Nestor looks at rapidly evolving craft landscape and arrives at a few clear-eyed predictions. "It's tough to make predictions especially about the future," Yogi Berra once said. "Our crystal ball broke a long time ago," our parent BMI's founder Jerry Steinman used to say. Yet guest columnist Nestor, who has been known to get involved in craft transactions from time to time, gives us an illuminating take on what might be next.

By Nestor

Why not do a 2016 prediction article on craft brew? My friend Pythia (formerly the Oracle of Delphi) had an excellent suggestion-"Keep it vague" (sounds better in Greek). So here goes.

Point One. Craft beer's volume increases declined to the still very respectable high single digits late last year, and are likely to stay there in 2016. (I am heretically including brewers who do not fit the BA's definition in this calculation; on the other hand, I am not counting uncountable tasting room volumes here.) Part of the reason, of course, is the law of big numbers. If craft were to continue to grow at its current percentage rate, it would be over 100% of the industry before too long; and that is not likely to happen. But there is another reason as well.

That other reason is not going to be a comeback on the part of mainstream lagers. Just don't see any reason why they should suddenly begin to grow again; today's young adults want variety. And with the economy at least marginally improving, there is no reason why financial considerations should suddenly drive them to less expensive choices. Nor do I see crafts being significantly hurt by burgeoning Mexican beer brands; crafts and Mexican beers just don't interact that much.

No, the underlying cause of a slowing in craft gains will be increased competition from non-beer malt beverages. While cider and some other segments of this sprawling category are not doing well, their declines are being more than made up by PABs. Hard lemonades have now been joined by hard root beers and hard ginger ales, with other variants soon to come. Hard whatevers won't last forever (like'Ritas, you eventually get to kumquat; Your Second Cousin's Prune Juice would be a telltale sign here). But with the major brewers jumping into the "category," 2016 is not going to be the year that this bubble bursts.

Point Two. We are going to see a lot more craft brewers deciding to sell. As in past years, some of these decisions will be driven by personal considerations (getting older and no heirs, etc). But more and more exits by craft brewers, including some large and respected ones, will be driven by two economic factors-a widening performance gap amongst crafts and big offers. Let's talk about each of these.

Performance differentials. Collectively, craft is doing just fine. But while once a rising tide was lifting all craft boats, we are now seeing significant variances in trends. Some crafts are continuing to prosper, but others are just treading water. Likely a number of reasons for these disparate performances. The IPA boom. Competition from brewers entering core markets. Clearly, some companies, including some famous names, are seeing worsening trends and are (or will be) seeking salvation through sales transactions.

Big offers. Not too long ago (last year), a number of industry savants (possibly including myself, but hard to tell since I have burned my old scrolls as sacrifices to the gods) concluded that buy-out prices for crafts would go down. And they surely will eventually, especially for mediocre performers (if they can obtain offers at all). But it is a very different story for the hot crafts. By any traditional measure, what Heineken paid for Lagunitas and what Constellation offered Ballast Point were staggering sums. And many peers with robust trends would very much like to be tempted with such largesse.

To conclude, 2015 ended with over 4000 brewers in the US, with over 1800 in some state of planning or development. Jim Koch has tossed out a projection of 10,000 brewers. And he could be right. Sure, the vast majority of the recent and future new brewers will be small and very small enterprises. And some will fail. But many will succeed by tapping into two major craft consumer desiderata-a desire to experiment with new crafts and an interest in local products.

Can the industry support 10,000 craft brewers? What does all this mean to you? If you are still up lots and brimming with confidence and the capital needed to go regional or national and to compete once you're there, probably not much. If you are new with energy and faith and a bit of money, probably not much.

Everybody else, think about whether you should be a seller. If so, act quickly. Today's buyers and multiples may not be around for much longer.

Stagnation in volume growth could net a financial positive for Boston Beer, or so goes basic thesis of some recent reports on SAM stock from handful of financial analysts. Price targets may vary, but everyone sees the same headwinds. "Sales will remain under pressure," wrote CLSA's Caroline Levy and team this week, expecting tougher growth for at least next couple years and still plenty of "downside risk." CLSA lowered its estimates for SAM performance, but think earnings could still grow double digits "as SAM can expand margins and increase buybacks." The folks there model a best-case scenario for 2016 in which existing beer sales are flat, while other models put Sam Adams brands down 2 to 2.5% by $$. Nitro intro could boost beer $$-trend anywhere from 5-9 pts, CLSA models suggest. But Boston's cider biz likely to struggle for at least another year. Another upside for SAM investors is M&A. "We no longer rule out the possibility of a sale," CLSA wrote, and a bigger company could expand margins even further as Boston's 450-strong "best-in-class sales force is not cheap." Similarly, Goldman Sachs ranked Boston as having a 15-30% probability of being acquired in last week's "Rise of Craft" report. Interestingly, short note about SAM in that report indicates that Angry Orchard distribution exceeded (or came close) to Sam Adams distribution in Nielsen data in 2015.

Separately, a Seeking Alpha analyst dug deeper into Boston's likelihood to improve financials while sales stagnate. It includes such intriguing suggestions as "if there is a price war in 2016, craft consumers may actually 'trade down' to [SAM's] brands compared to overpriced local brands." Hmm. Regardless of pricing, this onlooker doesn't think cost of goods sold and gen'l & admin expenses can continue to increase at high rates, considering lower diesel and commodity prices. Analysis also uses valuations of recent beer M&A to argue further upside to SAM stock. While Boston "does not deserve anywhere near" massive multiples seen in Ballast or even Lagunitas deals, it should get higher than "the low MillerCoors multiple of 2.6X declining sales." Even at that conservative rate, buyout prices would value the company at near 12% premium to SAM stock price at end of January, according to this analysis.  

Getting past the "sticker shock" of Constellation's $1-billion buy of Ballast Point, a pair of recent reports from financial community contend that "the brand can easily grow into its lofty acquired multiple." The deal is "clearly favorable to STZ," both financially "and strategically," folks at Morgan Stanley led by Dara Mohsenian argue in lengthy report focused entirely on making sense of the deal. Similarly, STZ now "most favorably positioned from a craft perspective," among big US brewers, Goldman Sachs wrote in recent "Rise of Craft" report (see Jan 27 issue). That report notes big distribution runway alongside IPA strength and extensive Morgan Stanley research digs into Ballast's "unprecedented pace of growth" among similarly-sized peers. But overall, higher prices and thicker margins remain key to analysts' expectations for Ballast, buttressed by its strength at home.

Before modelling Ballast's future growth, Dara and team repeatedly note how much of an outlier it is. Indeed Morgan Stanley still thinks most craft brands "will have a difficult time scaling amidst burgeoning competition and limited brand loyalty." But Ballast is "more unique." First, its average retail price per 6 pk is 56% higher than the average top 20 craft 6 pk and 121% the average domestic light brand. Further, it more than doubled $$ sales in Nielsen's all outlet plus convenience data for every single 4-wk period in 2014 and 2015. So combo of high price and fast growth "is a testament to Ballast Point's very strong brand proposition," per Morgan Stanley. Then too, Ballast's distribution grew 111% on average for the same 2 years in Nielsen-tracked channels. And it still ended 2015 only selling beer in outlets that represent less than 11% of total beer sales. (Ballast's weighted average ACV, all-commodity volume, distribution was 10.7% for 4 wks thru 12/26/15 in Nielsen xAOC + convenience data, Morgan Stanley reported, and was just 7.9% for full-yr 2015).

Zooming in on Ballast's regional trends and distribution looks quite different and starts to paint that picture of a long runway that Goldman Sachs highlighted. About 3/4 of Ballast volume sold in Nielsen's Pacific region (CA, OR, WA), Morgan Stanley wrote. And it still grew over 80% there in 4th qtr, when it reached about 38% ACV distribution (not far from national average of top 5 craft players, 44% ACV distribution). Ballast got 3.4 share in hometown San Diego, Morgan Stanley estimates, still about 25% of its total volume and growing upwards of 70%. Another quarter of its volume is sold in California, where these analysts see "significant runway of growth" considering Ballast is over 30 points of distribution behind "craft peer average" of 76% in rest of the state. And if it's distribution Ballast needs, that's "an area in which Constellation can clearly help," Morgan Stanley notes.

The group throws out a wide range of estimates for how big Ballast could get if its national share comes anywhere close to its share in San Diego. On the absolute low-end of that matrix, if Ballast maintains SD share while building share elsewhere to just over a tenth of what it has at home (0.4 share), it's lookin' at 850-900K bbls. Note too that Ballast still not even in 18 states that represent 20% of total US beer volume. Just 5 of those states (MI, MO, TN, IN, LA) represent 10% of total volume. Morgan Stanley forecasts Ballast to grow to 4.1 share in San Diego by 2020, 1.2 share in the rest of Calif and 0.5 in the rest of the US. That would put the co over 1.3 mil bbls by then, averaging about 35% growth overall each year. To help justify these expectations, the analysts show that Lagunitas has maintained high double-digit growth after flying through the 100-300K bbl range. And Ballast is moving through that range with even faster trends than Lagunitas and now has support of Constellation to take it to next level. Look out.  

We've constantly heard about overall on-premise biz gettin' tuffer over the last handful of yrs, with reduced traffic and lack of brand loyalty, along with rise of rotator bars, local brands and spirits gainin' traction. But this past yr was first in many that cautionary notes abound on craft segment as well, particularly among top craft cos in GuestMetrics data. Net-net, overall craft volume declined 2.3% in 2015. It was still able to eke out 0.7% $$-gain and snagged another 0.8 share of both $$ and volume as total beer took 4.7% hit. At 34.5 share of $$, that's almost as big as AB and MC combined (35.9). But nonetheless, share gain substantially slowed compared to last yr. Recall, at our last spring conference, GM CEO Bill Pecoriello pointed out that craft could be close to hitting on-premise "plateau" in GuestMetrics universe as share gains began to flatten each quarter. Sure enuf, craft $$ slightly lower (-0.2%) in the latter half of the yr and closed out last 4 wks down 1.5% as segment stayed put at 34.8 share for each of the last 24-wk, 12-wk and 4-wk periods. Yet craft still healthiest of all beer segments on premise (cider trend was slightly better off tiny base) amid tuff on-premise conditions. And keep in mind, since GuestMetrics doesn't capture full power of tasting rooms, brewpubs or craft-centric accounts, this understates dominance of craft on premise, especially local craft.

Just a couple bright spots among top craft players in this data. And surprise surprise, Lagunitas shone brightest. Lagunitas was second biggest gainer among top 20 players, behind only Constellation. Its volume up 18%, $$ up 20.5% and it gained 0.2 share to 1.1. Ballast Point not yet a top-25 vendor in GM data, but also managed to grow substantial 0.2 share. Bell's was only other top craft vendor that grew volume at all in 2015: volume +2%, $$ up 5%. Other than that: a lot of minus signs among top players. And some craft brewers seriously under water. Look at top 3: Boston Beer down 10.7% (including Angry Orchard), Sierra Nevada down 8% and New Belgium down 20%. Then, in descending order of size in GM data: SweetWater volume -11%, Duvel Moortgat USA -6%, Stone -7%, NAB -15%, Dogfish Head -6.5%, CBA -7.6%. Each of Brooklyn, Abita and Rogue down double-digits. Yet craft still gained share overall due to growth of smaller brewers. Indeed, this is very similar to what we've seen from overall biz in 2015. Top craft brewers slowed or declined, while growth came from brewers outside the top chart. Tho declines seem to be more pronounced in highly developed on-premise channel. This has symptoms of a classic squeeze. With so many local players emerging as forces all over US at same time as big brewers/importers buying craft and devoting more resources on premise, how will many of these established craft brewers win again in this channel?

Lots Slowed in Final Q; Bitter Cold December Trends for Some Many top craft cos saw trends slow further in last quarter of 2015 and further yet in last 4 wks. Boston, Gambrinus, New Belgium, Lagunitas, Sierra, SweetWater, DuvelUSA, Dogfish, Abita and Rogue all saw trends worsen (some substantially). Indeed, Boston Beer volume down 15% last 12 wks. Its top beer brands, Sam Adams Boston Lager and Sam Seasonal each slowed a couple points in same time, compared to already tuff 16% and 18% declines respectively for full yr. But Angry Orchard Crisp Apple trend took larger downward swing in final mos: down 11.5% for 12 wks and 14% for last 4 wks; just barely finished positive (+0.6%) for full yr. Dogfish Head dipped low-double-digits: -11.5% for 12 wks and -14.6% for 4 wks. Lagunitas slowed 10 pts plus tho still up 8% in last 12 wks, +6% in last 4 wks. GuestMetrics picture is only a snapshot of a piece of the on-premise universe, but this snapshot sure looks a lot less pretty.  

In total, Duvel Moortgat owns all or majority of breweries and brands that sold over a half mil bbls in US in 2015, and collectively grew at a double-digit clip. But lots of moving pieces, and the Belgian brewer looks at Firestone Walker (which it acquired most of last summer) as separate and distinct biz. "Each brewery must stand on its own," noted Duvel Moortgat USA prexy Simon Thorpe. "We're not intending to integrate the companies." Co-founders David Walker and Adam Firestone "retain an ownership stake." Even if they are treated separately, this aggregation of assets makes Duvel a top 10 player in craft and specialty import space.

Good "Fundamentals" and "Margin Evolution" At Each Brewery Duvel Moortgat USA shipments up 5% in 2015 to 309,000 hectolitres (263K bbls) while revs up 7%, Simon told CBN. Duvel Moortgat USA includes Boulevard, Ommegang and Duvel import arm. "The fundamentals of each brewery progressed well," Simon said. "Margin evolution is good" too. DMUSA revs grew ahead of volume and there is significant trading up within Boulevard's brand portfolio, Simon noted. DMUSA now has sales force of 70 people, which is enough to get it to scale, according to Simon. And while DMUSA is "making progress" on-premise, "the future of rock and roll is off-premise" where DMUSA up 10% in 2015.

Tank 7 Up Over 30%; Boulevard Entered Many New Mkts; Exports Too Boulevard revs up 13% in 2015, while its shipments up 6% to 196,000 bbls (depletions up 5%). So lots of trading up to Tank 7, which grew depletions 34% in 2015. Since Duvel acquired Boulevard in late 2013, it has emphasized high-end Tank 7 brand. Boulevard also successfully launched The Calling IPA, which sold 5-6,000 bbls. And Boulevard expanded to many major new mkts, including CA, NJ, NY, OH, FL, SC and PA. Those mkts represent well over 1/3 of US pop. Boulevard also introduced cans to tune of about 8,000 bbls. And Duvel also began to export Boulevard to some European mkts, totaling 5,000 bbls. With Tank 7, expansion, exports, The Calling and cans, that 6% growth rate means that other elements of Boulevard's biz hadda be under fair amount of pressure. Yet Simon expressed satisfaction with Boulevard's performance in core Midwest, including outside of home state Mo, with "reinvigorated interest" in markets like Nebraska and Iowa. Starting this yr, Boulevard will have 40% more fermentation and with its new brewhouse, capacity of 500,000 bbls.

Ommegang remains that "beautiful small little jewel" of a brewery, sez Simon. But its revs up just 3% and depletions up 5% in 2015. Growth driven by its Nirvana IPA 6-packs in the Northeast. Duvel USA declined 5%, as high end import segment remained "tough going." All told, Duvel Moortgat USA expects another 5-6% of growth again in 2016.

Firestone Walker Growth "Holding"; Expected to Continue in 2016 Meanwhile, Firestone Walker one of top 5 fastest-growing craft brewers last yr (see CBN vol 7, no 6). Up 57,000 bbls, 27%. "Growth still holding and expected" to continue thru 2016, said Firestone co-founder David Walker. "Partnership" with Duvel Moortgat is "strong," added David, with "rich technical collaboration" and "best practice sharing." Firestone's new brewhouse will take it to 600,000 bbls of capacity. And Firestone's Venice Beach location "coming online at long last." In separate conversations a little while back, each of Simon and David noted that Firestone Walker will brew Boulevard cans in Paso Robles. Simon called this a "true spirit of collaboration."

Firestone Walker Will Brew and Package Boulevard Beers Boulevard formally announced it would brew and package cans of Frequent Flier Session IPA (renamed with "slight" reformulation evolving from previous Pop Up IPA), Heavy Lifting IPA and Unfiltered Wheat in Firestone Walker's Paso Robles facility. Meanwhile, its Ginger Radler will "continue to be brewed and canned" by Third Street Brewhouse in Cold Spring. Draft versions of all these beers will "continue to brewed and packaged" at Boulevard in KC. Between Boulevard, Firestone Walker and Ommegang, Duvel will have about 1.2 mil bbls of capacity in US. In the last few years, parent co Duvel has transformed itself from dependence on declining European mkts to a significant and growing stake in the dynamic US craft segment.  

Speaking of craft-loving markets with new breweries, take a quick look at a couple other clips that filtered in this week. Look out Burlington, Vermont. Though Infinity Brewing Co may have closed up shop there already, a Quebec, Canada-based brewing company expanding into the states is already moving in. Farnham Ale & Lager has moved into the Burlington site vacated by Infinity, after buying its lease and brewing license, according to the Montreal Gazette. The new location adds stateside operations for a Quebecois company that opened in just 2014. It produced 6500 hectolitres (about 5500 bbls) in 2015 and expects production in the US of about 3000 hectos (about 2500 bbls). Meanwhile, a trio of entrepreneurs plan to open Foam Brewers, also in Burlington, by April, WPTZ reports. Out in Grand Rapids, Michigan, just as Founders builds a new facility in town for specialty products, Elk Brewing plans to open a second brewpub, according to MLive. And the small brewers keep opening or expanding in Portland, Oreg too: just south of the city, Oregon City Brewing just announced it'll open a second location this year too, The New School writes.  

Deal struck between industry members and state politicians in Georgia yesterday essentially turns back the clock and gives brewers what they thought they'd won during legislative session last year. That is: compromise paves the way for brewers to sell tours "at variable prices based on the kind of beer offered," the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported. Recall that brewers hoped to have a bill introduced this year that pushed for much more sweeping changes, including some that may have adjusted current state franchise laws. That bill is now off the table, leaving some brewers grumbling. Following this compromise, brewers have more options for selling tours and food, options they wouldn't have if a broader bill failed to pass during an already-brief legislative session in an election year. So compromise may be a step in the right direction, even if it does suggest brewers couldn't find momentum or support for broader changes.

Deal struck by Georgia Craft Brewers Guild, Georgia Beer Wholesalers Assn and state legislators and executives as high up as the Governor's office requires the Dept of Revenue to "issue new regulations" that allow for variable tour pricing. It also will allow breweries and distilleries to sell food on site, hold special events, use social media to tell drinkers where to find their products and use third parties to sell tour tickets. The most important piece by far is flexibility in tour pricing.

Recall, between Senate Bill 63's passage last Spring and its effective date on July 1, Dept of Revenue employees ok'd tour pricing plans that brewers sent to them which included variable prices based on the type or volume of "souvenir" beer later provided for free. That was before the late-September DoR bulletin that effectively eliminated that option and required pricing to have nothing to do with "the market value of the alcohol furnished." And here we are again in late-January, when the DoR has been asked to issue new guidelines that explicitly allow the kind of pricing structures they ok'd in the first place.

As Georgia press followed this story closely (the above-linked story appeared on page 1A, by the way), the GWBA remained largely mum on the issues. This week, they're "thrilled about the compromise," spokesperson Martin Smith told the paper, reminding that "we're in the business of promoting our brewers partners in order to generate success." On the other hand, local press has repeatedly quoted both brewer members and exec director Nancy Palmer of the GCBG right along. This week, Nancy confirmed to CBN that "an agreement with the governor's office and legislative leadership for regulatory fixes to the brewing industry has been reached." "We look forward to quick implementation," she added. However, no sign yet how quick that implementation may be. Indeed, "any changes to existing regulations will be published for public comment in accordance with Georgia law," a DoR spokesperson told the AJC. Recall that the bulletin the Dept issued last fall was published without public comment.  

It might be a tight fit in Yards Brewing's tap room when upwards of 12K folks descend on Philadelphia for the Craft Brewers Conference this spring. But its core brands shouldn't be too difficult to find around town, while the co searches for a new, larger home. Yards finished 2015 shipping just shy of 42K bbls, COO Trevor Pritchett told Craft Brew News. That's up about 10% over 2014 and a bit slower than it's grown over the past few years. Trevor confirmed that the back half of the year was "certainly tougher than the first half," as trends across many craft brewers showed. That may be a "sign of increasing competition starting to mount," he acknowledged, which "manifests itself most on premise." But that ain't new and has been "building steadily over time."

The first part of 2016 involves a search for a new location for Yards, the company's fifth since its inception. Note that when we wrote about the co's expansion plans a few weeks ago, we incorrectly identified the Manayunk section of Philly as Yards' current home. That's where co-founder Tom Kehoe first established the company, which has moved to 3 other sites since. Its current facility is in the Northern Liberties neighborhood, a quick jaunt up from Old City, where it moved in 2007. The co may be able to remain in the current location to expand, but that involves "securing the rest of the block," Trevor explained, and a deal with a different landlord. Either way, Yards hopes to remain relatively close to center city as it spends $16-20 mil to expand production, step up from a 50-bbl to a 100-bbl brewhouse, add a canning line and more, ideally by late 2017.

A new homebase will help Yards serve its relatively tight distribution footprint. It's currently sold in just 5 states surrounding Philly and isn't yet available throughout those states. Yards still sells over 70% of its volume within 100 miles of the brewery and hasn't entered a new market in 3 years, Trevor told us. So the co grew about 60%, from about 26K bbls in 2012, without expanding distribution. It's in Northern Virginia as well as Baltimore and Eastern Maryland, but not DC, just as it's in Northern New Jersey but not NYC. So the current footprint is "book-ended by two very big, urban metro markets." Yards has no definitive plans to enter either, but that "doesn't mean that we're not looking at them," according to Trevor, waiting to see "real brand awareness in neighboring markets" before pulling the trigger.

Just as close-in markets represent most of Yards' volume, so do core beers. Over 70% of Yards volume is also in its three lead brands, Philadelphia Pale Ale, Brawler and IPA. PPA remains Yards largest brand, up 12% last year, Trevor said. And unlike many other craft cos, PPA and Brawler are growing faster than IPA. Both of those brands can "move in greater volume," Trevor noted, as they're under 5% ABV, whereas Yards' IPA clocks in at 7%. Brawler, the co's take on an English Dark Mild (a malt-forward style in sharp contrast to today's en vogue hop-centric flavors) has "gained some ground" within the Yards portfolio, Trevor said, suggesting that "everyone's leading with their IPA," so "oftentimes it makes better sense" to find another beer in the portfolio to complement a bar's tap list. The co brews plenty of specialty options and is cycling in new seasonal Golden Hop IPA at the moment, but "our continued growth is coming from our core," Trevor told us, led by the above 3 brands as well as Love Stout and ESA. Other than a seasonal switch or two, Yards isn't throwing too much against the wall this year, focusing instead on ensuring consistent quality in its core brands. It's already got a team of 4 working in its QC lab, Trevor said, an outsized staff for a brewer its size. As competition ramps up, particularly on-premise, Yards keeps focusing attention on this team that's "making a difference for us in terms of quality" that's "shining through at the tap," Trevor said.  

Allagash had another "really great year," up "mid-teens" to "just under 83,000 barrels," director of sales Naomi Neville told Craft Brew News. That's without expanding into any new territory and without releasing any new year-round brands. Instead, Allagash focused on "stronger" growth in existing territories with existing brands. Co had "huge success" in New England in particular, including home state, ME, where sales were up 23%. Recall, Allagash already over 1 share of ME beer as of 2013 and that's only grown. Meanwhile, its largest market, SoCal, is "becoming increasingly competitive especially in the on premise," she acknowledged. Chicago, NYC, Boston and ME round out its top-5 mkts, and notably "we had a great year with the Sheehan Family" in the various mkts where they've partnered, including NY, MA, NJ, VA and MD.

Flagship Allagash White remains a sizable 80% of Allagash total biz. So it grew another 10K bbls to over 66,000 bbls total in 2015 on its own. And a little over half of that was draft. Three other Allagash brands were "in the 4-5% range" of its total product mix and helped boost sales too: Saison, Tripel and Curieux. In its second yr, Allagash Saison sales doubled in tracked scan data (off fairly small base), tho actually ended up less of Allagash's total product mix than in its intro year. But that's due to "really strong growth" with Allagash Tripel and "as much growth as we can possibly have with Curieux" (they literally can't make enuf of it). Saison is "definitely our second brand" and "growing in momentum," Naomi added, as co looks to build "more awareness" this yr thru its "Saison Day" festival - this year it's "trying to get a bunch of other breweries" involved.

To further increase focus off-premise, Allagash hired an off-premise key accounts manager. There are now 13 outside sales reps and managers and currently 5 open positions in various markets that Allagash lookin' to fill. Now up to over 100 total employees in the company. Yet even as Allagash ups its focus off-premise, approx 67% of its biz is still on-premise (down from near 70% in 2014). And even amid the tuff on-premise environment, "we were happy" with on-premise performance, said Naomi. In fact, Allagash White was #9 craft brand on premise in GuestMetrics data set, she shared. Takin' a closer look, Allagash White $$ up 1.7% tho volume slightly down (-0.5%) for full yr. In that data set, ahead of Dogfish 60 Min IPA ($$ -1.4%), Coors Banquet (+0.6%) and Stone IPA (-2%), among others. Altogether Allagash now #20 vendor in GuestMetrics data. Tho $$ sales declined 1.3% for the yr, that was still 6th best trend among top-25 vendors and sales improved to +4% for last 12 wks.

Allagash currently has 96K bbls of annual capacity and will continue to methodically build out capacity further to "keep up with demand," Naomi said. Recall, its facility ultimately could be capable of producing up to 200K bbls/yr, founder Rob Tod told CBN back in Jul 2014. Allagash plans to stay put again this yr in its 17 states + DC footprint. Yet this year it will introduce a new year-round brew called "16 Counties" in April - a Belgian Pale Ale with a traditional Belgian yeast, all locally sourced malt and "some" local hops. Co "trying as much as possible" to only use local ingredients as a nod to its home-state, since "16 Counties" refers to the 16 counties within the state of ME. And Allagash will release a one-off of Little Brett in 12oz bottles for the first time, along with 2d year of Hugh Malone 12oz bottles.  

Just as AB's big SAMCOM meeting with distribs wrapped up in Dallas this week, the co filed an application to open another 10 Barrel brewpub in another crowded craft market, this time San Diego. The proposed site is a 10K+ sq-ft building in San Diego's East Village, according to the application turned up by Brandon Hernández for West Coaster SD. The brewpub would be 10 Barrel's 5th, assuming it opens after the planned site in Denver. Three others operate in Bend and Portland, Oreg, and Boise, ID. That's in addition to the 4 Elysian retail locations in Seattle, 4 Four Peaks spots in Arizona, 2 Breckenridge locations in Colorado, current Golden Road tap room in LA (soon to be joined by a bigger space at coming Anaheim facility), the Goose Island taproom opened in Chicago last year (which could be joined by another taproom at vast barrel house also in Chi) and the Blue Point taproom recently renovated on Long Island, NY. Yep, a San Diego 10 Barrel brewpub and added GR and Goose locations could mean 20 retail sites just within AB's High End unit, many of which are in big urban markets. And this is the 2nd time 10 Barrel will be tapped in for a big craft-loving mkt.