Interesting study from Australia showed that women?s risk of injury "significantly elevated for any consumption of alcohol," even as low as a couple of drinks over a 6-hr period. But risk for men "elevated only when consumption exceeded 7 drinks" in 6 hrs.

SAB stock price dipped from $8.38 to $7.95 since Miller deal announced. Had been as low as $6.00 on Jan 30. Coors share price up 14% thru Jul 1. AB share price up 10%. PM stock price off 4%. Modelo and Diageo share prices up about 10% YTD, FEMSA 7%. Microbrewer stocks flat or down.

Still ragin? in 8 states, noted atty Richard Blau in annual legal wrap-up to state liquor admins last mo. Tho tide "seems in favor" of state laws that ban direct shipments, recent decisions that went other way in Va and NC suggest those in favor of direct shipments "have plenty of wind in their sails." Other issues: Richard noted 3 US Dist Ct decisions in 2001 rejected claims "that alcohol is inherently dangerous," as other courts have. But "fact that these kinds of cases are again in litigation is a potentially ominous sign of trouble ahead for the industry." Also lotsa new cases where local zoning laws being used to restrict "where, when and how" alc bevs are marketed and sold.

All Others, that is brewers and importers below top 4, did even better in group of states where data not reported individually.  Grabbed another 2 share in 2001, continuing strong ascent. (Non-reporting states include corridor of  East coast states where imports do especially well: Conn, NY, NJ, Pennsy, Del, Md, Va, NC and DC, plus Ky, Alas and exports.  About 1 share of gain comes from including Molson in All Others in 2001, instead of Miller.)  Since 96, All Others have gained 7 share to 23.4 while total mkt stayed flat.  So All Others got 1/3 of their US total in 10 non-reporting states and exports that were 50.3 mil bbls in 2001, about 1/4 of volume.   Gained 1 mil bbls, 9.5% in 2001 in 10 non-reporting states, DC and exports, while total mkt dipped slightly. After yrs of declines in this group, AB up just slightly in 01.  It gained 0.3 share to 39.4.  AB gained almost no share in this group of states over last 5 yrs (at 39.0 in 96).  Meanwhile, Miller off 640,000 bbls, 7.5% in 2001, but a good chunk of that was Molson brands it sold in 2000 (especially in NY) but not in 2001.  Amounted to almost 1/3 of Miller’s natl drop.  Miller at 15.7 share in this group, down 3 in last 5 yrs.  Coors passed Miller by dropping less in region.  Off 2% after yrs of growth, but still shipped 7.9 mil bbls, almost 40% of its volume in this group.  And Pabst dropped 540,000 bbls, 16% in these states and exports; fell to under 6 share. 

64% of AB volume now sold by exclusive distribs, according to recent report by Prudential analyst Jeffrey Kanter. "Apparently there are now 16 new exclusive BUD wholesalers year-to-date, with an additional 25 mil cases." Increased "focus" and "retailer touch" time that exclusive distribs get vs competitors with lots more SKUs increases "competitive advantage" for AB distribs, sez Jeff, who also thinks stronger AB distrib economics may translate to faster share gains down the road for AB.

Jul 1 was big day for US beer biz. August Busch III officially stepped down as prexy of AB Cos, and for 1st time in 142 years family member won't be chief exec. Pat Stokes succeeds August as prexy/CEO of AB Cos, tho August will still have lotsa influence as chairman of the board and member of strategy committee. Recent profile in St Lou Post-Dispatch quoted consultant Bob Weinberg and mgmt science prof Russell Ackoff about how August intro?d "scientific management" style, skills and systems at AB, was early adopter of long-range planning and proved adept at "anticipating change and shifting gears rapidly." ?? SAB board passed resolution to finalize SABMiller and FTC gave SAB antitrust clearance. SAB's CEO Graham Mackay said SAB looking to "further strengthen and develop our presence" in US, continue building in established mkts and "seek value-adding investments where opportunities present themselves."

Folks watchin’ TV shows on personal video recorders zipped past commercials 71% of time, according to survey CNW Marketing Research.  That’s no shock, but gotta note beer ads skipped just 33% of the time, one of lowest tune-out rates.   

Connecticut House just passed .08 BAC limit and state Senate expected to act soon. In Britain, Fin Times reports House of Lords committee recommended lowering BAC from .08 to .05 and criticized UK govt for not doing it already. How long before there?s strong .05 push in US?

Fun situation with baseball All-Star game in Milwaukee.  AB is official league sponsor but shut out of Miller Park.  AB brands served at “Bud World” in stadium parking lot for 3 days leading up to tonight’s game.  AB also held “official” block party but Miller secured better venue for its party that has “roughly twice as many restaurants and taverns,” wrote Milwaukee Jnl.  “Miller’s just running scared… They’re dropping absurd amounts of money to keep what they have,” AB distrib told the Jnl.  Miller countered: “This is our town…Do you think they’d give us an inch in St. Louis?  I can tell you the answer is ‘no’.”    

YTD thru Apr, Gambrinus (4.3 share in 3d-biggest US mkt) up 10%, Heineken (4 share) +20%, Guinness (2.2 share) +43%. Meanwhile, AB +1%, Miller and Coors each eked out 0.4% gains.