Some strikingly weak short-term craft numbers in Nielsen reported by Goldman Sachs Judy Hong yesterday. She also gave comparison numbers from other recent periods that show how much fortunes of several leading craft brewers have changed in last yr or so. Boston Beer's beer brands volume down 17.4% for 4 weeks thru Sep 10 in cut of Nielsen she gets (XAOC + c-store). And that's even with an avg price reduction of 1.6%. Compare to 0.6% gain as recently as 4 weeks thru July 6. Or 9% gain thru 9/12 a yr ago. Much of that recent weakness is because of steep declines of Hard Root Beer. Core Sam Adams brands down 9%, according to Judy. But that wasn't even worst trend she reported. Magic Hat brands down a whopping 32% last 4 weeks. That compared to 17% drop for 4 weeks thru July 16. And 8% drop for 4 weeks thru 9/12/2015. What about Sierra? It's down 4.9% for 4 weeks, compared to up 1.2% for 4 weeks thru July 16. And a 17.6% gain for 4 weeks thru 9/12 last yr. No other craft brewer's specific trends shown in Judy's report. But what a difference a yr makes! 

Even as Sierra Nevada expects to finish yr down 4.4% to 1.154 mil bbls, co laid out optimistic plans to double biz in a decade during its annual distrib mtg yesterday (see last issue). Two mil bbls will be an "important base" in the mkt "down the road," to hold "level of scale" advantage, sales & mktg director Joe Whitney thought. Sierra doubled over the last 8-9 years. And "it'll be harder this time around," he acknowledged. But "the sky is not falling," urged Brian Grossman early on. You "can't just take a snapshot" based on this yr's trend since 2 yr growth still up 5%. "We're going to adapt and adjust and move on" and "bottom line, we are built to last."

Common theme thruout meeting was idea that Sierra Nevada's built for the future, as co showcased its next generation, Brian and Sierra Grossman to start off the meeting and wrapped with founder and father Ken. Both Sierra and Brian talked about growing up with brewery as their "playground" as well as how they've grown professionally thru the company over the yrs. Brian touted co's ability for "instant flexibility" with decision making and "infrastructure" to make long term investments in its facilities, brands, people etc. And after reviewing laundry list of Sierra's achievements and capabilities as a multifaceted industry leader, both within craft biz and among all brewers, Ken too assured distribs that "we are here for the long run."

New Brands a Big Piece of 2017 Rebound Yr Sierra expects new brands Sidecar Orange Pale Ale and Tropical Torpedo to be a big piece of its 2017 rebound. In fact, Joe and co went as far as to say the pair "could surpass" Sam Adams Rebel IPA record launch ($21 mil in 2014 IRI supers). Sidecar in particular is the bigger bet, launching in 6pk and 12pk bottles, 16oz cans and draught. This is the first time Sierra's ever released another pale ale "on a mass basis" since Sierra Pale already makes up for 40% of entire Pale Ale style in scans, Joe pointed out. Sidecar name was trademarked and stashed "for a long time," but Sierra finally putting it to use both as a reference to the popular cocktail with orange liqueur and as "a sidekick to Pale Ale."

Tropical Torpedo will launch in 6pks and draught only for the first year, positioned as a "fun," slightly lower ABV "buddy" to Torpedo regular, said Joe. It's heavily based off of this yr's successful Tropical IPA spring seasonal with a few tweaks. So once again Sierra replacing spring seasonal with a recipe picked out from Beer Camp. This Spring it'll be Golden IPA, a wheat IPA that was "really a brewery favorite" and "did really well in the variety pack." Joe particularly pointed to success of Lagunitas Lil Sumpin' Sumpin' and Three Floyd's Gumballhead as examples for Wheat IPA style's potential.

Those new 3 brands are "the big volume opportunities for next year." But Sierra also altering its specialty brews a bit, shifting all High Altitude series into 6pks next year since 4pks "are not where the market is." It'll introduce slightly lower ABV, tho still 9%, version of Hoptimum, jokingly referred to as "Hoptimum light." And it's introducing new version of Ovila, "a really high end Belgian white."

All in, Sierra expects to grow 6.7% in 2017 (another 77K bbls if co ends up down 4% in 2016), so big question will be how sturdy rest of its portfolio can stand amid new entrants. If Sidecar and Tropical Torpedo launches reach historic intro growth levels, Sierra would be lookin' at a fair amount of declines across most of the rest of its portfolio to get net 6.7% growth. Including potentially from big brother brands Pale Ale and Torpedo regular. Recall, both Pale Ale and Torpedo $$ down 3% and volume down 6% YTD thru Sep 4 in scans. And Sierra originally forecast sales would be up 8-10% this yr. Yet while Sierra highlighted innovation side of the biz, "the secret really is our Pale Ale" and "keeping it healthy is at the forefront of everything we do," said Joe. As of last yr Pale Ale was over 600K-bbl brand on its own, followed by Torpedo (~250K bbls) and Seasonal (~200K bbls) makin' up majority of co's total volume. Other notable Sierra brands such as Otra Vez, Hophunter and Nooner received scant mention.

More on "Greatest Story Never Told" Campaign; "Need to Do a Lot More" to "Connect" to Next Gen Drinkers Sierra is closer yet to launching first ever mktg campaign for "greatest story never told," tho still taking its time "to figure it out first." Co showed distribs four different spots that're in the works. One general spot for Sierra Nevada features Dr Charles Bamforth with the tagline "chasing perfection." Another highlights Pale Ale featuring Ken Grossman talkin' about use of whole leaf hops and uniqueness of each hop harvest. A shorter "occasions-based" spot highlights Sierra Pale cans amid scenic mountain views. And lastly, Otra Vez spot is more upbeat with Spanish music in the background, since Otra Vez "is really about refreshment" and "a little more high energy."

Sierra "really need[s] to figure out how to connect with the next generation drinker," said Ken Grossman in closing remarks. "You've seen what we've done as far as customer experience" and "we're doing what we can with things like Beer Camp" as well as Torpedo tasting room, brewing facilities, etc. But co "realizing we need to do a lot more," said Ken. "Our story has not been told" and "our goal is now to get the message out."

Next Beer Camp Across America Going Global, Tho Scaling Back to Original Size Then too, Sierra "made too much" of Beer Camp Across America beer this year after expanding program to 30 brewing partners and into more natl accounts, Joe admitted. So next year it'll "take it back to what it was originally": "12 rockstar breweries" in a collab 12 pack with 12 different beers. "Keep it small, keep it special and make a lot less." But not all partners will be from US this time. Sierra's lookin' for a mix of six international brewers and six US brewers. It's "gonna ramp up to 7 or 8 festivals" domestically and "potentially one overseas." This year Beer Camp Across America sold out festivals in 3 cities "away from home" with 750+ brewers.

Several Operations Initiatives Laid Out by Recently Appointed COO Jeff White A number of new operations initiatives comin' in 2017. Sierra "Distributor Orders and Inventory Team" moving to "way more proactive" sales order processing system with "a dedicated person to each region" that'll better understand "the realities of that particular market place," explained recently appointed COO Jeff White. They'll spend more time in the mkts visiting wholesalers and learning particular needs. Then too, team will begin "what I hope to be a long series of wholesaler operations councils" to openly discuss "how do we optimize this." Starting next year, ordering POS will be "as user friendly as beer ordering" thru Hopline. And "Sales & Operations Planning" team will meet on weekly basis to help make "informed and rapid decision making," "improved forecasting capabilities" and "micro management of seasonal and variety pack production and transitions."  

A bunch of bigger craft brewers pulled back on production and expectations for pumpkin beers this year, they told Forbes contributor Tara Nurin. Among 'em: Boston Beer's Sam Adams (doing one pumpkin offering instead of two), Harpoon, Southern Tier and Weyerbacher, according to Forbes. Shipyard has been touting its choice to release its Pumpkinhead later this yr, ostensibly battling "seasonal creep" (earlier and earlier release of seasonal products to get a jump on sales), while also planning to keep it on shelves thru end-of-yr holidays. Pumpkinhead represented something like 40% of Shipyard's $$ last yr, when "sales dropped approximately 10,000 barrels." On the other hand, Harpoon carved up timing of pumpkin beer release, "shortening its pumpkin sales cycle," while Weyerbacher halved production of its pumpkin offering, even if it represented 15% of sales last yr, per report. You won't see any Ithaca beer with pumpkin this yr, or Shock Top for that matter, a nameless East Coast AB distrib told Forbes, estimating that the co ordered 20% less pumpkin beer for the 2016 season.

Seasonals Down Near 3 Share of Craft Cases for 52 Wks, Steeper Loss More Recently Pumpkin may not be going away entirely, "but [seasonals] are definitely weaker overall," co-owner of PA's Evil Genius Brewing, Luke Bowen, said. Ain't that the truth. For 52 wks thru Sept 4, craft seasonals volume was down 8.5%, almost 1.7 mil case equivalents in broadest IRI MULC off-premise channel. Most of that, about 1.5 mil CEs, came out of 3 largest seasonal brands, Leinenkugel's Seasonal Shandy (-7.8%), Sam Adams Seasonal (-17.5%) and Blue Moon Seasonal (-30.4%). The style lost 2.9 share of the segment to 17.3 in that time. Those 3 brands shed just over 2 share for 52 wks, to 7.6.

For 4 wks to Sep 4, seasonals lost over 3.8 share of craft cases to less than 17, volume -17.8%. That includes multi-point bump from Leinie shandy, which shifted biggest season for craft seasonal in IRI universe from fall to summer basically by itself. During summer months, volume share held by seasonal "style" up to 7 points higher for 2015, using more recent stats, after IRI's restatement (which included brands like Blue Moon, Leinenkugel, Shock Top). Looking at stats from before the restatement, seasonals peaked at 18.4 share for 4 wks thru Oct 4, 2015. And that was down almost 4 points from the year prior. Of course, "specialty" and "fruit/veggie/spiced" almost certainly picked up some of this volume share from seasonals. Many pumpkin beers fall into these catch-all "styles" in IRI data. But either way you look at it, 1 in 5 craft beers bought in off-premise channels used to be a rotating seasonal product, at least during peak seasons. The way 2016's headed, it's not lookin' like anywhere close. 

Expansion plans for US craft brewers continue: this time Two Brothers Brewing closed on land where it can expand operations in suburban Chicago. It picked up a 20-acre plot of land near its current 40K sq-ft facility in Warrenville where it plans to set up "a multiuse campus," Crain's Chicago Business reports. It'll break ground in 2018 on first building: a 75K sq-ft brewery that may not open til 2019 or beyond. Later, a restaurant and coffee roastery (it already operates one on site), plus a "distillery, barrel-aging facility and an events space." Even before that, Two Brothers nears completion of a 12K sq-ft spot in downtown Naperville called Craftsman, where it'll retail coffee, baked goods, meats and other high-end foods, house a farm-to-table restaurant and a bar, natch. The brewery still plans to grow volume from about 42K bbls to 50K bbls in 2016. But sales in home Chicago mkt so far down double-digits, -11.6% thru Sep 4, Crain's writes, citing IRI data. 

That was some of news coming out of New Belgium's distrib meeting in Fort Collins last week. New Belgium getting set to debut its Dayblazer Easygoing Ale in eye-catchin' purple 15 packs with a yellow sun-like blaze (according to shared pic). Word is it will be positioned at lower price to compete with, you guessed it, Founders All Day IPA. That should not surprise.

Founders All Day IPA is fastest growing craft brand in terms of incremental cases among top 25 craft brands. It's up 364,000 cases, 94% and $$ sales up 87% yr-to-date in IRI multi-outlet + convenience data thru Sep 4. All Day IPA is the #16 craft brand overall in $$ sales. But it is the 2d lowest priced at $29.25 per case equiv. That's down $1.02, 3.4% yr-to-date. (Only Blue Moon Variety Pack has lower avg price.) And there's the rub. Lots of leading craft brewers are "looking at Founders All Day IPA," said one large distrib source, and "they all want to pariticpate" in that arena with lower priced cans of easy-drinking craft beer, he pointed out. "Next version of this," he added will be AB and MillerCoors coming with "their versions. And away we go."  

A bit of drama developing in Ohio over Great Lakes Brewing Co's attempted termination of Southern Glazer's and SG's attempt to get temporary restraining order (TRO) and preliminary injunction to stop termination (see Sep 12 CBN). You got two clocks runnin'. Great Lakes sent termination effective Sep 25 and it wants to move brands. At same time, OH law has 90-day window for successor-manufacturer and distribs to determine relationship going forward, after which a "franchise relationship is established between the parties." That window about to close, since Southern Glazer's formed on June 30. Great Lakes argues it started discussing potential impact of huge Southern-Glazer's deal back in Jan. But Glazer's stalled, it sez, and didn't seek injunction until Sep 8. In fact, Great Lakes believes SG delayed to avoid publicity and have other brewers with similar contracts terminate it "before a new franchise is created by operation of law." Great Lakes set out these arguments, and others, in court filing that urges fed court to not give Glazer's a TRO or preliminary injunction since, Great Lakes insists: 1) termination of SG legit under both its contract and OH law; 2) any compensation due SG for termination would be covered by money damages; 3) Great Lakes could be stuck with SG after Sep 25; 4) public interest not served by injunction. So SG "created the emergency." Yet "it is not an emergency for" SG, "but instead for Great Lakes" since that 90-day window closes Sunday. Judge ordered final set of briefs to be filed pronto, asked each side to "continue to work together to resolve this issue and maintain the status quo," including Great Lakes shipping to SG and SG meeting retail obligation. Presumably judge will decide on TRO promptly.

Great Lakes Sez It Had Performance Issues with Glazer's; Fears Lack of Focus from Miami Great Lakes made other points in objection to SG's bid for TRO. Mega-merger of Southern and Glazer's was "complete change in control and ownership" of SG predecessor, which made termination "entirely proper." While Glazer's big MC and other-brand biz (in 5 states outside of OH) split off into biz separate from mega-wine/spirits distrib, "Glazer's entities that did not distribute MillerCoors beer became wholly owned by Southern Glazer's," whose decisions are being made in Miami, FL, not OH, Great Lakes claims. Indeed, "Ohio retailers seeking to order Great Lakes brands online are diverted to the Southern Wine and Spirits ordering portal," based in FL. Tho SG claimed it grew Great Lakes brands by 43% since 2011, Great Lakes sez it "experienced performance issues with Glazer's Ohio" even when Glazer's had significant beer interests. Now, Southern Glazer's "focus is squarely on wine and spirits" and Great Lakes "has good reason to expect that the poor performance it experienced with Glazer's Ohio will only worsen" under new entity. "Becoming stuck with an unsatisfactory distributor will have a direct effect on Great Lake's sales and goodwill and freeze Great Lakes' ability to contract with new distributors for the Columbus market." And while SG claimed its Great Lakes biz was "essential component" of its Columbus branch, Great Lakes points out its biz just 4% of that branch and "if all of Plaintiff's integrated Ohio business was looked at as a whole…likely this would comprise an even smaller percentage." In any case, it represents a "miniscule portion" of Southern Glazer's natl biz of over 150 mil cases of wine/spirits in 44 states. That ain't irreparable damage needed to get TRO, Great Lakes sez.  

Massive wine/spirits distrib just picked up a bunch more craft beer biz in key Colo market as Breakthru Bev's Colo outfit announced acquisition of C.R. Goodman craft and import portfolio. Recall, Breakthru is $6+ bil wine and spirits mega-distrib formed last yr after merger of Charmer Sunbelt and Wirtz. C.R. Goodman started up in Colo in 2006, acquiring small craft distrib distribution biz started by Left Hand Brewing. (Note: this is an expanded version of an article that appeared yesterday in INSIGHTS Express.)

Breakthru already sells some 2 mil cases of craft/import beer in Colo; C.R. Goodman sold about 1 mil cases, reported Denver Post. If Breakthru keeps all of C.R. Goodman's brands in entire state, it would be about a 6 share of volume in Colo's 51 mil case mkt. Craft about 40 share in Colo (including tasting rooms, self-distribution), BA's Bart Watson recently estimated. Breakthru expects to consolidate 3 Aurora warheouses and 600 employees into 1 giant half-mil sq ft warehouse in Stapleton, opening in 2017, said Post, adding that "C.R. Goodman employs about 75 people."

C.R. Goodman currently sells brands like Left Hand, Upslope, Stone, Dogfish Head, Firestone Walker, Boulevard and more. Statewide, Breakthru also has thick book of craft in state, including Odell, Avery, Great Divide and others (in at least some territory). Some brands could move, Breakthru spokesperson acknowledged. "With beer, it's tricky," Breakthru's Carrie Bach told Denver Post. "All those brewers have the opportunity to say we don't like this," she noted. But there's "goodwill between the brewers and Breakthru," she added. "We don't take them for granted." It would be possible for some suppliers to choose Breakthru in Denver area where it's strongest and MC distribs in other parts of state, one source suggested.

"With the changing landscape in Colorado we felt the timing was right to make this change for our suppliers, customers and employees," C.R. Goodman owner Ken Goodman said in statement. "We chose our suitor carefully," he added. Choice to go with Breakthru, primarily in wine/spirits biz, certainly notable in such a core craft market, where landscape "changing." Indeed. Both AB and MC operate branches and are collectively near 60% of volume in state. Following acquisition of Breckenridge, AB transitioned Breck volume into its system, including from a Coors distrib that had Breck for a long time, an "especially tough" move for Breck prexy Todd Usry, he told Fort Collins Coloradoan recently. And recall, state now also getting ready for big new changes to alcohol retailing, as indie stores that sell beer, wine and spirits will be joined by chain supermarkets over next few years. Craft brewers in Colo have long spoken of benefits of largely working with small indie accounts. Now that work with much bigger chains on the horizon for all types of alc bevs, much much bigger Breakthru could provide additional assistance. 

"The shift of the Blue Moon and Leinenkugel's marketing teams to the MillerCoors organization will allow a deeper focus and commitment on these two strategic brand families," sez Tenth and Blake prexy Scott Whitley, "while enabling Tenth and Blake to focus on the development and integration of our new craft partners into the MillerCoors system." New strategy, he adds, "will enable our national crafts, prestige imports and craft partners to play an even larger role" in getting MC to growth. Blue Moon and Leinie brand mktg team, plus Tenth and Blake's innovation group, "transition" immediately to MC cmo David Kroll's group, Scott said in email yesterday. Sr director of innovation Bryan Ferschinger bumped up to veep, natl craft/innovation. Blue Moon/Leinie brand director Ryan Hemsing keeps role and reports to Bryan. (Note: some of this article appeared yesterday in INSIGHTS Express.)

Interestingly, sales team remains with Tenth and Blake, which also keeps "prestige" import portfolio (Peroni, Pilsner Urquell) and becomes "business development arm" of MC, "tasked with building and expanding our new craft acquisitions," Scott wrote: Saint Archer, Terrapin, Hop Valley and Revolver. Tenth and Blake will also "explore future Molson Coors" craft/import oppys. Molson Coors operates its own Canadian division of specialty brands called Six Pints. Other personnel moves: David Reny, sr sales director at Tenth is moving on. His team reports to Scott on "an interim basis." Mike Sikorski gets new title/role as sr director of finance, craft partnerships and imports, combining current role at Tenth and Blake in finance/strategy with "M&A Integration work streams" and operations oversight.

Blue Moon, Leinie Topped 3.2 Mil Bbls in 2015, Up 65% Since 2010; Slipped Over Summer This shift reflects significant expansion of Blue Moon and particularly Leinenkugel's brands over last 5 years. Between 2010 and 2015, total Blue Moon volume expanded from less than 1.5 mil bbls to over 2.2 mil bbls, up about 50%, we estimate. During same period, total Leinie volume doubled from about a half-million bbls to a full million. (Find these and many more stats tracking craft entries from big brewers in our Craft Brew Guide publication.) Those two brand families represent vast majority of Tenth & Blake volume, as well as vast majority of MillerCoors craft-competing brands. They were slightly less than 6% of total MC volume in 2015, but higher % of revs/profits.

Combo of Blue Moon franchise and Leinenkugel Shandy franchise had 1.5 share of all beer $$ in Nielsen all-outlet + convenience data yr-to-date thru Sep 10. Both portfolios slipped over the summer. Blue Moon Belgian franchise down 6.6% for 4 weeks, 5.5% YTD. Flagship Belgian White volume still up 0.4% YTD, but dipped 1.3% last 4 wks. Lead brand still represents over 80% of franchise volume. That suggests serious weakness of smaller Blue Moon brands (seasonals and variety packs, see IRI data below for more). Leinie Shandy franchise down over 2% YTD but -14.4% for 4 wks. Those two franchises lost about 116K cases between 'em during 4 wks thru Sep 10.  

Goose Island gen mgr Ken Stout intro'd his talk to Illinois distribs last week, saying he'd talk about "what life's like since being acquired by the Big Mothership." And like a lot of other talks and interviews by acquired-AB crafts recently, Ken said AB ownership "a big advantage," including "access to unlimited capacity," ability to "expand our footprint" thru AB distrib network to 50 states and "access to ingredients." Recent blog post by Modern Times' Jacob McKean got some play, challenging each of those points. But Ken convincingly pointed to AB's Elk Mountain hop farm in Idaho, which contains lotsa "proprietary hops" only for Goose Island. Elk Mountain is some 5,000 acres. When AB bought Goose, it was using only 1,000 acres, noted Ken. Now all 5,000 are utilized, 70% by Goose. Ken also touted Goose Island's big expansion of barrel aging facility, plus tour & tasting center, added under AB ownership. "Up until a year and a half ago, we never offered public tours." This yr, 60,000 will go thru Goose Island tour.

Critical path for Goose, according to Ken: "We had to protect our authenticity and independence...our quirky little culture." (Editor's note: Have you heard that from other acquired crafts?) Ken acknowledged with "a big parent company that's tricky" and while acquisition by AB "overwhelmingly positive," there have been "obviously bumps in the road." Mentioned comment by former AB prexy Dave Peacock to new owners: "Whatever you do, don't f--- this up." The other thing about Goose's identity is that it's "urban," added Ken. "Our mountains are the skyline. Our stream is the Chicago river." You're talkin' about "bricks and steel." And so Goose also has 1963 Tour Bus, a United Center branded pub (which AB doesn't own), which provides "great exposure" especially since it's just 4 blocks from the brewery.

So how's it goin'? Goose Island grew "4X over in last 5 years," with a "lot of blood, sweat and tears," said Ken. Goose IPA is now the #4 IPA, he added, citing IRI data. Recall, AB bought Goose at 110,000 bbls in 2011 and it was close to a half million barrels last year. Not bad. A couple of years back, AB said it had already delivered 10X the EBITDA that it had bought. And AB keeps investing more.

Goose Island Up 34% in IRI YTD; IPA Doubling, Half of Goose Biz; Flat Ex-IPA Goose Island still rollin' in scan data. Up 33.8% in IRI multi-outlet + convenience yr-to-date thru Sep 4. But like craft segment as a whole, Goose totally dependent on IPA for growth. Its IPA doubled (up 105%) in IRI. And IPA up to half the volume in total Goose portfolio. Rest of Goose portfolio is just flat, and that includes all incremental Four Star Pils, about 4% of volume. Former lead brand 312 is down double digits (-13.5%). Its top 6 brands about 95% of volume (including also 312 Pale Ale, Seasonals and Variety Pack). Meaning all Goose's renowned specialty beers, still key to Goose's image, but less than 5% of off-premise biz.

Collaborations With Camden Town, Spaten Interesting question from an MC distrib who asked Ken if Goose doing collaborations with other AB-acquired craft. Not so far, but just the evening before, Goose "collaborated with Camden Town," a UK craft acquired by ABI. They "brewed a replica of an original IPA" from 1860, with an expert UK beer writer on scene, signing books and making whole thing more of an event. Similarly, Goose plans "collaboration beer with Spaten next year," but it will be "limited supply" and "draft only" in US. Ken added that such a collab "not about volume" and "not about EBITDA."

Ken's Thoughts on "Fierce" Craft Competition, More M&A, Path Forward for Smaller Brewers Asked what are biggest headwinds today, not there 2 or 3 years ago, Ken didn't hesitate to answer: "Competition, man. It's fierce out there. So many breweries out there are making good beer" and "it's really hard to protect your home market." Gotta "make sure...every day" that "you're not your father's craft beer." There have been a lot of "acquisitions. I don't see it ending anytime soon." So far AB has "acquired 8 craft breweries" in US, noted Ken, plus Virtue Cider and "there may be more." While there's still room for more craft brewers, "I don't know how much bigger it can get." His advice to newbies and up-and comers: "Make really good beers, have a taproom right on site" with maybe some foodtrucks. "Forget about packaging, don't even have a kitchen…. That's the model" that's working in craft scene that's "already so cluttered and competitive." As far as route-to-market, especially following DOJ consent decree, "wholesalers have more latitude than ever to do what's right for their business," adding "I don't know who's blocking a route to market."  

Sierra Nevada expects to be down for 1st time in 2016, it told distribs in Asheville this morn. Decline of over 50,000 bbls, 4.4% will put Sierra back under 1.2 mil bbls. But that would still be 5.3% ahead of 2 yrs ago. Sierra expects to return to 6.7% growth in 2017 and plans to basically double to over 2 mil bbls in next decade or so. How's it gonna return to growth next yr? Big piece of plan involves 2 line extensions. Sierra will intro an Orange Pale Ale called Sidecar and a Tropical Torpedo, playing into current trends. Its big ask of distribs is that these line extensions get 50% of their parent brand's distribution by Jun 1. Much more detail on meeting in next issue of Craft Brew News.