvement,” said North American prexy Luiz Edmond. “Our results this year will be much better than last year,” added Luiz. “We are committed to win in the US market, to grow both share and profitability in a sustainable way.”

Last yr, AB share down 0.6%, according to Beer Inst data, cited by AB. But “we didn’t chase volume down through pricing,” noted David. Still, AB share loss is “bothering,” especially “our performance in convenience stores,” added David, including loss of share of points of distribution. AB has “concrete actions in place” to combat all of this and “loss of distribution has already reversed and subsided.” AB will be coming with 15 new FMB skus and 7 new brands or flavors, including Bud Light Lime-a-Rita, Tilt Hard Lemon, Mich Ultra 19th Hole, plus 2 Margaritaville flavors and 2 Bacardi flavors. Meanwhile, AB gaining ground rapidly in hi-end as Mission 6 brands gained 1.6 share of hi-end in SIG data in Jan to nearly 10 share, growing 38% in mo.
“This will be the best year for beer category innovation in a long time,” Symphony IRI Group sr veep Dan Wandel told INSIGHTS this morn and “will most likely exceed 2008,” yr of Bud Light Lime launch. It will include full yr of Platinum, but many other moves besides that. Dan shared with INSIGHTS comparision of 1st 6 weeks of SIG 4-channel data for Bud Light Platinum, Bud Light Lime and Bud Light Golden Wheat. Bud Light Platinum easily sold most of the 3 (even tho it entered in Jan compared to BLL in late Apr). It sold 978,000 cases in SIG for 6 weeks thru Feb 19 (including 2 very small weeks) and got 1 share of $$ in combined channels. That compared to 856,000 cases and 0.8 share of $$ for 6 weeks thru May 25, 2008 for Bud Light Lime. And 294,000 cases and 0.3 share of $$ for Bud Light Golden Wheat for 6 weeks thru Oct 25, 2009. For 2 weeks surrounding Super Bowl, Bud Light Platinum sold at much higher levels. Grabbed 1.4 share of cases and 1.7 share of $$ in SIG food/drug/mass/conv for 2 weeks thru Feb 12. It was the 14th largest brand in $$ sales during period. That catapulted AB to 2.9% volume gain for 2 weeks (AB basically flat ex-Platinum) and it even gained share as total beer biz up 1.9% in same period. Meanwhile, MillerCoors off 0.5%. Other big gainers included Crown, Pabst and Boston Beer each up double digits. Heineken up solidly too, 6%. Yuengling up a whopping 57%, gained 3d most cases for 2 week period, behind AB and Crown. Yuengling at 12.3 share in Oh supers for 13 weeks thru Feb 19, Dan told INSIGHTS this morn.
Crown revs at $2.470 bil for full yr 2011, Grupo Modelo reported. That’s up $134 mil, 5.7%. But operating income just even at $435 mil. That meant oper margin declined by a full point from 18.6% to 17.6%. In 4th qtr, operating margin just 15%, as both sales and income flat from a yr ago (sales-to-retailers up solidly, but Crown drawing down inventories it had built up over summer). Crown revs at $552 mil in 4th qtr 2011 and 2010.

Total Modelo revs jumped over $500 mil, 7% to $7.145 mil in 2011. About 53% of Modelo revs in domestic sales. Mexican sales up 10%, with volume up 6% and rev per bbl up 4%. Not bad. Modelo EBITDA also jumped 10% to $2.15 bil. That’s a 30% EBITDA margin, and it expanded by 80 basis points. So Modelo’s total revs about same size as MillerCoors, but its profits almost double. Yet its margins also fully 10-15 points lower than its 50% owner ABI, depending on whether you’re talking about Brazil or North America. Fifteen additional points of margin would be over $1 billion in incremental profits. Yet Modelo is presently winning in marketplace in both US and Mexico.
In 4th qtr, imports “absolute case volume growth was equal to craft,” HUSA prexy Dolf van den Brink told Beer Biz Daily’s Summit, citing that as evidence of “luster” regained. “The key is to regain your core consumer,” Dolf added. With 44% of Heineken consumption from multicultural consumers, “that was a drag” in middle of economic crisis, but “longterm that is one of the biggest assets of the brand…. We need to turn the green” and despite recent improvements, increased mktg, “too soon to declare a victory.” Marketing is about “consistency,” so Heineken looking at 3-5 yr turnaround, said Dolf. As for #2 priority brand, Dos Equis, “we see it accelerating,” said Dolf, citing 30% Jan gain in Nielsen. “The brand keeps surprising us. It was up over 35% in Texas” where it is most developed and up double digits in each region. Dos Equis Lager is 75% of Dos brand family. Amber can be “a second growth engine” tho it “should never ever come to the detriment of lager.” Amber up high single digits in 2011.

A couple of other interesting points came up in q&a. Asked about potential acquisitions of craft brewers, Dolf said: “At this point in time, that is not something we are focusing on.” Heineken has 10 brands and is about to launch Indio, its eleventh, so there’s plenty to keep it busy. Asked about cider tho, Dolf said Heineken is the “global market leader in cider,” led by its Strongbow brand in UK and “that’s surely something we’ll be looking at” in US too (Strongbow is imported to US by Vermont Hard Cider, #1 US cider co).
Another top Pabst exec is gone. CMO Bryan Crowley completes a trifecta of Pabst’s most sr leaders that have left abruptly in last 2 mos. That included former ceo John Cochran and coo Chris Steffanci. Each lasted less than a yr at Pabst. But Bryan, who started at Pabst in May 2011, lasted 2x as long as his predecessor Jon Sayer, who was only at Pabst for 4 mos.
Lotsa reasons for solid 5.3%, 680,000-bbl taxpaid shipments gain in Jan estimated by Lester Jones at Beer Inst. Jan had extra ship day, great weather in much of country, AB rolled Bud Light Platinum and you couldn’t ask for easier comp. Still it’s a good start. Recall that last Jan was down 2.6% and Jan 2010 had taken a huge 1.2-mil-bbl, 8% hit. Even Jan 2009 was a downer. So Jan 2012 was 2.6% better than Jan 2010, but still 1.1 mil bbls lower than Jan 2008. Ain’t sure what that means in grand scheme of things. In any case, at least yr got off on right foot, supporting lotsa anecdotal input and some other data points that Jan a strong mo. Feb has similar 3-yr history of very soft comps.
02/16/2012

Correction:

INSIGHTS overstated amount of change in AB sales regions since advent of David Almeida as sales veep. Region veep Bill Jones retired. And now John Coleman left for Pabst. That’s 2 of 8. And Keith Diggs (not Driggs) only promoted to Bill Jones slot in region 5 late last yr, hadn’t even moved yet. Now goes back to Region 6 as Henry Dominguez moves to Calif to take John’s slot. And Tom Doyle also promoted to veep in Region 5. So really only 3 changes, based on 2 departures.
ABI’s purchase of Czech brewer BMP last yr and recent order by Agriculture Ministry to audit finances of state-owned Budvar is leading to speculation that time is ripe for ABI to buy brewer and effectively put end to decades old dispute over Budweiser name in Europe, reported Prague Post. While purchase of BMP “financially insignificant,” it “could lend force to AB’s assertion of rights to use the Budweiser label in Europe,” trademark experts told paper. They point out name Budweiser “is like Champagne,” and all brewers in region may use it. “Very clever of the Americans to buy one of them,” noted one local trademark atty, who apparently doesn’t know who’s running ABI these days.
Molson Coors reported international volume declined 0.7% to 41.2 mil bbls in 2011. That was based on 53-wk yr tho, take out extra week and volume fell slightly more: -1.3% to 40.95 mil bbls. US volume down 3%, while Canadian volume off 1%. UK volume up 3.2% and tiny intl biz jumped 50.5%, improving on gain of 27% in 2010. Global net sales grew 8% to $3.5 bil in 2011. Cost of goods up 13%, while MGA up 0.7%. 2012 is expected “to be as challenging as 2011 in all of our markets,” said ceo Peter Swinburn. In 2012, co will continue to “focus on core brands,” execute innovation to drive growth and look at “prudent growth opportunities” thru M&A. Molson Coors said thru Feb 4 of this yr, STRs in US and Canada were down “low-single digits,” while off “mid-single digits,” in UK.

Molson Coors Q4 income gain of 57% to $173.2 mil, or $0.95 per share blew past analyst estimates of $0.71, per poll by Thomson Reuters. That was first beat for co in 5 qtrs. But that “big beat,” was mostly “due to timing of cost saves and lower incentive compensation,” noted Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs. She remains Neutral on Molson Coors “as we do not believe the fundamental outlook” has improved. Volumes in Canada will continue to “be challenged” from competitive price pressures, added Judy. Pumping up mktg spend, pension costs and higher tax rates are among “myriad” of headwinds for MC, cited by Dara Mohsenian of Morgan Stanley. “When coupled with negative operating leverage from anemic volumes, there will likely be an even sharper focus on harvesting cost savings – a daunting task given the large amount of productivity savings already realized,” added Dara.
After the short tenures of Pabst’s last leadership teams, lotsa keen curiousity about who would next take reins at Pabst, under co-ceos and owners Evan, Daren and Dean Metropoulos. Following an intensive search, Pabst Brewing has found its answers. Hired 2 longtime well-regarded AB employees as prexy and operations veep, it announced to distribs yesterday.

AB region veep John Coleman becomes president and Scott Mennen joins Pabst as operations veep, having most recently been respectively Western region vp and AB’s Global Director of Brewing and Quality “with worldwide responsibilities.” Scott replaces longtime Pabst ops veep Bill Radtke who will retire but stay on as consultant. “John combines extensive industry experience with a fire within to join a smaller company and help it realize its huge potential,” Pabst co-owners Evan and Daren Metropoulos said in a statement. At AB, John “responsible for approximaely $1.6 bil” in revs when he left. Scott spent 24 yrs at AB.

Many know and speak well of John, and someone who worked with Scott told INSIGHTS: “He's a very hard worker, lots of integrity. I like him as a person and as someone to work with… I think people will be pleased with his dedication.” So John and Scott join a growing list of former AB execs that are now using their long-honed skills to compete against AB, including at several craft brewers, plus key Kraftig execs and more.

These announcements just in advance of Pabst’s distributor council meeting next week and come during stretch when Pabst biz looks good in available data. Yesterday, MillerCoors said its contract production biz up 11% in 4th qtr, and that’s virtually all Pabst. MC contract biz just even for full yr 2011. Then too, Pabst Brewing volume up 10% for 13 weeks in Symphony IRI Group food/drug/convenience data thru Jan 22.