BMI Archives Entry
AB's western woes driven by outsized drops in Calif and Ariz. In fact, AB off near half-mil bbls in those 2 states. Declines in Pac and Mtn regions totaled 660K bbls, over 2/3 of AB's overall loss, tho those states just 18% of AB volume. In Midwest, AB performed better or similar to overall trend, including big Ill, Mich and Oh mkts. In key Tex and Fla, AB's #1 and #3 states, AB also outperformed its US trend, tho down slightly, lost share in each. AB lost ground in NJ and PA again, where it has just 27 share. Improved lots in small New Eng mkt tho; down just 14K bbls, 0.4%. And AB scored tiny gain in Mass. MillerCoors' dropoff rates more consistent than AB's. Like AB, MC took biggest bbls hit in Pac states (-326K bbls vs AB's -404K) and stung in Calif too. AB and MC combined for a 650K-bbl dropoff in Calif, shed 2.2 share between 'em. MC also lost over 440K bbls in Midwest, including 3.6% decline in Ill, 2.2% in Wisc. MC outperformed its natl pace in Tex and Fla, tho moreso in Tex. But MC took big hit in PA, down near 5% and lost a share. And its mkt share in New Eng now under 17. That's 11 pts below All Others.
| 2015 Volume Trend - By Region 42 "Reporting" States | ||||||||||
| NE | MA | SE | ENC | WNC | WSC | Mtn | PAC | 42 Sts | Total | |
| AB | -0.4 | -2.4 | -1.9 | -1.5 | -1.9 | -1.6 | -3.7 | -3.6 | -2.1 | -1.9 |
| MC | -2.7 | -3.9 | -2.7 | -2.4 | -1.8 | -2.0 | -1.9 | -4.5 | -2.8 | -2.8 |
| Pabst | 7.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 5.2 | 3.5 |
| CBBD | 7.3 | 9.8 | 15.3 | 11.8 | 14.3 | 14.5 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 10.8 |
| HUSA | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 0.3 | -6.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Others | 1.8 | 0.9 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 7.5 |
| Total | 0.4 | -0.9 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.4 | -1.4 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 |
| 2015 Volume Trend - Top States | ||||||||||
| CA | TX | FL | OH | MI | GA | IL | AZ | NJ | MA | |
| AB | -4.5 | -1.4 | -0.5 | -2.1 | -2.4 | -3.1 | -1.2 | -4.9 | -1.9 | 0.1 |
| MC | -5.2 | -1.2 | -2.3 | -0.7 | -2.9 | -4.6 | -3.6 | -3.6 | -2.3 | -2.7 |
| Pabst | -0.9 | 9.1 | -0.8 | 11.8 | 17.4 | 1.1 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 10.6 | 9.9 |
| CBBD | 11.0 | 14.9 | 14.6 | 12.2 | 14.8 | 14.2 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 6.1 |
| HUSA | -6.8 | 9.9 | 1.1 | 5.8 | 1.0 | -0.5 | -1.4 | -1.4 | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| Others | 3.8 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 8.4 | -1.9 | 2.0 | -1.6 |
| Total | -0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -1.4 | 0.1 | -3.0 | 0.6 | -0.1 |
Once again, sunny skies across the land for Constellation Brands Beer Div. Up almost 400K bbls, 11% in Calif. Passed 4 mil bbls and grabbed over 17 share. In Fla, CBBD up 177K bbls, 14.6% and passed 10 share. And in Tex, up 213K bbls, 15%, tacking on full share to 8.2. So CBBD up nearly 800K bbls, 12.4% in those 3 states, 44% of its volume, 50% of its gain last yr. HUSA down near 7% in Calif (end of scanbacks there took toll), but scored small gains in most states and all other regions. In Tex, where near half of Dos Equis biz is done, HUSA up near 10%. As noted, Pabst rode root beer in every region and most big states. Included solid gains in each of its heartland Midwest mkts and big % pops in Tex, NJ and Mass. While All Others scored double-digit gains in 5 of 8 regions in 2014, not one in 2015. No double-digit scores in big states either, tho 5% pop in Tex and 8% gain in Ill . . . . Here's how reporting states and regions break out: NE=ME,MA,NH,RI,VT; MA=NJ,PA; SE=AL,FL,GA,MS,SC,TE,WV; ENC=IN,IL,MI,OH,WI; WNC=IA,KA,MN,MO,ND,NE,SD; WSC=AR,LA,OK,TX; Mtn=AZ,CO,ID,NM,NV,MT,UT,WY; PAC=CA,HI, OR,WA.
Amidst so much in flux, MC had good news. "We're ahead of our volume plan," said MC ceo Gavin Hattersley. "That's never happened before" in history of JV (since 2008). MillerCoors is "confident" that it is on path back towards growth (in 2019). "The progress I'm most excited about," Gavin added: Coors Light and Miller Lite are "both growing volume at the same time for the first time since we launched the JV." Both brands up for last 52 weeks in chains, noted sales prexy Kevin Doyle. Coors Light up almost 1% YTD overall, said sr director mktg Coors brands Elina Vives. She showed several iterations of its new "Climb On" campaign. Miller Lite trends went from -7 to growth in last 3 yrs, said sr mktg director Greg Butler, as MC "stood up" for "our brand."
MillerCoors claimed #1 spot in FMBs, with 24% of "fastest growing segment in beer," said cmo David Kroll. Henry's Hard Soda off to fast start; sold over 60,000 bbls in 1st 8 weeks, said sr director of innovation Bryan Ferschinger, got almost 9 share of FMBs and already surpassed Not Your Father's Root Beer in velocity. Almost 2/3 of Henry's volume in chains. Chains are about 43% of MC's total biz, but 55% of its innovation volume, said chief customer officer Dan Werth. Top 15 chains now 25% of biz. Coors Banquet up 9 yrs in a row with a 10-yr CAGR of 2.9%. Goal is to grow Banquet by 4 mil cases to 25 mil cases by 2020. Miller High Life will get 2.5x more media weight in 2016 and switched 40 oz bottles from plastic back to glass, based on distrib feedback. Trends already improving (down 2% YTD thru 3/19 in Nielsen all-outlet with avg prices down 1.3%). Recall, half of MC's 10+ mil bbl loss since 2008 in subpremiums and subpremiums still near 30 share of its biz. About 40% of those subpremium losses "went to premium and above premium," said veep Ashley Selman, but 60% went to low-priced spirits or ABI. MC had breakout sessions on economy brands, but not yet fully ready to unveil its plans, leading to some distrib unrest.
Last yr, Tenth and Blake "enjoyed growth on every brand we focused on," including Blue Moon Belgian White and Leinie Summer Shandy (+11%), said prexy Scott Whitley. Leinie's Grapefruit Shandy was last yr's "#1 craft launch in the off trade with only one SKU" and this yr it will become yr round. "A capacity expansion project is underway" at craft acquisition Saint Archer, said Scott. And Scott "going hard after other acquisitions" said Gavin. When Molson Coors acquires rest of MillerCoors, "we will continue to invest in the front-end" to "unlock the potential" of MC brands, said Molson Coors ceo Mark Hunter. Gavin's "sense of mission" to return co to growth is "electrifying the organization." MC making "great progress on premium light," said Mark, but there's still "lots of work to do on economy brands." There are "green shoots of belief throughout" MillerCoors, said Gavin, adding "our team was tired of losing." While "excited by our progress," concluded Gavin "we have a healthy constructive dissatisfaction to do more… and move faster."
With extra day in Feb and very easy comps, domestic brewers' taxpaid shipments up 496K bbls, 2% for 2 mos. Leap Day led to 666K-bbl, 5.4% surge in Feb, estimates Beer Inst economist Michael Uhrich. That wiped out soft Jan (-170K bbls) and then some. Actually, 2% gain kind of a no-brainer; taxpaids took a 6% hit Jan-Feb last yr. But we'll take it. Tack on Jan import gain of 130K bbls, 5.7% and known US shipments kicked off 2016 with 626K-bbl, 2.3% increase. At same time, state shipments (different measure) up 540K bbls, 1.8%, Jan-Feb, Michael estimates. Calif, NY and several big Midwest mkts off to slow start, but Fla solid, Pennsy strong and Tex up slightly. "The trends across states are reflecting the positive signs we're seeing at the national level," Michael told INSIGHTS, adding: "36 states are now showing positive 12 month trends - that's the most states in the black in over three years." Off-premise biz up 2.2% thru Mar 19, sez Nielsen.
Innos 9% of Revs; Big Cider Bets in US; Lagunitas "Most Strategic" Deal Globally, Heineken "enjoyed quite a ride" last 2 yrs with good growth, noted ceo Jean Francois van Boxmeer. "What particularly worked were the innovations," he added, over 9% of total revs last yr, "$2 billion give or take." Heineken is #1 player in cider worldwide and 25 yrs out this can be "a very big line of business.... We will continue to invest, particularly in the US. We started a bit late, but we want to be a player here. We mean it," said Jean Francois. Global Heineken made several acquisitions last yr, including Red Stripe, which will be in HUSA portfolio and half of Lagunitas, which will not. Of all Heineken's global m&a moves in 2015, Lagunitas was "the most strategic," said Jean Francois, adding that it was a mixture of "strategy" and "serendipity." What's more, "not participating" in craft "would be a missed opportunity." (Editor's note: this was big change in H's stance.)
Optimism About US Mkt; Heineken Would Rather Be "BMW" than "GM" Jean Francois "very optimistic" about US beer mkt generally and for HUSA. "With the dynamism and the demographics," he said, "over time there must be a bigger place for beer" as well as "a place and space for us that we have to create." Fifteen yrs ago, US was 1/3 of Heineken's "total profits.... I'm not sure we can go back there," he said but "to make a bigger business than it is today is absolutely within reach." ABI-SAB deal won't change "competitive landscape" much country-by-country, said Jean Francois, "what does change is the enormous power" of combo. Yet Heineken "not in the business of optimizing a hypothetical endgame," said Jean Francois. At 150+ yrs old, Heineken plays "a long game," looking beyond "gigantism.... We'd rather be the BMW of breweries" than GM, he added.
Heineken Growth Plans; Dos 4x in Last 10 Yrs; Strongbow 2x Next 2; Tecate 2x in 4 Yrs? HUSA seeks to build on improved Heineken trend with "biggest campaign investment we've ever made" for well-received new US ads and digital featuring actor Benicio del Toro and global brewmaster. HUSA also launching "Soccer is Here" campaign with stars Landon Donovan, Carli Lloyd and David Villa. Neil Patrick Harris returns in Heineken Light ads, with more media weight, after 18-point trend swing last yr. Dos Equis brand grew from 6 mil cases to 25 mil cases in last decade. HUSA still sees plenty of runway with 3-part "mission plan" in 2016. Debuted Dos Equis ad with Most Interesting Man going to Mars for his final mission as HUSA looks "to reboot the campaign." Dos will change "leading man" but "campaign will continue." This summer, HUSA will launch new spots that include challenge to have highest "interesting ranking," including sportscaster Erin Andrews and actor Luiz Guzman. This fall, Dos kicks off college football playoff sponsorship with new MIM. Tecate franchise will go natl this yr and will buy natl tv for 1st time, focusing on boxing and soccer. Tecate Light remains on fire. Tecate franchise seeks to double by 2020. Strongbow seeks to double in 2 yrs, cement its position as #2 cider following 69% growth in 2015, and literally "reinvesting all its revenues" in building brand.
Imports and FMBs are two fastest growing segments in IRI so far this yr. Import volume up 9%, driven by Constellation, while FMBs up 17.7%, driven by NYFRB and other new hard sodas. Hard soda up to near 1 share of $$. Hadda have some effect on other segments, especially cider, which is down 10%. But also likely on craft; craft volume "slowed" to up just high single digits in redefined IRI (including Blue Moon, Shock Top, Leinenkugel). Up 8.2% yr-to-date. As craft gets bigger and slows somewhat (law of large numbers), segment separates out into those still growing gangbusters and those that ain't. And most of biggest, established players ain't. In addition to Boston Beer, New Belgium -2%, Gambrinus and Craft Brew Alliance -1.5%. Sierra up just 2%. Among top craft players, only Lagunitas keeps chuggin' along; up 28%. Some others still flyin' high: Firestone Walker up 93% and Founders up 74%. Both among top 15 craft players in IRI.
"This resulted in a significant drain on resources," especially since ABCC agents not familiar with this kind of investigation. His guys "like going out at night, getting bad guys causing problems and doing bad things. This was like going back to algebra class." ABCC's objective with investigations (ongoing) and big fine: "get attention of the industry, create deterrence and maintain prevention over time." Are distribs offering inducements or retailers demanding them? "It depends on who you talk to," said Ted. (Upcoming hearing with Boston retailers may explore that issue.) But if no charges brought vs retailers, payments "would continue," Ted believes. "Retailers have to have some skin in the game" to stop the payments. He also thinks there has already been some deterrence; "our responsibility is to follow up." Aim is to make this investigation "part of a regular, consistent, upper-tier enforcement effort." But that will take more resources, more training and will have to be balanced against those public safety concerns. Asked how much investigation alone cost, Ted demurred, but ABCC has that cost and now lawsuit to fight. That will surely eat into $2.6 mil fine paid by CBG, which may be reduced.
CBG Cries Foul in Court; Seeks to Set Aside or Reduce Fine Craft Brewers Guild filed suit vs Mass ABCC. Seeks court order to: 1) enjoin ABCC from enforcing its order; 2) set aside ABCC decision or remand it for further consideration; 3) determine fine "unlawful" or have it "reduced, refunded or...recalculated." (The $2.6 mil fine included calculations based on CBG's NH biz in addition to Mass.) Reviving arguments it made when ABCC first brought charges, CBG still sez ABCC: 1) never enforced law before nor levied fine for alleged violations; 2) tagged no other distribs; 3) exceeded its authority; 4) violated due process; 5) erred in interpreting the law; 6) abused its discretion, and more.
Singling Out of Sheehan Biz "Not Going to Happen Again" After Mass ABCC ruling, Mike Short, prexy of Sheehan's Hunterdon Brewing craft distrib in NJ, sent letter to fellow NJ distribs noting "pay to play is a serious issue and we do not want to invite that scrutiny into our state." Hunterdon "never engaged" in pay to play, Mike claimed. But retailers demanding more and say Hunterdon's competitors are providing it. He noted that "from a purely business sense it is an arms race that is funneling our hard earned money into the hands of a few greedy retailers." In Mass, Sheehans "singled out," "paying the fines" and faced suspension. "That is not going to happen again," Mike vowed. Starting Apr 1, Hunterdon will report any illegal demand by retailer to its attys, along with any additional info. NJ distribs met day before BMI went to press; hadda be interesting.
TTB on CatMan: If It Ain't Exempt, It's Inducement; That Includes 3d-Party Data, Monitors
Whither Kroger? Road to Ruling/FAQs; Did CatMan Get Outta Hand? Kroger's planogram program on hold even as Kroger originally planned to have it up and running by end of Q1. While many linked Kroger plan to ruling/FAQs, others reminded at recent legal symposium hosted by NABCA (control state assn) that TTB had yrs-old CatMan investigation/advisory on hold. Then too, alc bev atty Richard Blau drew "parallels" between TTB's original exemption of schematics (which grew into CatMan) and inexorable march of exceptions to tied house and other regs granted to industry over the years. But while those exceptions can be viewed as "legislatively condoned mission creep," evolution of CatMan more like a "default of regulation." When there's not the level of regulation there should be, Richard suggested, "people begin to do things not intended by regulators," i.e. expand CatMan beyond simple schematics and perfectly acceptable biz practices to potential threats to retailer independence via "additional services" that TTB has now flagged.
Richard's "hypothesis" of how CatMan evolved into potentially illegal activity: "inadequate funding combined with expanded industry activity leads to less enforcement which allows greater variability in market activities and results in a compliance disconnect." In some cases, retailers got overly dependent on judgments of single industry member, not envisaged in original exemption of schematics, which assumed retailer would get input from multiple sources, Richard noted. That doesn't mean TTB (or states) should "throw the baby out with the bathwater," since technology and CatMan can help retailers "better serve consumers." But rather some corrections may be in order to assure retailer independence. Enter Kroger's plan, industry's concerns, Ohio's rejection and TTB's ruling.
While there are clearly legit practices in CatMan, Bill Earle, head of Natl Assn of Beverage Importers (NABI) gave another specific example of potential CatMan abuse that "probably happened" in wine biz. Category captain had enough info on importers' brands, mktg, pricing plans and enough lead time (6 mos) to create "copycat" brands. But bottom line: "these plans work," and retailers know it. Bill also congratulated TTB, and like many industry figures, hopes it "results in a more rigorous marketplace." Yet he also acknowledged "state people need to take a closer look" as well, since TTB "doesn't have resources" and unclear "how aggressive TTB can be." It's all about the follow-up.
Wrapping It Up; What's it All Mean? In recent mos, TTB stepped up on shelf plan/Cat-Man and accepted offers from AB and MC on consignment sale violations, Oh found Kroger proposal violates law and Mass ABCC hit CBG. In all this, atty Richard Blau sees significance. "In the near term, the ruling and its FAQs signal at the very least that TTB will scrutinize any effort by a retail chain to have a single upper-tier industry member handle all of the retailer's category management functions. Some would argue further that practices such as 'Category Captains' and the whole concept of category management are fair game for federal scrutiny. Longer term, the compliance lines drawn by the federal ruling and its FAQs may have their greatest impact at the state level. By clarifying what the federal government considers to be an inducement" outside schematic exemption, "TTB may have empowered state regulators (who need only prove inducement, not exclusion) with additional tools to pursue enforcement actions under state tied-house laws." Another veteran alc bev atty, Art DeCelle, suggests the FAQs likely to "trigger dozens of new questions" but also believes that "if TTB believes that category management is a pressing...policy issue" industry will need "basic definitions and fair notice of practices that lead to exclusion," perhaps thru formal rulemaking. He also reminded: "regulators will be hard pressed to show that category management poses a threat to the independence of modern retailers who use the same practices for thousands of other items and who have no problem asserting their prerogatives to suppliers and wholesalers."
Turns out comment from Beer Alliance of Tex prexy Rick Donley on 2013 TX bill that reformed craft beer biz being “anti-competitive” did not specifically pertain to selling of craft brewer’s distribution rights. (See Aug 26 Express.) Rick told INSIGHTS Express: “The quotation I did make was concerning the original version of SB 639 as it was filed. The quotation was a direct reference to the uniform ‘FOB’ pricing issue that was contained in its original version. The prohibition of distribution rights is the subject of the ligation that the Court ruled on. The prohibition of a craft brewer to sell his distribution rights was added to the bill at the time the ‘FOB’ pricing was removed.” In fact, BAT “did try to talk the proponents out of the prohibition of selling distribution rights and predicted the litigation and the outcome” we saw last week, Rick further explained. But BAT, like other stakeholders, had committed to entire package of final bills in 2013.

