Just-released annual Gallup Poll on US drinking habits just the most recent snapshot of consumers that provides insights into beer and other alc bev trends. Gallup shows a few remarkably consistent measures. About 2/3 of US adults drink alc bevs, a figure that's hardly changed for decades. That's a strong argument that huge mktg/advtg spend may affect brand/bev choice, but surely not persuading more adults to drink. Then too, 42% of drinkers say they drink beer most often, 34% say wine and just 21% say liquor. That's basically unchanged since 2000, even while spirits has grabbed 5-6 share of alc bev consumption during this period. Gallup doesn't measure volume by alc bev type, so can't tell whether beer drinkers drinking less per occasion, spirits drinkers more or whether there's more cross-bev imbibing. Could be all 3.

Gallup polls again confirm that consumers clearly underreport consumption. Roughly 1/3 of drinkers say they had their last drink within 24 hrs, 1/3 within last week and 1/3 over a week ago. Other Gallup data shows the mean # of drinks consumed per week to be only 4. But based on shipments data, we figure every drinker in US averages well over that. Finally, Gallup shows consumers with higher income and higher education significantly more likely to consume alc bevs and much more likely to consume them more often than those with less income. Indeed, almost half of consumers in households with income over $75K/yr say they had their last drink within 24 hours, vs just 18% of those in households with income under $30K. Probably not a coincidence that those with higher income and more education also report better health in govt surveys. That's a strong argument that prevention should be aimed at heavy users, not drinkers per se. (Beer remains more popular among lower and middle-income consumers than those with higher incomes.)

Another set of (govt) surveys we've been looking at (in sister pub Alcohol Issues INSIGHTS) show that not only state-by-state, but county-by-county drinking (and heavy drinking) patterns vary sharply. These surveys suggest that "all drinking is local" which has implications for alcohol policy (fed vs state vs local) but also for marketers. But local preferences ain't news to beer biz and "local" is playing increasingly important role in evolution of craft segment especially. Calif data shows, for example, that in-state craft brewers flying collectively, while craft volume from out of state actually declining.  

Total craft segment growth still outstanding at 16%, according to BA (see above) even tho top 2 BA-defined craft brewers didn't grow beer volume in 1st half and neither did several other large craft players. Makes gain all the more impressive. Craft on pace to grow another 3-3.5 mil bbls in 2015, well over 1 full share point. Yet NBB just flat in 1st half, Harpoon slightly less than flat and Brooklyn also flat at best in US, tho up 12.5% in all with export gain. That's 5 of top 15 craft brewers not growing in summer of 2015.

So how is craft segment still flyin'? Of course, this is big consumer wave and lotsa folks still catching it. But how does math work? Some larger regional/natl players, such as Lagunitas, Founders, Firestone Walker, getting outsized growth. Each still up 40-50%. And #2 craft brewer, Sierra Nevada putting up its best growth rate in many yrs. It accelerated to 20% growth in 1st half on back of 30% growth in 1st qtr. Then too, numerous local and regional players still goin' through the roof. And there are 700 new brewers in last 12 mos alone, according to BA stats. Put it all together and math still works for segment, tho competitive pressure on individual players is increasing.

And that increased competition just one of many reasons why so many more craft brewers are deciding to take on investors, sell out, do an ESOP, etc. Others include obscene amounts of money being offered, lack of succession planning, fear of costs of expansion and a sense that the time is now. Get out while the getting is good. Craft m&a started to accelerate in 2014. INSIGHTS tracked 10 transactions last yr. But it seems 2015 is the Year of the Deal. INSIGHTS tracked 13 craft transactions thru 7 mos alone, including ESOPs, private equity, strategic players and more. Several new developments in July. Firestone Walker's deal to sell to Duvel Moortgat is largest craft transaction so far at around $250 mil. Two solid Colo brewers, Odell and Left Hand, announced sale of majority to ESOPs. Another one of fastest growing craft brewers in recent yrs, Atlanta's SweetWater, is working towards an IPO later this yr (recall, it sold minority stake to TSG last yr). At presstime, another deal reportedly imminent involving another strategic buyer.

No secret and not new that AB continues to shed volume and share in nation's largest mkt, especially to Constellation and Calif craft. But what's new is AB bringing lotsa pressure to bear, often on its own distribs, especially those that carry Constellation. And there are many of them, probably more than 10. It's again a reprise of an old story, as if AB believes distribs' divided allegiances are the problem, instead of what's happening in the marketplace. Look at latest data: AB volume down 4.3% yr-to-date thru July 5 in Calif IRI multioutlet + convenience. And AB $$ share fell to 31 in IRI (likely much less on-premise with 500 craft brewers in Calif, many of whom have popular tasting rooms). AB lost 1.7 share of $$ in Calif IRI YTD. Meanwhile, Constellation again up double digits. Gained 1.5 share of $$ to 20 share of $$. Ding, ding, ding-20%. Recall, that's Constellation's longterm national mkt share goal for its Gold Network. Constellation growth led by the Monster That Is Modelo Especial. Modelo Especial $$ sales up 25% in Calif YTD and it gained 1.5 share of $$ all by itself to 8.4, with $$ sales growth 3/4 the size of entire craft segment. One brand. Meanwhile, craft $$ up 22% and over 2 share of $$ to 12. So Constellation and craft up 3.5 share of $$ to 1/3 of the mkt. MillerCoors and HUSA also each down 4-5% YTD. But AB is the one that's freakin' out.

To say these 2 brewers, AB and Constellation, have become archrivals is an understatement. Constellation's continued gains clearly drive AB crazy, according to many sources. Recently, ABI top brass made mkt visits, including ceo Brito himself. He went to at least a couple of distribs in Northern Calif, and a couple of branches too, with an entourage of top global and US mgt. Group reportedly included global sales chief Luiz Edmund, North American prexy João Castro Neves, mktg veep Jorn Socquet, sales veep David Almeida and more. (They had global leadership meeting elsewhere in Calif.) Those meetings mainly info-gathering on imports and craft, expressing concern, not heavy handed, sez source. But mere presence of so much top brass could be viewed as uncomfortable.

Tuffer separate meetings held by AB's biz development group with several Bay Area distribs. AB has over a dozen mostly smaller distribs in Northern Calif. And AB has long wanted consolidation in Bay Area. But now pushing that hard. Several possibilities raised, including AB distribs combining, selling off Constellation volume, AB buying, etc. AB made low offers to buy out some distribs, according to several sources. Then too, AB also turning up heat on distribs that carry Constellation. They express stream of dissatisfactions re distrib performance that one source likened to "waterboarding" and another called the most pressure his firm had faced in decades. Some AB folks say if distribs want to keep Constellation, they should have a separate sales force.

All this getting lotsa attention, with behind-scenes rumblings about whether ABI in compliance with US Dept of Justice agreement (that prohibits AB from disapproving deals because distrib has Modelo for 3 yrs ending next Jun). Then too, Calif AG's office issued 2010 directive prohibiting brewers from contractually dictating how distribs run their biz. Some even suggest AB actions could interfere with Constellation's biz relationship with distribs. Constellation didn't comment on that, but said its "great relationships" with its distribs are "based on trust, mutual respect and adherence to the rules and regulations that guide our 3-tier system." Added: "We have full confidence that our distributors know what's best for their respective businesses and our brands." Stay tuned.  

While global ABI EBITDA up 4.6% in Q2, in US, EBITDA down 7% for 2d qtr in a row. Recall, ABI US EBITDA down 1% organically in 2014 at $6 bil. Continued volume declines and lack of pricing power seemingly taking a toll on AB ability to increase earnings.AB rev per bbl again up just 1.2% in 2d qtr, following 1.3% gain in 1st qtr. That's even tho ABI ceo Brito had guided towards more normal (2-3%) rev per bbl gains in 2015. The culprits, according to Brito on conference call, are largely the Rita sisters. Brito made repeated references to their shortfall on call and big impact of that on price/mix. He also called weather a "major negative factor" on US volume, with the "wettest" May in 100 yrs.

But analysts are beginning to raise more questions about ABI in US. In report entitled: "The First Signs of Bumps in the Road," Bernstein's Trevor Stirling noted "a number of new negatives" including "more pressure on price mix and gross margin" in US, citing Ritas as reason for "approx 140 bps of underlying margin contraction in the USA." Then too, "top line prospects remain muted, with a soft US beer market and structural share losses to craft and Mexican imports, which will take years to address." And Nomura's Ian Shackleton told Wall St Jnl: "The feeling that the recovery of US beer this year, with lower gas prices, there's no sign of that."

In 2d half 2015, AB will get sizable rev boost as shipments will be much better than depletions, cfo Felipe Dutra acknowledged. With shipments down 3.5% and depletions down 1.9% in 1st half, suggests 750-800,000-bbl difference. ABI still looks to make those lines converge on a full yr basis. AB also has easy comp in 3d qtr, when shipments down 3.5% last yr. On other hand, Bud Light 4-week trends got about 3 points softer around Memorial Day in Nielsen, and stayed at -3-4% ever since. Surprisingly, no analyst asked any questions about recent steeper drops for Bud Light on call. AB has tuff comp on Bud Light in Q3, going up against qtr last yr when it gained 1 share of premium lights, in what Brito called an "amazing" result (even tho it was down 2%). Bud Light down low single digits again in Q2 and 1st half 2015 but "brand health metrics... continue to improve," sez ABI. Bud also down low single digits but "delivered one of its best volume and market share results in recent years," ABI said. But there's "still a long way to go" with Bud, Felipe said. And tho AB gaining subpremium share, those continue off low-single digits too.

AB sez it's gaining share in above premium, led by double-digit gains for Michelob Ultra, Stella Artois and Goose Island. That's "partly offset" by the Ritas, which are "facing strong competitive pressure" (down 22% in IRI YTD). Michelob Ultra "is the fastest growing brand in the market," Brito said on call, by "absolute volume gains" and it is "on fire." Conspicuous in their absence from conference call: any reference to performance of Montejo, Oculto, or MixxTails, none of which are remotely on fire.

Meanwhile, July not best mo for ABI in all, on top of its weaker-than-expected results. On Jul 15, AmBev unit paid $195-mil fine in Brazil, for program there that aims to "encourage resellers to make sure at least 90 percent of the beer they sell comes from AmBev," according to report in Law 360. Brazilian govt watchdog found that program stifled competition and AmBev agreed to pay fine after 6 yr battle. This came down just as ABI considering implementing similar incentive program to get distribs to be more exclusive in US. Then on Jul 30, ABI was used as a poster child in need for tax reform by US Senate Subcommitee exploring "competitive disadvantage" US corporations face because of tax code, leading to more M&A by foreign corporations. Having already lost right to have branches in KY, Tenn earlier this yr, AB now could face that prospect in Okla. But AB added small branch in NYC. And its relations with distribs, often tenuous at best, took turn for worse as it ratcheted up pressure on distribs in Calif and elsewhere. Read on.

Despite a ton of investments, initiatives and innovations by top 2 in the mkt, US beer trends stayin' stubbornly the same. AB and MillerCoors each continue down low single-digits while Constellation and craft (collectively) roll on with double-digit gains. HUSA and Pabst up slightly in Q2, thanks mostly to cider and hard root beer respectively. Boston, which we now include with our top suppliers list, softened considerably so far this yr, but still up 10%+ for 12 mos, riding cider/tea strength.

Overall, US malt bev/cider biz flat, flat, flat for 6 mos as mainstream softness offset Constellation/craft gains. Jun taxpaid shipments up 100,000 bbls, 0.6%, leaving them even for Q2. But taxpaids still down 1.5 mil bbls, 1.7% for 6 mos. Imports up near 10%, we figure, (Jun is estimate), and cider still adding bbls, tho cider has slowed.

AB reported shipments decline of 1.1% in Q2, depletions off 2.2%. That followed 6% shipments hit in Q1 as AB had to adjust after building inventory in Q1 2014. So 6-mo decline near 1.7 mil bbls, 3.5%. And 12-mo drop close to 3%. Meanwhile, MC reported smaller shipments drop (-2%) than depletions (-3%) in Q2. Shipments off 2.2% for 6 mos, about 150,000 bbls ahead of depletions. On shipments basis, our estimates suggest that combined 12-mo mkt share for AB and MC dipped below 70. In 2008, when MC formed and AB purchased by InBev, combined share was over 78.

While AB and MC continue down 2-3%, Constellation Brands Beer Division (CBBD) still clickin' along at double-digit pace. Up 10%+ in Q2 again, as we noted last issue, as well as for 6 and 12 mos. CBBD passed 15-mil-bbl mark for 12 mos (for 1st time) and over 7 share of US beer biz during that period. Gained almost 1.5 mil bbls while AB and MC dropped nearly 4 mil bbls between 'em. HUSA +1% for Q2 and 6 mos, we estimate, boosted by Strongbow. Pabst back in black in Q2, thanks to zooming Not Your Father's Root Beer. (Our note last issue that Pabst down in Nielsen All Outlet thru Jul 4 did not include NYFRB in that cut of the data. With NYFRB, trends clearly better.) Pabst still off slightly for 6 mos and about 2% for 12 mos. Overall, Boston shipments up 7% for Q2, tho gain was cider and tea. Sam Adams brands down, Boston reported. Yuengling took tuff 8% hit in Q2 goin' against Mass and RI rollouts last yr. Off 3.5% YTD. Yuengling biz up slightly in southeast, "but challenged and off mid-singles" in northeast, coo Dave Casinelli told INSIGHTS. Then too, off-premise biz "holding up," said Dave, but on-premise, competition from craft takin' a toll. That's true too for Diageo Guinness USA. DGUSA volume off 3% for 12 mos thru Jun; down slightly steeper than that in 1st half of 2015. Craft volume up 1.6 mil bbls, 16% Jan-Jun, BA economist Bart Watson estimates, including estimates for Boston's beer biz and Yuengling. Below them, craft gain closer to 20%+. Craft trends all over the lot among biggest players (see below).  

Pabst continues to make lotsa moves. In just last mo, Pabst's hyperactive CEO Eugene Kashper picked up piece of super-hot Not Your Father's Root Beer (with partner TSG), hired Heineken's former global strategy chief Chris Barrow to lead its M&A efforts, and announced Pabst will open small brewery on old Pabst site in Milwaukee. Recall, Pabst also just added Tsingtao. But Pabst's overall sales trends continue to be sluggish.

On Jul 15, Eugene announced Pabst will brew again in Milwaukee as signaled in Jan. Pabst will build a "micro-brewery," brew "craft beers" and open tasting room on site of co's former facility downtown. Plans to invest $3-5 mil for what Eugene calls an "innovation laboratory" that will operate in a corner of old Pabst facility, set to open next summer.

While moving fast on brand, brewery ideas, Pabst less successful so far at revving up sales or moving existing brands from distrib to distrib. Pabst down 3.2% yr-to-date thru Jul 4 in Nielsen All Outlet, slightly steeper for 4 weeks. What's more, Pabst continues several legal scrapes with distribs in states where it is attempting to make a change.

Latest on Calif, Ohio Termination Litigation In Calif, Pabst tried again to persuade Superior Ct in Los Angeles to clear termination of Mission Bev using different laws/tactics. Pabst still insists Calif law allows "successor manufacturer" to move brands if successor distribs pay fair mkt value. Mission continues to insist Calif law/precedent allow no such termination right, only provide method to determine fair mkt value if termination legit. And that's not case here, Mission asserts. In latest round of papers, Mission filed request for court to stay the arbitration scheduled Sep 8-10, on tap well before any hearing planned in court case (next Feb). Two distribs -- Beauchamp and Classic -- are "pursuing arbitration against Mission," but 3d distrib named in original termination, Reyes Bev Group's Harbor, has "withdrawn." Court should stay arbitration since law doesn't allow Pabst to terminate in 1st place and doesn't allow Pabst to breach its contract with Mission. In any case, legality of termination "should be resolved before resources are spent on an arbitration that, at most, would determine only one limited aspect of one potential remedy," Mission argues. Besides, if arbitration completed before court case, distrib rights could be transferred before court case resolved and arbitrator could come up with damaging, "contrary rulings" on Calif Law. Mission also argued that Pabst is not a "successor beer manufacturer" under Calif law since new owners do not hold "any of the three licenses" needed and Pabst brands being brewed and imported into Calif "under the same license that it had" before Nov 2014 deal.

In Oh, handful of distribs taking similar tacks in trying to fight off termination by Pabst under that state's successor manufacturer law. While Pabst wants to proceed with discovery of "diminished value" to those distribs, distribs want that held off until court determines whether terminations legit in first place.

While AB and MC continue to lose share, makin' moves to shore up beer biz, Constellation keeps clickin' along. For 6 mos thru May 2015, volume, revs and operating income each up double-digits while overall industry shipments basically flat. For 6 mos thru Jun, which we'll have next issue, Constellation volume trends will mirror those in table below, tho raw #s will be bigger (adding Jun 2015 and dropping Dec 2014). Constellation's beer biz "unstoppable," CEO Rob Sands crowed on Jul 2 conference call and "no reason to believe there will be a significant slowdown" over the rest of fiscal yr.

Continuing shipments/depletion growth near 10% led Constellation to up volume, rev and earnings forecasts for fiscal yr, tho depletions will be up more than shipments, reversing last yr's trend. For 6 mos thru May, shipments up nearly 700,000 bbls, 10.4%. Interestingly, Constellation rev growth just a point ahead of volume for this period, +11% to $1.6 bil. So rev/bbl up just $1.21, 0.6%. That's not much price realization, likely smaller % than AB or MC will report for 6 mos. Oddly, analysts did not probe Constellation execs about this on conference call. Answering one question about pricing, Rob said he "fully expects" price/mix to be up 1-2% for the fiscal yr. Price hikes have already been announced in Fla and coming in Calif too. Those hikes 1%+ in Fla, so unless they're isolated or don't stick, looks like Rob's guidance solid so far. Not sure why Constellation got such modest rev/bbl pop in 6 mos thru May. But lotsa moving pieces in mix right now, with push on draft and cans, plus lower-priced Modelo Especial still outpacing Corona Extra.

Analysts more focused on operating margin. Constellation operating profits up 13.6% for 6 mos to $554 mil. Margin hit 34 even during that period, up almost a full point. Constellation expects 2d half margins to be "choppy" tho, new CFO David Klein said on call. AB InBev has "inflation price hike" coming, and there will be mktg investments, but expanded production coming on by end of yr at Nava.

Interim MillerCoors ceo Gavin Hattersley wasted no time setting a markedly different tone. As noted above, MC let go of CMO Andy England and sales prexy Ed McBrien on Gavin's 2d day. Each held their senior roles since MillerCoors inception 7 yrs ago in Jul 08 (and they'd run Coors mktg and sales functions for yrs before that). MillerCoors sales declined every yr since JV formed tho profits kept hitting record highs. MC volume down 8.7 mil bbls, 13.5% since 2008. With 2.7% drop in 1st qtr and perhaps steeper declines in 2d qtr, MC on pace to lose another 1.5 mil bbls or so in 2015 and be down 10+ mil bbls since inception.

Tho moves hadda be in works for awhile and Gavin obviously had buy-in from corporate parents SABMiller and Molson Coors, changes may have come as surprise to execs themselves, especially Ed. In late May, Ed had talked about MC "momentum" in another industry publication. Yet MC sales have deteriorated in peak selling season. MillerCoors down over 3% last 8 weeks in Nielsen All-Outlet thru Jul 4 (down 4.1% for 4 weeks thru June 6 and 2.4% for 4 weeks thru July 4), compared to 1.4% yr-to-date.

MillerCoors named David Kroll cmo, previously innovations veep and Kevin Doyle sales prexy, previously chief commercial officer. "We are not satisfied with our volume performance, so we need to take action to change that dynamic," Gavin said in terse official statement on changes. No public words of praise or thanks for Andy and Ed's many yrs of service, tho Gavin's internal message thanked them and praised team for "remarkable job in managing costs and providing outstanding financial returns."

MillerCoors has new ceo, cmo and sales prexy since July 1. That's a lot of change at the very top, in a turbulent period with tough sales trends. Recall, MC also replaced 4 members of its senior leadership team in 2d half of last yr (Pete Marino, Scott Whitley, Jamie McDermid & Michelle Nettles joined the SLT). So 7 of 11 execs on its sr leadership team in their current roles for less than a year. Not only that, but lotsa 2d and 3d tier mktg and sales execs leaving, creating thin bench, INSIGHTS hears. For example, Coors Light brand director Malini Patel named earlier this yr; she already left for vp job at Jim Beam. But MC source sez departures not more than usual and often for bigger oppys elsewhere. Still, MC reportedly finding some difficult to replace, just as it was difficult to find right ceo.

Gavin hit the ground running with these moves, creating some energy and even optimism inside MC, maintained MC source, because of swiftness of these changes and what some viewed as their necessity. But there's also likely some trepidation. Gavin is sending unmistakable message that status quo of -2-3% is no longer acceptable. That could lead to many other changes. All this occurs against backdrop of further uncertainty regarding the fate of at least one corporate parent, SABMiller. SABMiller perennially the subject of speculation that it will be bought by ABI. And SABMiller undergoing many changes of its own, including recent announcement of Domenic DeLorenzo as permanent cfo.

Number one brand in beer biz under pressure in middle of peak-selling season 2015. Bud Light dropped 4.4% each of last two 4-week periods, thru Memorial Day and until July 4 4th in Nielsen All Outlet data. That's even while Miller Lite volume continued up slightly in last 4 weeks and YTD (0.7%) and Coors Light down slightly (-0.6% YTD). Bud Light lost fully 1 share of $$ last 4 weeks. Down 0.7 YTD. Volume now down 1.5% YTD in Nielsen, so its dropoff got significantly steeper as summer started. It lost 0.9 share of premium lights last 4 weeks in Nielsen all outlet, 0.3 for yr. (Bud Light nearly even in share of premium light in IRI data yr-to-date, sez AB, but softer recently. Down 2.3% for 4 weeks thru Jun 14 in IRI MULC, compared to flat YTD.) Tho cause of Bud Light's recent softness not clear, many possible reasons suggested by distribs, others: World Cup comps, hotness of Mich Ultra, mktg shortcomings, improved relative Coors Light performance, steeper premium light struggles and softer biz overall. Meanwhile, Bud Light brand veep Alex Lambrecht told INSIGHTS that Bud Light's brand health metrics improving yr over yr, citing recent Whatever USA 2.0 weekend beating all its KPIs (key performance indicators) in digital, social, mobile etc.

Even if reasons for softness unclear, this much is clear: reduced prices didn't help Bud Light volume in biggest scan mkt, Los Angeles. In fact, arguably lower prices hurt as Bud Light share trends and volume got worse over last 13 weeks. That's even as AB went back to pricing from 2 or 3 yrs ago on key packages. It's the old story: cutting prices doesn't build volume for a declining brand, except perhaps a short-term pop. Others cut price too and competitive position remains unchanged, but all make less. And hot brands continue to grow. Here are most recent LA #s: Bud Light $$ sales down 8.8% for 13 weeks thru Jul 5 in LA IRI multioutlet + convenience data and it lost 1.1 share to 14. That's compared to 4.6% $$ sale drop in 1st half and loss of 0.9 share. Avg prices of a case of Bud Light down 6 cents in last 13 weeks compared to a yr ago. Meanwhile, Modelo Especial remains on fire in SoCal. Up 21% and gained 2.2 share of $$ last 13 weeks to 11.6. That's even while Montejo grabbed half share of incremental $$ for AB. Raises prospect that Modelo Especial could be #1 brand in scan next yr in nation's largest scan mkt. Wow!

Did all the line-extensions such as Ritas and Platinum dilute Bud Light's brand equity? Could argue either way, hard-to-say definitively, but line extensions aren't helping now. Ritas volume down 28% last 4 weeks in Nielsen nationally and 23% YTD. Lost 0.6 share of $$. Bud Light Platinum down mid-teens, tho Bud Light Lime improved to even for 13 wks.

Recall, Bud Light down 2% all channels in 1st qtr, ABI reported, following improvement to estimated 1.7% drop last yr. Bud Light down each yr since ABI bought AB. Down 4.7 mil bbls, 11% since 2008. Judging by scan data, overall trend likely steeper than 2% drop in 2d qtr. So what did AB do? As noted, AB changed agency on Bud Light for 4th time in 4 yrs, moving to Weiden & Kennedy (which just gave up Heineken brand), following BBDO, Translation and McGarry & Bowen. That level of change on #1 brand unprecedented. What's more, ABI has also had at least 4 execs in charge of mktg since 2008.

Yet this is 1st agency switch under current mktg veep Jorn Socquet. While Jorn said he was "extremely proud" of work done with BBDO, ABI will switch to Wieden & Kennedy. "It's too early to say if Bud Light will continue with its 'Up for Whatever' campaign or its Whatever USA festivities," wrote Ad Week. But yr 2 of Whatever USA didn't generate media buzz that last yr's did. Here's Jorn: "Maybe we continue with Whatever USA, maybe we don't…. But in any case we will have a very hard look at it." Meanwhile, Jorn cited Wieden & Kennedy's "longstanding relationships with partners throughout the world" and "trust" as attractions to ABI. "Those are the kinds of partnerships we want to develop…. We truly see this as a longterm relationship," said Jorn. Could be, but given ABI's track record in recent yrs, proof will be in the pudding.

Per usual, lotsa developments while BMI on its early-summer hiatus, several important ones. Long-anticipated changes at top of MC happened with stunning swiftness, as long-standing mktg and sales vets Andy England and Ed McBrien moved on just one day after interim CEO Gavin Hattersley took the helm from Tom Long. That was change for sure, amidst backdrop of continued soft sales in 2015, including weak week of July 4th for both AB and MillerCoors, following rough Memorial Day. Indeed, Gavin pointed primarily to dissatisfaction with volume in announcing these moves.

Same day, over at AB, as Bud Light trend worsened in last couple of mos (see below) and AB continues to lose share, AB made predictable move: it changed ad agencies on lead brand. Whether 4th agency change in 4 yrs will be the charm for Bud Light remains to be seen. But so far, none of the many moves AB or MC has made over last few years -- in innovation, mkt spend, personnel, pricing, you name it -- has really moved the needle on volume for either one. In another familiar note at AB, it got into a spat with state distrib assn. AB left Beer Distribs of Okla, ostensibly over lack of alignment on how to reform laws governing cold beer/strong beer. But battle could become yet another showdown over branches in state where vast majority of AB volume sold thru its Tulsa/Okla City operations.

Between soft volume patch, big personnel changes, another agency switch and brewer vs wholesaler battles (especially AB), you get a picture of an industry in some turmoil. Does all this bode even more change coming? Or more of the same? Top execs will have chance to comment soon; Q2 reports just around the corner.

Meanwhile, Constellation's bang-up first fiscal qtr (Mar-May) was lots more of the same, as #3 supplier put up notably strong volume, revenue and profit growth numbers again and assured that build-out of Nava brewery on schedule. Indeed, qtr was sign that Constellation momentum is "unstoppable," touted ceo Rob Sands.

Latest Craft Deal; Duvel Buys Firestone Walker And whaddya know? At presstime, more breaking news that fits our theme of "plus ça change plus c'est la meme chose" (translated as "the more things change the more they stay the same"). Fast-growing Firestone Walker will sell its biz to Belgian brewer Duvel Moortgat for around $250 mil, INSIGHTS understands. Just the latest of wave of craft deals changing craft landscape, even as craft's rapid growth overall continues. Firestone Walker on track to sell close to 300,000 bbls in 2015, led by astounding growth of 805 Blonde Ale, now half its volume, only sold in Calif.