On premise beer volume fell 6.5% for latest 4 weeks thru May 15 in GuestMetrics data. That’s 2d 4-week period in a row where dropoff steepened to almost 7% rather than 4-5% that it’s typically been in GuestMetrics.  Beer down 5.3% for last 52 weeks.  Craft gained 0.3 share, but to be up 0.3 share in a -7% environment ain’t exactly a great accomplishment.  Craft down in this database, and even if GM data doesn’t capture tasting rooms and some other craft-centric accounts, down is down. Hard to grow when you’re 35 share of a declining category.  Meanwhile, premium light share losses improved to -0.4.  But again, not a lot to cheer about.  It’s still losing share in a -7 environment.  Meaning premium lights down more than 7% in these accounts, and they don’t even exist in tasting rooms and many craft-centric accounts.  Ouch.

Traffic down 3.5% last 4 weeks, “continuing a string of weak periods,” noted GuestMetrics ceo Bill Pecoriello, altho a slight improvement from prior 2 periods when traffic down more than 4%.  Traffic in these GM-tracked accounts down 2% for 52 weeks.  So on-premise remains a very tuff biz for a host of reasons. But key problem remains: spirits up another 1 full share last 4 weeks, while beer lost 1 full share.  

Gotta see this ad to believe it.  Key upstate home d Consumer Beverages advertised $4.99 30-packs of Bud and Bud Light after rebates for Memorial Day period.  “Get $15 back when you buy a Budweiser family 30-pack,” said ad.  “Smart phone? Smart savings,” it promised.  Here’s how it works: $19.99 for 30 pack cans- $10.00 Ibotta Rebate- $5.00 mail-in rebate” for a final price of $4.99.  (Ibotta is phone app that provides consumers with rebates-see Express, vol 18 #43 for in-depth explanation.) That’s $1 per 6-pack.   Yikes.  

Cheladas not exactly a Mexican import segment per se, but still skews almost entirely Hispanic, and putting up significant growth numbers, several yrs in. Big news of recent yrs of course has been Modelo Especial Chelada (which sold 3 mil cases last yr all told). And it’s still flying in scan data.  Up 211,000 cases, 40% YTD.  It passed Bud Chelada to become #2 Chelada brand.  But while many assumed that Modelo success in segment could spell trouble for AB’s more established Bud and Bud Light Chelada brands, AB’s chelada biz holding up just fine.  Still up about 4% all in.  Bud Light Chelada and Chelada Picante each up 5% and Bud Chelada down 1%.  

AB’s efforts to become 3d significant player in Mexican imports (after Constellation and HUSA) not fully coming to fruition yet.  Its initial foray, Montejo, already down significantly.  Down 70,000 cases, 24% YTD thru May 15 in IRI MULC.  Down 40,000 cases, 45% last 4 weeks.  But AB’s new entry Estrella Jalisco more than making up for those losses so far.  Estrella at 82,000 cases YTD, and sold 50,000 cases in just last 4 weeks.  Put ‘em together and AB up 4% YTD with its 2 Mexican import brands.  But the two brands combined at just 0.7 share of Mexican imports YTD.    

Mexican imports jumped 2 share of import segment to 69.8 for 4 weeks thru May 15 in IRI multi-outlet + convenience that included crucial Cinco de Mayo holiday.  But in tougher period for industry, Mexican imports up just 6.5% for 4 weeks, compared to 10% growth yr-to-date.  Mexican imports at 2/3 of import segment yr-to-date (66.1).  

Newest Bud Light ad, debuting today, turns spotlight to same-sex marriage using same political theme it intro’d at Super Bowl. New 30-second “Weddings” spot features Bud Light Party spokespeople Amy Schumer and Seth Rogen at same-sex wedding reception reminding that “gay weddings: they’re just like any wedding.” Like others in the Party series, it depends on one-liners and visual gags to promote celebrations where all drinkers can “Raise One to Right Now.” Notably, it’s already been promoted by LGBT icon Ellen Degeneres and a number of other sympathetic celebs, like Jimmy Fallon, via social media today. Ellen alone has 60 mil Twitter followers, as Ad Age points out. So far, those followers cheers-ing the spot. It’ll air in NY and Calif during June, “the height of wedding season in America and also LGBT Pride Month,” per AB statement. And “Bud Light has been a supporter of LGBT groups and causes for nearly 20 years,” the co reminds. So as the brand goes public with that support, it may not be news to many within LGBT community, but it could be news to folks that largely don’t interact with this community and may have a different response.

Other CPG companies have started to feature same-sex couples in mainstream ads as Americans’ support of same-sex marriage has flipped over last 15 years. In 2001, 57% of American adults opposed legalization of same-sex marriage, compared to 55% that favor it, now, according to Pew Research. And as marketers at Bud Light very likely know, over 70% of Millennials favor it. These younger consumers also regularly report much more interest in brands that share their values of inclusiveness. Yet this shift toward inclusiveness, in popular culture as well as politically, is not without backlash. Certain groups have challenged large companies and brands that have featured same-sex couples in their ads. That backlash very much on the minds of some distribs, we hear, who see the ad as a risk and ain’t thrilled that Bud Light team taking it as the co works to reverse the brand’s steady declines for almost a decade.

While the Bud Light ad focuses on fun, the Bud Light Party campaign is not exactly apolitical. This work, showing up weeks after the re-brand of Budweiser as “America,” seems to set up Blue vs Red battle even within the same brand family. Importantly, both brands highlight unity: Bud Light thru humor, Bud thru patriotism. Yet it’s done in overtly political ways just as country’s own political polarization over the 2016 election is in a global spotlight. Inserting these 2 iconic brands into that conversation, even sparking conversation, is certain to boost attention and digital engagement. Yet the key question remains: will they help stabilize either brand’s share loss and sell more beer?

Off-premise scan trends startin’ to resemble on-premise drops reported by GuestMetrics.  Indeed, off-premise volume down 4.2% for 4 wks thru May 21 in Nielsen all outlet + convenience universe.  But yet again, holiday timing plays a role.  Same period last yr included Fri-Sat buy-in period for key Memorial Day weekend, but no buy in for this yr’s holiday weekend.  Still, with 4-wk dropoff, yr-to-date trend thru May 21 now just +0.1% in Nielsen scans.  Even $$ trend -1.8% for 4 wks, pulling yr-to-date gain below 3%. 

Look at these soft-soft segment trends for 4 wks: craft actually down 2.7% (Nielsen includes Blue Moon, Shock Top, Yuengling, etc) and mainstream segments really hammered, with premium light -7.1%, premium regular

-5.1% and economy -5%.  Imports slowed to +0.8% for 4 wks, superpremiums to +1.4% and even FMBs gained just 2.9%, 10 pts below yr-to-date trend.  AB and MC each off 5-6% and Constellation pace cut by more than half to +6%.  Other brewer and most major brand numbers pretty ugly too, tho Michelob Ultra and Modelo Especial hung onto double-digit gains, major hard sodas hangin’ in with 0.8 $$ share.  One would assume there’s gotta be pop in next week’s numbers which will include beginning of Memorial Day 2016.     

That’s lead of just breaking Bloomberg piece, noting that agreement “may include measures to keep the beer behemoth from edging craft brewers from shelves, according to people familiar with the matter,” wrote Bloomberg.  DoJ approval “on track for later this month,” added Bloomberg, citing 3 sources. “The accord could include limits on… ownership of distributors.” With other global govt entities recently recommending or approving deal (including EU, South Africa, Australia, Canada etc), not terribly surprising that US wrapping things up.  And since there’s absence of any antitrust effect on structure of US industry, approval should not come as great surprise.  Question has always been whether any of the many objections to the deal, based on ancillary issues (i.e craft access, ownership of distribution, etc), would be heard and incorporated into agreement by DoJ. We’ll soon find out.   

Biz and legal media continue to give voice to those who want US Dept of Justice to impose “behavioral conditions” on AB InBev to clear its purchase of SABMiller.  Even as Reuters reported last week that DoJ’s looking at AB InBev’s incentive program for distribs, antitrust atty Andre Barlow repeated his concerns and calls for conditions in a piece for Law360.  But he put them in context of previous actions by DoJ which “required comprehensive behavioral conditions” on Charter Communications’ acquisitions in cable biz to prevent it from “engaging in future anti-competitive conduct against its smaller rivals.”  DoJ should “take the same tough and sophisticated approach to protect consumers from the much larger” ABI-SAB deal, Barlow advises.  He continues to believe that New MillerCoors after the deal will make MC become “much more like ABI” and have the “incentive and ability to pursue stronger agreements and incentive programs that restrict craft and independent brewers’, as well as importers’, access to distributors and retailers.”  

The facts that: 1) MC hasn’t done this in the recent past and insists it will be business as usual going forward; 2) many MC distribs have built vast portfolios of competing brands and done well with them; 3) more restrictive AB incentive programs in the past did little (nothing?) to stymie craft’s growth to 22 mil bbls last yr, do not dissuade Barlow (and others) from advising DoJ to impose conditions.  For example: DoJ should “make sure that ABI’s contracts with distributors do not contain terms that create economic disadvantages for them carrying smaller brewers’ beers.” It should also “prohibit ABI and New MillerCoors from engaging in other conduct that would foreclose other independent brewers’ ability to distribute their products to retailers” or otherwise “make it unattractive” for distribs to carry competing brands.  Once again, DoJ is being asked to draw the fine line between carrot and stick. 

Barlow’s concerns, as well as NBWA’s and BA’s, appeared in The Deal Pipeline last week too. Author William McConnell also cited a separate source who opined that “a few problems with distribution could logically be fixed through some behavioral conditions.”   Same source suggested the lawsuit between Pabst and MC over their contract brewing agreement, “if nothing else…exemplifies the connections between big brewers and the rest of the industry’s reliance on them.” 

South Africa’s Competition Comm Clears ABI-SAB, with Numerous Conditions  Elsewhere, AB InBev announced today that “the Competition Commission of South Africa has completed its investigation and recommended to the Competition Tribunal that the proposed combination with SABMiller…be approved with conditions.”  Those conditions are “comprehensive” as the Commissioner pointed out.  As SA’s Times LIVE reports, they require ABI to: 1) sell off SAB’s 26% stake in Distell Group, a local wine, cider and spirits maker, within 3 yrs of closing; 2) ensure its Coke bottling employees stay separate from its Pepsi bottling employees and that “commercially sensitive” info isn’t shared; 3) continue to sell tin metal crowns to 3d parties in SA for 5 yrs; 4) “not retrench any employee in South Africa as a result of the merger,” a guarantee that “will endure in perpetuity,” and others.    

Soft May scans so far and a near-2% decline in domestic brewers’ taxpaid shipments in Apr estimated by Beer Inst put negative spin on recent trends, as we reported last week.  But state shipments totals, also from Beer Inst economist Michael Uhrich, show volume still up almost 1 mil bbls, 1.5% thru Apr.  Then too, Michael points out that selling-day adjusted figures for Apr (this yr Apr had one less selling day), show “beer volume grew by an average of 4.5% in April.  That’s the best single month adjusted trend since November 2008,” he sez.  Then too, April import number comin’ later this week.