BMI Archives Entry

BMI Archives Entry

Carbonated soft drink volume was down 1.6% in all-channel data last 4 wks thru Jan 17, per Nielsen figures reported by Wells Fargo Securities' Bonnie Herzog. That's improvement on -2.6% 12-wk avg for CSD volume. Avg prices were up 2.4% last 4 wks, down a percentage point from prior 12 wks. Regular CSDs were up slightly (+0.2%) while volume on diet brands fell 5.6% last 4 wks. Coca-Cola's CSD decline slowed to -1.1% last 4 wks (vs -3.2% for 12 wks) as its avg pricing came down to +3.3% avg vs +5.1% increase prior 12 wks. "While we continue to expect KO will lead industry pricing and leverage its price/pack architecture to drive top-line growth, we note that its pricing growth has decelerated slightly," said Bonnie. Meanwhile, PepsiCo, with small uptick in avg pricing to +2.8% last 4 wks, saw its CSD volume trend worsen to -4.6% last 4 wks vs 3.2% decline prior 12 wks. Dr Pepper Snapple CSD volume swung from slight decline prior 12 wks to 3% gain last 4 wks with avg price increase of just 0.3%. Private-label volume trends worsened to -4.6% last 4 wks even with slight (-0.1%) drop in prices.

Energy Drinks Rise Double-Digits; Monster Aggressive on Promos Energy drink volume growth accelerated to +11.8% last 4 wks (vs +10.6% avg for 12 wks) with avg price increase of just 0.3%. Monster Energy Corp volume shot up 19.5% last 4 wks (up from +11% prior 12 wks) but its avg price swung from 1% increase previous 12 wks to 1.8% decline in latest month. "MNST sold 37.2% of volume on promo this period, significantly above the 29.1% avg sold on promo in the prior 12 weeks," noted Bonnie. While she remains "encouraged" by Monster's volume gains, her enthusiasm is tempered by "price declines/promos required to achieve" the strong gains. Red Bull volume gains slowed to +6.6% as avg price rose by avg +2.1% last 4 wks. Rockstar avg prices shot up from +1.9% previous 12 wks to +8.4% last 4 wks, leading to 13.3% volume drop. Coca-Cola energy drinks (NOS, Full Throttle) still on a tear, up 26.7% last 4 wks, just ahead of 12-wk gain pace. Avg price on KO brands up 1%. PepsiCo energy drinks (AMP) were up solid 8.1% despite 4% price increase last 4 wks.

Slow Start for Sports Drinks Sports drinks volume was up 0.5% in all-channel data for last 4 wks thru Jan 17. Category slowed from 2.6% gain pace previous 12 wks even as avg prices remained stable at +2.5%. PepsiCo (Gatorade) slowed to 1.4% volume gain (vs +4.6% for 12 wks) as avg prices edged up half a percentage point to +2.1% last 4 wks. Coca-Cola (Powerade) volume was off 0.8% last 4 wks even as avg price gains were lowered to +1.3% compared to +2.7% over broader 12-wk period.

Water Momentum Slowing Down Bottled water volume rose 4.4% last 4 wks in all-channel stores, down from +6.4% last 12 wks and +6.9% last 52 wks. Avg prices were down 1.4% for 4 wks, about half category price decline for 52 wks. Nestle volume was up 8.4% with 4.9% price drop last 4 wks. Coca-Cola bottled water (Dasani, Smartwater) increased 2.2% and actually increased prices by avg 1.9% over last 4 wks. PepsiCo water (Aquafina) was flat over last 4 wks after gaining 4.8% previous 12 wks even with avg price decline of 4.4%.  

PCC Natural Markets, nation's largest largest certified organic retail co-op, whose 10 stores generate $230 mil in sales, has brought aboard Starbucks vet Cate Hardy as ceo effective today. In 9 years at SBUX, former McKinsey consultant most recently served as vp operations. PCC cfo Randy Lee had been serving as interim ceo since last May . . . Powered On energy brand - sibling line to Nawgan, also created by clinical neuropsychologist Rob Paul - said its partnership with Vitamin Angels provided vitamin A supplements to 40K underserved children in past year. Nonprofit org helps at-risk women and children gain access to essential vitamins and minerals . . . San Diego-based Suja Juice has returned to Forbes list of America's Most Promising Companies, rising from #3 spot last year to #2. Leader is Instacart, grocery delivery co based in SF.  

Bev drinkers of a certain age are apt to remember name of Italian American actor Ernest Borgnine, familiar from roles ranging from film classic Marty to TV sitcom McHale's Navy. But his LA-based daughter Nancee is betting that late-career roles doing voice work in SpongeBob SquarePants and performing in final episode of ER may make him a draw for younger consumers too. So she's launched sparkling coffee under Borgnine's Coffee Soda brand that melds sugar, Italian roast coffee in 12-oz glass longneck bottles priced at $6.99 per 4-pack. Homespun-looking label sports steaming coffee mug within center of medallion, against blue background that Nancee told BBI was supposed to recall her dad's blue eyes. So far, it's getting to retail directly and via broadline distributors.  

NFL is not necessarily a natural habitat for organic, Fair Trade teas. But Steaz has managed to grab some inexpensive NFL magic with first brand ambassador, New England Patriots' Darrelle Revis, cornerback who's dubbed area of field that he patrols "Revis Island" because wide receivers so often get lost there. At Pats' AFC divisional championship game vs Baltimore on Jan 10, Steaz duly staked out spot as Official Beverage of Revis Island - handing out 7,000 cans of its Steaz Energy Drink at tent - the "island" - erected in Foxboro Stadium parking lot.

That added fillip of marketing cachet to brand that's mainly been focused on basic blocking and tackling, as it steadily grows well-received canned iced tea line from its sturdy base in natural channel. At Fancy Food Show, cofounder Steve Kessler and ceo Linda Barron said co scored its best year in its 12-year history in 2014, with core iced tea line growing by 60% without addition of any new items (+30% if first foray into couple of Costco regions is excluded). At key retailer, Whole Foods, brand was up double-digits without new items. Priority for 2015 is to expand channel strategy, including broadening Costco presence, even as co continues to jettison sublines deemed inessential to broader goals. Lately that's included sparkling tea line upon which co was founded a dozen years ago, as well as shot line. That leaves Steaz just with core brand, the 6-year-old iced tea line, and 4-sku canned all-natural energy drink that will receive greater emphasis this year. At Revis Island, energy drink was viewed as more congruent with priorities of tailgaters, so that was focus of sampling, but overall objective was simply to raise profile of Steaz brand as it rolls out to broader retail outlets in region. Among retailers who've been added lately are Hannaford Bros and Fresh & Easy. By now co is self-sustaining, Steve said, with no need for outside capital.

FDA warning letter that's been issued this month to NY Spring Water, marketer of cap-activated VBlast line, offers example of balancing act that agency sometimes has been undertaking in pursuing violations of dietary supplement regs for brands that it really doesn't view as supplements in first place. It's latest action highlighting welter of confusing regs that marketers must traverse these days.

Letter dated Jan 7 advises NY Spring founder/prexy Richard Zakka that inspection of mfg plant north of NYC found 8 different categories of violations of dietary supplement regs, many of them instances where it didn't pursue good mfg practices such as establishing adequate product specs or following written quality control procedures. Letter also cites such instances of alleged supplement misbranding as failing to disclose that colorings have been added to Tropical Punch flavor.

Yet early on in letter, FDA takes pains to establish that letter "should not be interpreted to mean that FDA agrees" with characterization of VBlast items as dietary supplements, given the numerous cues that suggest those products are consumed as conventional foods. Those cues range from enhanced-water style of packaging to 500-ml size and use of identifying phrases like "water" and "punch." These were focus of revised guidance that agency issued a year ago (BBI, Jan 13 2014).

So what gives? If VBlast is not a supplement, why is FDA attacking its supplement practices? Regulatory expert Justin Prochnow of Greenberg Traurig figures it was simply a tactical decision by agency not to pursue supplement issue for now. "The FDA actually stopped short of making a determination that the product was improperly labeled as a dietary supplement or taking issue with certain ingredients that may not be GRAS like it has done in other letters; presumably because it wanted to hold the company accountable for the dietary supplement manufacturing requirements," he wrote in email to clients. "However, the letter does provide another good example of how the FDA may look at those factors when evaluating products." No indication, in FDA letter or Prochnow's analysis, of whether or how soon FDA intends to go after NY Spring on those grounds. Letter can be found here: http://www.fda.gov/ICECI/EnforcementActions/WarningLetters/ucm429530.htm  

True, we're in winter doldrums, but as 2015 gets under way, some retailers seem to be treating 10-for-$10 deals as if they're so 2014. Even more aggressive offerings seem to be popping up lately. BBI reader sends in 11-for-$10 deal on Sparkling Ice brand spotted at Kroger store near Pittsburgh. And why force consumer to go to trouble to buy 10? BBI has spotted straight $1-a-bottle deal on Vitaminwater in massive display at Target store in Brooklyn, NY. Note that such deals aren't always inspired by marketers themselves; sometimes, it's just retailers acting on their own to drive traffic.  

Love Beets, 5-year-old marketer of ready-to-eat beets, has now added Organic Beet Juice to mix, in 14-oz slim glass bottle that joins co's newly restaged other beet-based juices, including Cherry & Berry (with black currants) and regular Beet Juice, offered in 20-oz PET bottles. All are available at $4.99-5.99 SRP. Beets have been enjoying revival among some athletes for their recovery properties. Brand info at LoveBeets.com . . . Mountain Dew formally launched coconut-water-inflected Kickstart entries that were previewed at NACS c-store show (BBI, Oct 9). As anticipated, energizing entries debut in Pineapple Orange Mango and Strawberry Kiwi flavors, melding Dew formula with fruit juice and coconut water. They clock in at 60 calories per 12-oz can. PepsiCo is kicking off launch with "Come Alive" TV ad featuring "Out the Speakers Feat Rich Kidz" by A-Trak and Milo & Otis and So You Think You Can Dance alum D-Trix, during Super Bowl pregame show . . . Yogurt maker Dannon intro'd Light & Fit Protein Shakes with 12 g of protein and 5 g of fiber per 10-oz PET bottle. Line launches in 4-packs in Strawberry, Mixed Berry, Vanilla and Banana flavors.  

Some in bev biz are taking it as latest sign of subsidence of once-torrid enhanced water segment: new pack for SoBe Life Water that swaps proprietary 20-oz swirl-bottle shape and sleek-looking shrink label for commodity bottle of same size with cheaper wraparound label. New packs, which have been bleeding into market since late Oct, lately have begun to show up alongside existing packs in major metros, catching eyes of rival bev execs who're predicting last hurrah for PepsiCo brand that once was deemed worthy of elaborately produced Super Bowl ad with dancing lizards. "Must mean it's time to milk what's left," said one, citing syndicated data indicating brand has dropped 31.9% to $132 mil at retail. Category, of course, has long been dominated by Coke's Vitaminwater, down 9.5% to $510 mil in measured channels, and likely to accelerate decline in core NY market when it soon exits indie wholesaler Big Geyser. VW pricing is often seen well below premium SRP, possibly prompting move by PEP to get its costs down to reflect category's new pricing reality.

Pepsi rep was emphatic that brand isn't going away, tho. "We did make the packaging change to a less expensive pack, but there are no plans to discontinue the brand or the product line," she said. In fact, brand has been expanding presence in fountain accounts over past year. While new pack offers less pizzazz than older one, it does sport embossment of brand's trademark lizards on shoulder and is lighter in weight. New labels confer advantages of not requiring heat to shrink and better highlighting the liquid inside bottle, as consumers indicate in research that they prefer. The packaging change signals no alteration of recipes of brand's teas and elixirs.  

We'd teased new sports drink called HeadOn back in Dec, when only sparse info was available about Denver-based brand (BBI, Dec 5). With line now seeded in Colo via DSD house New Age, principals of marketer Impact Beverage are ready to talk about rollout plan for micronutrient-based line, named for recovery properties that make it relevant to ongoing sports-concussion debate. HeadOn is backed by Patrick Soon-Shiong, South African-born physician and philanthropist dubbed by Forbes as "richest doctor who ever lived," with net worth of $11 bil. (His best-known venture, tumor genome-sequencing machines aimed at finding cancer treatment, was featured on 60 Minutes last month.) That suggests brand could have staying power - much like another new-wave Gatorade challenger, Body Armor, funded by Glaceau tycoon Mike Repole. It's hard to think of sports drink wannabes since DPS' short-lived Accelerade a decade ago that came to fray with deep-pocketed support.

HeadOn is formulated as dietary supplement with proprietary blend of N-acetyl cystine, co-Q10 and L-carnitine as well as electrolytes and vitamins A, D, E, C and B. It's claimed to diminish effects from active exertion, decrease oxidative stress, sustain hydration, improve repair after strenuous activity (including concussions and other impact injuries - hence names HeadOn and Impact Bev) and reduce post-exercise inflammation. It's offered in full-wrap PET bottles in Fruit Punch, Orange Mango, Lemon Lime and Blueberry Pomegranate, sweetened with cane sugar at 180 calories per 16-oz bottle. Front label sports shield and slogan "Long live the athlete." In the hopper are lower-cal versions and youth version, for whenever brand development warrants.

Mgmt team is deep in bev experience: ceo Terry Sperstad served at Coca-Cola, Quaker Oats, Perrier, Red Bull North America and startups like First Blush and Dry Soda, while cmo Jaime Vasquez boasts years at Pepsi as well as Frito-Lay and Univision. Chief medical officer is micronutrient therapy specialist Dr Gerald Haase. Formula resulted from multiple studies running to millions of $$ performed with Defense Dept, including Marine Corps, and NASA.

Brand kicked off in Dec via New Age and set up range of 275 indie accts in first 3-4 weeks, including gyms, hospitals, indie retailers, which quickly moved 1K cases with no chain authorizations, Terry told BBI. With New Age managing eastern slopes of Colo, co has recruited Intermountain for western slopes and is seeking DSD representation in Ariz, then southern Calif, with plan of gradually moving northward along coast to Pac NW. Sperstad is pursuing mix of direct and DSD sales, backed by marketing initiatives like sampling push due later this month and formation of HeadOn draft program with agents representing promising sports rookies. Given brand's genesis, military bases are expected to be big part of mix, too. Brand generally asks $2.39-2.59 in c-stores, promoted at 2 for $4. Brand info at DrinkHeadOn.com.  

Tho neither party has offered progress report lately, Coca-Cola and Monster Beverage should be entering home stretch of efforts to pull off investment and brand swap by end of Mar. MNST brass has said it expects transaction to close by end of Mar, with brand moving from Bud network to Coke system in roughly half of country where brand is not already with KO. With Bud wholesalers believed to be contractually entitled to 60 days' notice, that suggests termination letters should be going out imminently. So far, none that we've heard about. Deal, recall, calls for KO to take minority stake in MNST while ceding to Corona, Calif-based co its energy brands while MNST sends to KO its non-energy brands. At one point MNST execs were hoping to have transition underway by mid-Mar but that seems unlikely now, given 60-day termination requirement in most or all Bud shops. Prospective partners have about another week to meet end-of-Mar target and still get letters out in time.