On top of recent partnership to contract brew at Brew Hub (see Apr 13 issue), Toppling Goliath is in process of building a 30K bbl/yr production brewery in its hometown, Decorah, IA, founder Clark Lewey told Wisconsin State Journal last mo.  Co is also in process of “proposing a five year, sliding scale tax abatement as an incentive to build” in the Decorah Business Park and public hearing is scheduled for Monday, Aug 17, reported The Decorah Newspapers separately.  Clark hopes to complete the brewery by Spring 2016, and even suggested that there’s “strong possibility” that he’ll eventually build more breweries, tho “this will be the last brewery I build in Iowa,” due to “restrictive” state laws, he told Wisc State Jnl.  Recall, Toppling Goliath produced 3200 bbls last yr, but new partnership with Brew Hub will allow nearly 20K bbls/yr and expanded distribution thruout Midwest.  As of June 10, Brew Hub already brewed roughly 1200 bbls of various Toppling Goliath brews and sold a “very limited amount” in Fla at its Lakeland facility too, noted paper.  Meanwhile, in Wisconsin Toppling Goliath still self-distributes but “has been meeting” with several potential partners and hopes to “make a decision this year.”

“World Class” Ratings Put Decorah “on the Map” Similar to other small town breweries that’ve received high praise from beer rating sites and other public domains, Toppling Goliath has helped put Decorah “on the map,” headlined Chicago Tribune in more recent article.  Indeed, Rate Beer marks Toppling Goliath’s Kentucky Brunch (an imperial coffee stout aged in whiskey barrels) as the “single best beer in the world” and rates the overall brewery as 2d best in the world, noted paper.  And Toppling Goliath has 7 of top-100 rated beers on BeerAdvocate, including Kentucky Brunch at #2.  So beer lovers “across state lines” are willing to travel from far and wide to try these beers.  About “80 percent of the people who walk through the doors of Toppling Goliath’s taproom are out-of-towners,” taproom manager Todd Seigenthaler estimated.   Adding to its mystique, Toppling Goliath brews are only available in IA and WI, “though aggressive growth is planned,” noted paper.  Gradually “locals are increasingly interested in the world-class brewery in their backyard” too.           

Whole Foods’ Houston-based brewpub, Whole Foods Brewing Co, announced it’s partnered with Ben E Keith to distribute to all 10 Houston stores beginning Aug 8 and statewide in Tex on Sep 18, reported Houston Chronicle among other local papers.  Tho co has brewed 38 different beers since opening early Nov, “initially” it’ll only distribute its Post Oak Pale Ale as draft-only.  Since it began, Whole Foods Brewing has collaborated with several local breweries to make special-release brews, including Buffalo Bayou, Southern Star, and Karbach, paper noted.  Also recall, Whole Foods opened a second onsite brewery at its San Jose, Calif location, and continues to add in-store bars at various locations – most recently in Chicago and South Fla (see Jan 21 issue).  Stay tuned.      

After “dozens” of interviews over last 8 mos, Dogfish Head hired ex-Constellation vet Todd Bollig as its new vp of sales, co announced yesterday.  “It took a ton of time,” founder Sam Calagione told Craft Brew News this morn, but Todd is an “awesome addition.”  Over series of intereviews, Todd increasingly impressed Dogfish Head with many qualities including “how much homework he did” and how “quickly” he got up to speed on Dogfish Head’s biz and understanding unique Dogfish brand.  Recall, previous sales vp Adam Lambert left Dogfish Head in Oct of last yr to take on same role for Mich-based New Holland Brewing.  Todd held executive roles in both Sales Operations and Sales Management during his 16-yr stint with Constellation. 

Meanwhile, Dogfish Head growth has slowed a bit in 2016; but it’s still up 9-10% YTD, sez Sam, citing its “different philosophy” of what constitutes “healthy growth.” For example, Dogfish Head remains “consciously not a brand that discounts” in an environment where “discounting is the norm.”  This yr, Dogfish Head has entered no new territiories.  Instead it’s emphasizing and “celebrating the breadth of our IPA portfolio,” what Sam called the “most diverse portfolio of IPAs.” Includes pioneering imperial IPA 90 Minute, flagship continually hopped 60 Minute IPA, “world’s strongest” IPA in 120 Minute, wood-infused Burton Baton, a Dark IPA (Indian Brown) and wine/IPA hybrid 61.  All of ’em are growing.   

Dogfish Head $$ sales still up 16% in IRI multi-outlet + convenience thru Jun 14.  However it got knocked off top-25 total beer vendors list by New Glarus (+33%) after most recent 4 wk period thru Jul 12.  Lookin’ at top-brands in scans, its 60 minute IPA still a top-30 craft brand (at #30) and up 11-12% YTD thru Jul 12.  And similarly, 90 minute IPA 4pk (+21%) is #33 craft package YTD thru Jul 12. 

Group of smallest production breweries, microbreweries (<15K bbls/yr) for Brewers Assn, show “no signs of slowing” thru the first half of 2015, the org’s economist Bart Watson wrote in members-only Q2 update. “Still scorching hot,” micros now making pretty big impact on total craft segment growth. The group represented a quarter of BA-defined craft volume growth in 2014, as we wrote last issue. But if pace keeps up, the group could be a third of the gain this year, Bart suggests. With craft segment “on pace right now for 3.3-3.5 million barrels of new craft production compared to 2014,” micros could add over a mil bbls alone this yr, or about as much as the top dozen craft brewers added last yr.

Results of half-yr surveys to BA came back almost all positive: 87% of respondents reported growth, while just 13% reported volume flat or down. But “many of the no/slow growth group added notes about new capacity in the near future that would return them to growth,” Bart wrote. That reinforced his belief that excess capacity still isn’t so much of an issue for small brewers. Tacking onto stat that BA tracked almost 700 new breweries opening between mid-2014 and mid-2015, Bart acknowledged likelihood of 50-60 closings during the period, with in-planning count at 1,755. Further, on rolling 12-month basis, average numbers of breweries in-planning and new openings per month are “in-sync,” with pretty consistent 1 new opening for every 40 in planning. His surprising style call out: stouts! Craft stout volume grew 35% yr-to-date thru 7/12 in IRI MULC channel, Bart noticed despite relatively high avg price per case. The not-so-summery style’s even up slightly faster for 4 wks.

More Calif Breweries Than Most European Countries, a Third of ’Em Selling Only On-Site  The 482 California craft brewers that reported to the state in 2014 produced about 3.4 mil bbls last yr, Bart wrote. And that fast-growing number of breweries there is “more than all but four European countries,” Germany, UK, France and Italy. Many of those craft brewers were small or super-small. Over 200 breweries produced between 100-1,000 bbls, just over 100 made just 10-100 bbls. That’s more than the number of breweries producing 1,000-10,000 bbls last year, Bart showed. In fact, he counted “more breweries that made between 0-10 bbls in 2014 than made more than 10,000 bbls.” So 94% of Calif breweries produced <10,000 bbls. That’s “only possible due to the ability of small brewers in California to have limited direct sales to consumers and perform self-distribution,” Bart wrote. Indeed, 173 or over a third of Calif breweries sold all their beer on-site, which represented just 3-4% of craft volume produced in the state or 0.5% of total volume.

Overall Economy Watchouts: Interest Rates and Labor Force Participation  Finally, Bart keyed into a couple of broader economic stats he’s watching. Consistently low interest rates over past few years have probably helped capital-intensive brewing bizzes, he suggests, but should be “interesting to watch the brewery planning numbers over the next few years if rates continue to go back up in line with a recovering economy.” As for labor force participation rates: “a decent chunk of 21-44 year olds have simply dropped out of the labor force altogether,” Bart wrote. While that’s “probably one major reason why overall beer remains sluggish,” even if it hasn’t hit craft hard yet, look out if that continues.

The 2d largest craft brewer should end 2015 up 16-17%, said Sierra Nevada sales and marketing director Joe Whitney.  That would be the biggest growth rate it has posted in his 9 yrs at Sierra, and by a good margin, since 12% the previous best.  And that 16-17% would equate to 170-180,000 bbls of growth in 2015 alone, putting Sierra at around 1.25 mil bbls. Just 1 yr after cracking the 1-mil-bbl mark.  At that rate, it won’t be too many yrs before Sierra will be chasing capacity again. When Joe first got to Sierra, he told founder Ken Grossman that co could double in a decade, but doubling will happen in 9 yrs. Recall, Sierra got off to fast start with 30% growth in 1st qtr 2015, but kept firing on most cylinders through the first half and scored 20% growth in half. 

Sierra’s “Balanced” Portfolio; Hop Hunter and Nooner  Sierra Nevada now has a “much more balanced” portfolio with 5 brands at the core, according to Joe.  Much of its growth in 2015 from a pair of very successful new brand intros: Hop Hunter IPA and Nooner Pilsener, which Joe expects to sell 70-75,000 bbls and 50,000 bbls respectively this yr.  So those 2 brands alone could account for over 2/3 of Sierra’s 2015 growth.  But Torpedo Extra IPA is still up double digits and should easily pass 200,000 bbls in 2015. And flagship Sierra Nevada Pale Ale is down slightly, 0.4%.  The fifth core brand is Seasonals, which are up 9%.  Recall, Sierra changed up its Seasonal program in 2015, with 2 new entries, a Beer Camp Across America beer and an Octoberfest as well as staples, Summerfest and Celebration.  Sierra just started shipping its (first ever) Octoberfest, a collaboration with a small, storied German brewer Riegele.  Initial orders are “spectacular.”  

Meanwhile, its Variety Pack (intro’d last yr)  is up 70%, with 2 mos of all incremental sales.  It continues to “chug along and do well.”   While Sierra “late to the party” this was an “obvious missing piece” and contains 1 or 2 new beers in every pack.  The costs of making the variety pack are “brutal” but it helps to “balance the portfolio.”  (Editor’s note: interesting evolutionary turn for Joe to adopt use of phrase “balanced portfolio.” It’s one AB has bandied around quite a bit in recent yrs and which would more typically be associated with mindset of a larger company.)

“The Storm Is Here”;   Sierra Still Number One in Calif,  Became #1 in North Carolina IRI“We feel we are well positioned,” said Joe now that “the storm is here.”  What did he mean by that intriguing phrase?  “The storm is here at least for those of us who play on the national level,” explained Joe.  “It’s not realistic to think that there are going to be 10 or more healthy national craft brands” with others “lining up to take a shot at it.”  Segment as a whole remains “very bright,” but there are some watch outs for smaller brewers too.  “One concern I see,” sez Joe “is the number of smaller brewers betting on states outside their true market.”  While that’s a “hard thing to know” adds Joe, those are “big bets” and “there’s no shortage of brewers who have bet on new states and markets only to see their local supporters shift to new or smaller brewers.”  When that happens, “you’re in no man’s land and it’s tough to swim to safety.”  Sierra Nevada is still #1 in Northern Calif and Southern Calif (tho Lagunitas is hot on its heels in Northern Calif) and newly #1 in North Carolina IRI, where it’s up 40%. 

Sierra’s 2016 Goals;  First Ever Media Plan in 2016; Pricing; Beer Camp Across America 2.0  Next year, Joe expects a to return to more normal 9-10% growth rate, but pricing a bit of a wild card. “We hope to start taking pricing in October of this year.  Raw materials costs have steadily risen the past few years and will continue to increase, “ he said. “With the increasing competitiveness of the segment from private equity and international brewers, etc,” he added, “we have concerns that after this year, it could be awhile before we can take price to recoup some of those costs.” At same time,  “for the first time ever,” said Joe, “we are looking at a little media” with plan for a 7-figure spend, all digital in 2016.   Plus Beer Camp Across America will return in a 2.0 version, Joe promises, tho he’s unwilling to reveal details.  Sierra will also make another move typical of larger cos, starting next yr: “bigger bets and less of them,” sez Joe as Sierra has learned that while its brewers love to brew many different kinds of new beers, it “can’t chase” every niche and exciting beer that it could possibly make.    

CBN contributing editor popped into Oregon Brewers Fest at Portland’s Tom McCall Waterfront Park for a few hours on first 2 days of what’s now 5-day extravaganza, to enjoy alluring blend of beers and creature comforts like Mt Hood vistas, bike valet service, food-truck fare and live bands. As always, vast majority of brewers were from West Coast, with leavening of East Coast guests like Delaware’s Dogfish Head, NY’s Sixpoint and Fla’s Dunedin. As of 2d day, pushpins that visitors are invited to insert into global and US maps suggested large contingents had come from Europe, mid-Atlantic states, Austin and Fla. 

Odd ingredients and hybrids seemed to be order of day as brewers look to distinguish themselves in increasingly crowded realm. Often, the experimentation was on grain side. Thus, Ambacht Brewing was pouring Matzobrau – “only beer in the world that uses matzo crackers in the mash (along with rolled oats, two-row, Munich and chocolate malts).” Belgian-style specialist out of Hillsboro, Ore, classed Matzobrau as Belgian dark wheat. Portland’s own PINTS Urban Brewery offered Honey Bunches of Oats “breakfast beer,” with grain bill that included every “pronounceable” ingredient in classic cereal: 2-row wheat, flaked corn, flaked rice, flaked oats, white sugar, Belgian dark candy sugar and Oregon honey. “You can have your cereal and drink it, too,” brewery enthused. 

Taking advantage of region’s bounty of fruit, OBF sported Strawberry Cream Ale (from Fearless), Huckleberry Wheat (Prodigal Sun) and Flaming Peach (Laht Neppur, hitting spicy note in that brewer’s continuing series of peach-based quaffs). Old Town Brewing employed candy cap mushrooms in experimental offering with a smoky flavor called 1-Up Mushroom Ale, while Breakside Brewing (fresh off being named best local brewer in annual Willamette Week poll) offered Rainbows & Unicorns session IPA brewed with flaked rice. Ecliptic used rhubarb in its Aurora Crimson Saison. Florida’s Dunedin was pouring Mango Makrut Paradise, using mango, leaves from makrut (or kaffir) lime and grains of paradise. Klamath Basin Brewing used locally sourced russet potatoes to yield Spud Muffin Pale Ale, via slogan “This spud’s for you.”

Among contrarians, Wisconsin’s Sprecher brought to hops-happy town an Abbey Triple that clocked in at just 12 IBUs. Eugene’s 3-year-old Viking Braggot is building biz entirely around beer/mead hybrid called braggot, bringing to OBF an entry called Gypsy Tears that derived 30-40% of fermentable sugar from Oregon clover honey, with organic hibiscus flowers and blueberries also thrown into mix.

Radlers Rock   Even OBF exhibitors looking to strut their stuff don’t seem to be above offering radlers, no longer viewed as being only a summertime compromise for the masses. Notable OBF offering was Claim 52’s Runnermass Kolsch-style pale ale – the name an elaborate play on brewer’s Eugene, Ore, base, since German meaning of radler, “cyclist,” translates well enough to city known as Tracktown USA. Radlers (seemingly the preferred name regionally for what are often called shandies elsewhere) seemed to be go-to summer style for regional brewers away from fest too. Local restaurant chain Hotlips Pizza, which has branched out into fruit-forward craft sodas using regionally sourced fruits, has found willing collaborators among local brewers on radlers this spring and summer, including Migration’s kolsch for PDX Radler and Backwoods’ pale ale for Super Radler.  

New Zealand’s Thriving Craft Scene   OBF’s featured overseas guest this year was New Zealand, which sent over 5 brewers to pour their beers and undertake collaborations with local partners. At Meet the Kiwis event at bottle shop Belmont Station, the 5 brewers made compelling case that remote island nation is at cutting edge, weaving together Australian and American hops with indigenous hops and other ingredients into unique brews, for home audience that’s highly attuned to US West Coast styles – passion fed with entries like Panhead Custom Ales’ Johnny Octane, IPA with heavy dose of Columbus, Centennial and Simcoe hops.  But they’re also finding following for more arcane concepts like Yeastie Boys’ Gunnamatta, IPA brewed with big load of Earl Grey Blue Flower tea. One of more audacious brewers, Garage Project Brewery, even has taken “coals to Newcastle,” founder Jos Ruffel joked, by conjuring up Umami Monster brew from Japanese staples like kelp and bonito flakes for Japanese market. 

Brewers described remote country of 4 mil population that barely 20 years ago had established homebrew scene – Tuatara’s Carl Vasta said he joined American Homebrewers Assn in 1980 – but commercial entries from just 2 megabrewers. A few pioneers like Emerson’s and Tuatara opened doors but nobody was doing seasonal beers, there weren’t many homebrew supply shops, and with Internet access slow, it was hard to get info about what was happening overseas, recalled Yeastie Boys’ Stu McKinlay, who’s now got 5K bbl operation and is raising money to brew in UK to serve avid European fan base. (He contracts at BrewDogs for now.)

Tho focus was on brewers’ stories and beers, participants readily acknowledged early difficulties in obtaining distribution and bank financing, and continuing obstacles to finding contract-brewing capacity and obtaining excise tax relief from govt. Typical craft bar in NZ offers 8-10 taps, said Panhead’s Mike Neilson, tho a few like Wellington’s Malt House go as high as 40.   (“Panhead” is Kiwi jargon for “knucklehead,” btw.)  Tho craft only amounts to 2% of biz, sales are booming, major brewers are bringing out faux-craft entries and you can’t open a café in Wellington now without offering craft beer.  Lion purchased Emerson’s 3 years ago.

Tuatara (named for indigenous reptile) and Garage Project offered revealing contrast.  Tuatara founder Carl Vasta recalled starting out in 1992 with tiny system, figuring “if I don’t sell any beer, I’ve got a really good homebrew kit.” He started by selling into Auckland’s only 2 craft bars, offering versions of mainstream craft beers from US.  Idea was to “not hit them with double IPAs” off the bat, he recalled. But acceptance has accelerated and 5 upgrades later he’s operating 70-bbl system and employing 50. By time a group of large-brewery vets launched Garage Project nanobrewery 4 years ago, market was receptive to inaugural concept they dubbed 24/24 – 24 different beers brewed in 24 weeks.  By now they’ve expanded to 5-bbl system – “impenetrable forest of stainless steel,” said cofounder Jos Ruffel – and are exporting to Australia, Sweden, Norway and soon Southern Calif.  Reflecting brewery’s experimental tilt, Garage Project’s OBF offering was Venusian Pale Ale (VPA), using Venusian spear fungus, lemongrass and kaffir lime.

Are Acronyms Getting O.B.S.C.U.R.E. (Only Brewers, Savants and Cicerones Understand the References Easily)?   For visitor from beer-backward East Coast (at least, that was view of friendly kibitzers encountered at fest), proliferation of style acronyms could be confusing, particularly since local bars and brewpubs often don’t take trouble to translate them on chalkboards and menus.  Is that a good thing? It certainly vindicates insider cred of imbibers who know them, and perhaps adds layer of mystique for those who have to ask. But it also could be intimidating to those newer at game, or not as involved. At fest, McMenamins Edgefield Brewery offered Quatrophenia ISA – sessionable IPA. Portland Brewing was pouring variant of its S.M.A.S.H. pale ale – “single malt and single hop.” At visit to Base Camp Brewing across Willamette River, CBN encountered such brews as Solstice Spirit IRL, Celestial Meridian CDL and Forest Park and In-Tents IPLs. (Those are India red lager, Cascadian dark lager and India pale lager, respectively.) Elsewhere around town, CBN encountered an IRA (India Red Ale) from Eugene’s Ninkasi.  Base Camp brewer Austin Kneen readily allowed that some customers get ’em, some don’t, and added that they don’t necessarily align with judgeable styles either. But they seem to be good shorthand to reflect experimental bias there, he figures.

Two beverage analysts lowered expectations for Boston Beer’s SAM stock, ahead of co reporting second quarter results this week. Susquehanna’s Pablo Zuanic pulled back SAM price target from $245 to $200 this morning on expectation that Boston “will likely cut volume growth guidance.” With continued deceleration of retail trends across the board, “a ‘new normal’ growth pace of low-mid single digits” can be expected, Pablo wrote. Then this afternoon, Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs lowered price target from $240 to $220, seeing “risk to SAM’s full year guidance.” She expects second quarter depletions will “come in at 8%,” and “moderate further to 7%-7.5% for the back half.”

Each analyst used different set of retail data to conclude that Boston’s slowing considerably this year. “The deceleration is significant, and consistent,” Pablo notes, looking at 2% volume growth for total SAM biz for 4 wks thru July 5 in IRI, following 4% growth thru June 7 and +7% thru 5/10 (note that cut of IRI data we report shows different time periods and slightly faster growth rates). Forecasting 15-20% growth for Angry Orchard, about 35% of total Boston portfolio, Pablo says, with the remainder up “low single digits at best, then the ‘normal’ growth algorithm for SAM is more around mid-single digits (4-6%).” That dips into low-singles “if the cider category has reached a ceiling in the US,” Pablo writes.

At same time, “recent data points accelerated sales decline for SAM’s beer portfolio” and “cider and tea growth also moderating,” Judy noted in her report. Analysis of SAM growth in Nielsen all-outlet shows very clear deceleration in both overall trend and contributions of each piece of Boston portfolio, including 5% decline for Sam Adams beer brands in latest batch thru July 11. Indeed, “SAM beer will likely be a headwind to overall depletions growth,” Judy wrote. She too sees “moderating cider category growth as a concern as further distribution gains slow.” Boston’s new brands in 2015 are tracking at “about half the size of the Rebel IPA launch in 2014,” according to Judy, adding that Coney Island Hard Root Beer launch next month is “intriguing.” Hard root beer “does not have to be large relative to beer to be a potential driver for SAM longer-term,” she concludes, noting that “cider is still only 1.5% of beer, while regular root beers are ~3% of total carbonated soft drinks.”

Over the weekend and leading into today, several clips have popped up on the wires that focus on different aspects of craft beer at the city and state levels, primarily focused in south/southeast region; heretofore the most underdeveloped craft beer region in US, tho more n’ more signs pointing to fast growth. 

17 Breweries & 20 “in the Works” in Charlotte, NC; NoDa Expects 15K Bbls This Yr  Charlotte, NC’s craft beer scene has developed far slower than acclaimed Asheville, NC scene, yet just in last six years 17 breweries have opened and 20 more are “in various stages of pre-opening,” reported Fortune mag.  Olde Mecklenburg Brewery, the first to open shop in Charlotte six years ago, specifically zeroed in on Charlotte, NC because “it was the biggest city in the country without a brewery” at the time, paper notes.  Indeed, “Charlotte was like Washington DC for a long time,” a “buttoned up” and “transient city” that “didn’t have a lot of locals,” said director of sales for Olde Mecklenburg, Ryan Self.  Nowadays the “rise of creative hot-zones,” NoDa and South End arts districts has “helped open the city up to brewers.”  Olde Mecklenburg grew 45% to 14,500 bbls last yr and is poised to become regional brewer in 2015. 

Meanwhile, another up ‘n’ coming brewer in the area, NoDa Brewing, “viewed by many as Charlotte’s best brewery,” grew more than double (+127%) in 2014 to 9,100 bbls according to BA, is “currently building a 32,000 square foot second brewing facility” and “expects to produce” 15K bbls this yr.  And its focus is still almost entirely on Charlotte area.  “We won’t be able to go into Raleigh; we won’t be able to go into the Triad,” and “we will not be able to expand our presence into South Carolina” yet, NoDa co-founder Suzie Ford told paper.  “We’re currently on an account freeze” so “it makes sense to take care of the businesses here first, because we are a Charlotte brewery,” she explained.

What Does it Take for Craft Brewers to Profit (or to Start-Up) in Alabama? Nationally?  After seven years of operating, Ala’s Back Forty Beer Co has “finally gotten to the point, hopefully, this year, where we’ll show a consistent break-even point,” founder and president of Back Forty and president of Ala Brewers Guild, Jason Wilson told Birmingham News.  Back Forty grew 31% to 8,400 bbls according to BA stats, and expects co to reach 10-15K bbls in next year or so. Yet Back Forty has invested $2 mil in equipment and “about” $1 mil in real estate over past 6 yrs, he told paper, acknowledging that “we have a very aggressive growth pattern” and “very aggressive strategy about expansion.” Back Forty currently distributes to 5 states, exports to Canada, and plans to export to “Japan, Brazil and South Korea by the end of the year.”

“The truth is I don’t think a lot of us are profitable at the end of the day,” he said of Ala brewers in general. “But because we’re growing so quickly you’re able to continue to reinvest back into the business and increase your cash flows as you attempt to reach that point of profitability.”  Key question is: would investors “rather have a $100 check every year or a $10,000 check in 10 years?” chimed managing partner at Ala’s Fairhope Brewing, Brian Kane.  “They tend to favor the latter approach,” he thought.  All in, 31 cos are now members of Ala Brewers Guild.  Last yr Ala craft production grew 21% to 39,452 bbls according to Brewers Assn.  

Tho Jason believes most Ala craft brewers are profitable, “vast majority of breweries are profitable simply by the opening and closing statistics,” BA chief economist, Bart Watson told paper.  Depending on business model, start-up costs can be anywhere from “low end” of $350-600K to “more than $1.5 million” Jason estimated.  That’s similar to Bart’s estimated average start-up cost around $750K, tho “the range in business models is pretty extreme.”  Of course, start-up cost can be much lower if a brewer is only selling on-site and/or only in their home mkt, but most cos “planning on moving beyond” that will likely need “about a half a million dollars as start-up investment,” Bart added. 

Post “Beer Jobs” Bill, Ga Brewers Findin’ Ways to Stretch Ability to Sell Packaged Beer On-Site  After “Beer Jobs” bill in Georgia passed that allows brewers to sell tours that come with "souvenir" beer, several Ga brewers are finding new ways to use law to their advantage, reported Atlanta Magazine.  Some brewers, such as Wild Heaven Craft Beers and Monday Night Brewing, are “stretching” the definition of a “tour” by “eliminating the traditional guided tour in favor of simple signs or posters that constitute a ‘self-guided tour,’” breweries plan to “use this system to release special, limited, and otherwise non-distributed beer directly to the consumer. Three Taverns have simply increased its hours for its brewery.  “Other Atlanta-area breweries will use the conditions of the law to host new types of events in their facilities that were previously impossible.”  Particularly, SweetWater now plans to “regularly” host bottle release events “in conjunction with new releases.”  And ultimately “you’ll have new breweries popping up in cities like Newnan, Jonesboro, or Alpharetta, where it might not have been possible to run a brewery without direct sales,” thought Ale Yeah! owner Eddie Holley.  Indeed, “there are a lot of benefits in the new law, and plenty of awkwardness in it as well,” said Wild Heaven founder Nick Purdy.  

Then too, “Atlanta’s food truck community has received a direct boon in the law passage, as they are now allowed to partner with breweries directly, parking their trucks on or near the brewery grounds,” paper noted.  One Tex’s Tacos truck has “already made connections with Eventide, Orpheus, Wild Heaven and maybe even SweetWater,” owner Jeff Latham said.

AR’s Ozark Beer Co Expandin’ to 5K Bbl/Yr Cap; 20 Microbrewery Permits & 8 Brewpub Permits Issued Statewide  Over in Arkansas, Ozark Beer Co also plannin’ to expand capacity 50% to 5K bbls/yr, reported Associated Press.  Similar to Charlotte’s NoDa Brewing, Ozark’s expansion is “simply to keep up with the needs of Ozark Beer’s 100-plus commercial accounts, primarily local restaurants and bars,” co-owner Lacie Bray told Associated Press.  Currently Ozark is in Washington and Benton counties in Northwest Ark, tho plans to “eventually” add other parts of the state.  Statewide there’re currently “20 small brewery permits” and “eight microbrewery restaurant permits,” paper noted.  Ark was 48th in in-state craft production (+41% to 14,461 referencing BA stats), tho recent new law that upped brewpub and microbrewery production caps should continue to give legs to growin’ craft scene. 

Total BA-defined craft volume, including Yuengling, hit 12.2 mil bbls, up 16%, estimates Brewers Assn economist Bart Watson. That’s a coupla points below 18% craft gain reported for full- and half-year 2014. A drag on the trend: neither Yuengling nor Boston Beer’s beer biz anywhere near +16% this year. Together, the two co’s were about a quarter of BA-defined craft volume in 2014. Assuming their combined volume so far flattish to up low single-digits in 2015, means remainder of craft biz up very close to 20%. That too would be slight slowdown from +21% gain for remainder of craft (ex-Boston, Yuengling) in 2014. But note that slower trend on bigger base for total BA craft volume meant identical volume gain of 1.6 mil bbls thru first half of both 2014 and 2015. So this year, more of that volume gain coming from bigger number of smaller companies.

To that end: BA counted another 699 craft breweries that opened their doors since mid-2014 to a total of 3,739. That’s over 1.9 breweries opening per day, twice the rate reported mid-yr in 2012 and almost 5X the opening rate between mid-2010 and mid-2011. Since then, microbreweries (production breweries under 15,000 bbls) represented 70-75% of annual brewery openings. Recall that for full-year 2014, micros grew volume 33% and accounted for less than 15% of total craft volume but almost 25% of volume growth. Acceleration of openings and continued expansion announcements from brewers this size suggest that growth of these small players has barely slowed, if it hasn’t accelerated. Lotsa movement underneath these aggregate numbers, natch. Lookout for more.

“Opportunities abound” for craft, Danny concluded, as more and more consumers seek “better quality” and “more variety.”  But no oppy more unrealized than convenience channel.  However, only “some” craft cos will be able to capitalize, stated VP, Bev Alc Practice Danelle Kosmal.  Indeed, limited space, and “different demographics and shopping needs” in c-store puts some limitations for craft in c-stores.  So in meantime, focus should be on: “singles and trial opportunities” which have done well in c-stores previously; ability to “create a craft destination in a warm space” to avoid “fighting for that [limited] cold space”; and be sure to “prioritize” in “right c-store locations.”  Craft and domestic specialty brands combined only have 5% of beer $$ in c-stores compared to 20% in grocery and “even higher” in Liquor channel for latest 52 wks in Nielsen data, Danelle noted. 

Another oppy is educating craft consumers on “freshness,” “quality” and “taste” capabilities from canned packages, highlighted Client Director, CINA Consumer Insights North America, Matt Maimone.  Compared to 47-56% of respondents who said they’d purchase craft in bottles because of freshness, quality and taste, only 3-4% said they would consider buying craft beer in a can for those reasons.  Also, gotta note more craft drinkers said they prefer can for “convenience.”  And craft cans have increasingly become source of growth for craft brewers, Matt noted. 

Separately, beer is always trying to figure out different ways to engage multicultural consumers and women, and tho that was far from the focus of this particular survey, a few interesting tidbits came to light.  For instance, while 61% of respondents said they purchase more of a craft brewers’ products after visiting the brewery, African Americans (74%) and Hispanics (69%) were even more likely to do so, survey found.  Then too, Hispanics were more likely than avg to drink craft beer “at home” at a “friend’s house” or at a sporting event.  Lookin’ at food pairings with craft beer, a higher % of Hispanics and females were “very or somewhat likely” to pair craft beer with salty snacks (i.e chips and dip, crackers and cheese) than average.  Females age 35-44 and African Americans were more likely to drink craft beer with a “quick meal at home.”  A much higher % female millennials compared to males/male millennials said they drink more craft beer with food than they did a couple years ago (61% vs 43%).  And study found that 90% of female millennials think of price when purchasing craft beer compared to 71% of total surveyed.