Craft segment got off to a solid start in Jan scans, as $$ grew 5%, volume +4% YTD thru Jan 27 in IRI multi-outlet + convenience data. That’s more than 2.5 pts better than 52-wk trends, even as craft going against tuffer comps vs this time last year when $$ grew 6%, volume +4% for 4 wks thru Jan 28, 2018. Yet total beer sales are outpacing craft. Beer $$ grew 6%, fueled by outsized growth from imports (+14%), superpremiums (+21%) and FMBs (+24%). So craft actually lost 0.2 share of beer $$ to 11.7 share for first 4 wks of 2019. Import, superpremium and FMB segments each gained 1 share of beer $$ or better, led by brands from Constellation (+22%), Mike’s Hard Lemonade Co (+48%) and Boston Beer (+22%). Editor’s note: timing of NYE holiday (among other factors) seems to have given sizable boost to entire beer category in Jan. Virtually every segment grew $$ at least slightly, including domestic premium (+0.1%) and sub-premium (+0.7%). Growth is growth, any way you can get it. But beer category has been far from this picture of health for a long time. Will Jan trends stick around?

Good Jans for Several Top Craft Cos; Sierra, New Belgium, Gambrinus, Deschutes Rebounds

Several top craft cos had strong Jan in scans, including several reversing declines from prior year. Indeed, New Belgium and Gambrinus each grew 9% YTD thru Jan 27 in IRI MULC, and Deschutes eked out 0.6% gain on $$ following tuff declines for each in 2018. Sierra $$ up 5% even as seasonal took double-digit decline amid transition of Hop Bullet to year-round and launch of new Brut IPA. Founders (+29%), Elysian (+31%), CANarchy (+34%) and Firestone (+28%) had strongest trends among all top craft cos. Both Stone and Artisanal Brewing Ventures (ABV) grew 10%. And Dogfish volume grew high singles, tho $$ up just 1.5%, as avg price dipped to $50.13/case (still highest among top craft – co’s natl IRI numbers are a bit wonky, and revs up more than IRI suggests, according to Dogfish).

Tuff Start for CBA and Goose Two top craft cos cos notably declined in Jan scans. Craft Brew Alliance $$ dropped 11%, volume -18% in IRI YTD thru Jan 27. Lead brand Kona Big Wave had $5/case rise in avg prices for period, as $$ dipped 1%, volume dropped 13%. Indeed, Big Wave is cycling big promo in Publix last Jan, director of corporate communication Jenny McLean told CBN. Then too, AB acquired craft collectively growing strong in scans, yet Goose Island $$ sales declined 9%, volume down 3% YTD. Lead brand Goose IPA declined 5% by $$, tho volume grew 2%.

New Top-30 Brands: BM Mango Wheat in MULC; NBB Haze in Food; Rhinegeist Truth and Terrapin Hopsecutioner in C-Stores A handful of brands made new appearances in top-30 IRI craft brand lists. Blue Moon Mango Wheat grew 44%, jumping to 29th best-selling craft brand by $$ (as defined by IRI) in IRI MULC YTD thru Jan 27. Recall, it was initially launched last year as spring seasonal before MC opted to move it to year-round. Bell’s Hopslam hopped outta nowhere to #22 craft brand by $$ sold in MULC (at $68.78/case). Hopslam double IPA only available for limited time early in year, and $$ down 11% YTD. New Belgium Voodoo Juicy Haze IPA still tripling sales in IRI foodstores thru Jan, jumping to #28 craft brand sold in grocery channel. And in c-stores, Rhinegeist Truth IPA (+32%), MC’s Terrapin Hopsecutioner IPA (+8%) and Blue Moon Mango Wheat (+77.5%) became #28 thru #30 brands.

New Belgium “reached an agreement” with Steam Whistle Brewing to have flagship Fat Tire brewed, marketed and distributed “across Canada” out of Steam Whistle’s Etobicoke facility, cos announced. NBB already available in BC and Alberta provinces, but “Steam Whistle will now be our sole distributor across Canada,” NBB communications director Bryan Simpson told CBN. NBB will launch Ontario in Apr and plans to add Quebec in 2020, he added.

Even with excess capacity on hand, NBB opted to partner with Steam Whistle for Fat Tire production and distribution primarily for “freshness and savings on carbon and shipping,” Bryan shared. “We estimate we will eliminate one full week of shipping by producing on the ground in Canada which means less time on a truck, fewer shipping miles, and no return cooperage.” Then too, exports currently make up less than 1% of NBB’s volume, “but we see growth opportunity especially just across the border and even more so now that we can produce there,” said Bryan. There’s “lots of blue sky” and “a great advantage having the team at Steam Whistle who inherently understand the Canadian market and beer culture far better than we do.”

Co spent “over two years meeting with potential partners throughout Canada,” before landing with Steam Whistle, said NBB’s east coast and Canada sales director Rich Rush in released statement. Both cos talk about company cultures matching very well together, “a natural partnership.” Fat Tire is coming off tuff year of double-digit decline in the US. Perhaps Canada can help mitigate recent declines as co aims to shore up trends nationally as well.

Correction: The gremlins got us, as our founder Jerry Steinman liked to say. We spelled Sufferfest founder Caitlin Landesberg’s first name incorrectly in our last issue. Sorry, Caitlin!

After AB’s João Paulo Falcão Vieira resigned from CBA’s board end of last yr (see Jan 7 issue), AB appointed Matthew E Gilbertson to take his place, according to SEC filing. Recall, AB can appoint up to two individuals to serve on CBA’s board. Matthew “has served in multiple senior financial and strategic management roles within Anheuser Busch InBev…since joining ABI in 2014,” including as Treasurer and VP for ABI’s North American Zone since June 2017. Prior to that, he spent 10 yrs “as an investment banker with the business valuation firm Duff & Phelps, LLC.” Matthew “does not qualify as an ‘independent director,’” and “accordingly” is not expected to “serve as a voting member of any Board committee, but may attend meetings…as a non-voting observer.”

Cigar City continues its fast paced expansion thruout the country, already adding 5 new mkts in early 2019. Recall, since Cigar City joined CANarchy platform backed by Fireman Capital in Mar 2016, co rapidly expanded from just 6 states to 23 states plus Puerto Rico, Sweden, Finland, Norway, France and UK by end of 2018. Cigar City subsequently more than doubled volume to over 140K bbls in 2 yrs. And right off the bat in 2019, co added OH in Jan, NorCal, VT, NH and ME in Feb. It partnered with variety of distribs in OH, including Superior Bev, NWO Bev, Bonbright Dist and Stagnaro Dist. Co stuck with Sheehan Family Cos thruout northern New England, and will “expand its presence in Massachusetts,” as well, per release. Even as Cigar City rapidly expanding distribution, it’s maintained strong growth in home state FL too. Co was among top volume gainers thruout craft in 2018 (see above) and clearly lookin’ to keep up the pace this year.

Cannabiniers, maker of Two Roots non-alc beers infused with THC and more, is stepping on the gas pedal in 2019, starting with key exec hire comin’ from big liquor and intent to acquire several craft breweries across the country. Cannabiniers executed letters of intent (LOIs) to acquire 3 brewers “nationally” that total 200K bbls of capacity, CEO Michael Hayford told CBN (Editor’s note: earlier release incorrectly stated that co had 3 LOIs in San Diego area alone). Those deals expected to close by end of Q1. Another 2 deals expected by later this summer would put co over 400K bbls of annual capacity. So Cannabiniers seemingly well on its way to goal of planned 500K bbls/yr of capacity “under contract or acquisition” by 2020. Woah.

Then too, Victor Jerez, former Global Director of Group Strategy and M&A for Pernod Ricard and more recently Global Director of Business Development for William Grant and Sons, has joined Cannabiniers as COO and prexy, co announced. Recall, Cannabiniers previously appointed former PepsiCo East prexy, Michael Lorelli, to its board of directors and hired its brewmaster from Green Flash. “This is the next step in a series of moves to deepen the Company’s leadership, management, governance, and global insight,” co stated.

“Multi-Pronged Approach” to Expansion Thru M&A Victor’s experience as an alc bev dealmaker will further solidify co’s aggressive “first-mover” approach. Two Roots already has 2K bbls of its own capacity and strategic brewing agreement that can support up to 50K bbls/yr (~20 mil production units) last yr, before factoring in big acquisition plans. Indeed, co has a “deep deal pipeline” with “an array” of deals/ partnerships addressing “different aspects up and down the value chain,” Victor acknowledged to CBN separately. Production is big factor, natch. And geography “certainly” factors in as co looks to expand, he added. “From an operational aspect” having presence in CA and NV is “super attractive.” And M&A and further development will be “focused on driving in key markets across the US” with “dense populations,” where cannabis mkts are “legal or soon to be legal.” Gotta note, Cascadia Capital’s Townsend Ziebold stated that cannabis cos could acquire sizable craft brewer(s) during BBD Summit in San Diego last wk. Cannabiniers/ Two Roots is prime example.

“Not a Start Up”: Revs “Well Into” $10s of Mils; 150 Employees; “Fast Mover” Approach Despite Cannabiniers’ relatively young existence, this is “not a start up,” Victor told CBN. Cannabiniers revenues are “well into the tens of millions,” across its entire platform. Victor left the liquor world after “arguing” (to no avail) that both of his former cos “should be looking at cannabis” and the “convergence” with beverages. He then looked at several cannabis cos since leaving William Grant and Sons end of Aug and ultimately was drawn to Cannabiniers for its “fast mover” and “pragmatic” approach, he said. Big aspect of his role will be to help build out “multi-state presence” with Two Roots and more, Victor shared. Two Roots operated at capacity, all in NV across just 10 stores (including its own store, ReLeaf), typically averaging $8 plus per 10oz unit. And co just expanded to CA.

Big Beer’s Cannabis Influx “Further Substantiates” and Expedites Two Roots Biz Plan Influx of big beer cos into cannabis space “further substantiates Cannabiniers’ business strategy, and market position,” co believes. There’s still “a window of opportunity” for Two Roots that’s driving Cannabiniers to “significantly invest in the company’s leadership in support of their ten state direct expansion and the outlook of an additional expansion through a strategic-multi-state operator ‘MSO’ partnership resulting in a twenty-state roll out, access to 150+ million US residents and the largest US adult and cannabis beverage company in the US,” per release. Ambitious is an understatement to describe these folks. Cannabiniers expects “accelerated growth on a national scale” in 2019, commented Exec Vice President of Eastern Operations, Timothy Walters. And co forecasts that cannabis-infused beverages could become $25-bil retail mkt in US over the next 10 yrs.

Two Roots Has Top-3 Infused Bevs Sold in NV; Top-2 SKUs at Own Dispensary; 10% of Items Sold While infused bevs remain a small portion of total cannabis sales in US, Two Roots quickly captured ample mkt share of bevs in NV and performing exceptionally well in co’s own dispensary in Las Vegas, CEO Michael Hayford shared with CBN separately. Two Roots snagged 88% of all infused beverages sold in NV for month of Jan 2019, including 5mg infused Lager, IPA, and Wheat Ale as top-3 brands, he noted, citing Headset data. Then too, 10% of all items sold (5% of total revs) at co’s dispensary, ReLeaf, are Two Roots products over last 90 days, including Lager and IPA as top-2 SKUs by volume, Stout and Wheat as #9 and #13 out of 400 plus items sold.  And keep in mind, Cannabiniers also working on developing Just Society infused teas, Brewbudz infused coffee (in a single-serve brew pod), cocktail mixers, CBD creams, and more.

Craft started to settle into a new normal in 2018, growing about 4%, 1 mil bbls, we estimate. That’s brighter than the segment looked in off-premise retail scans and perhaps faster than many in the industry see. But as many larger players struggle or slow and sales in traditional channels sputter, the long tail gets longer. And fatter. Some of the most challenged US craft companies are undoubtedly under 100K bbls. But collectively, brewers that shipped less than 100K bbls in 2018 barely slowed, contributed all of craft growth last year and finally grew to over half of total segment volume, we estimate.

It’s been a long time comin’. Smaller brewers drove craft gains in recent years, getting over half of craft’s total volume growth, each of the last 4 years. They got all of the segment’s growth and then some in both 2017 and 2018. And as always, these numbers are subject to change, especially as TTB catches up and potentially revises official figures for US beer shipments. If, after all the paperwork is filed and numbers crunched, the US beer biz looks even slightly better than current estimates suggest, look to just one place (or is it thousands of tiny places?) responsible for that brighter outlook: the smallest US brewers. Direct sales at tasting rooms obviously drove much of this growth, a key reason why measuring it remains challenging.

That said, direct sales of beer also remain far less developed than that of wine. Direct shipments account for as much as 10% of off-premise direct wine sales in the US, +9% to 6.3 mil cases last yr, which doesn’t even include wine bought and carried away from wineries by consumers. Direct wine shipments are so developed they get their own report, the 2019 Direct-to-Consumer Wine Shipping Report from Ship Compliant, the source of those stats. Taproom sales likely 11-12 share of craft volume, more like just 1.5 share of US beer biz.

39 Brewers Over 100K Bbls, Most Flat Or Down, Collectively Off Slightly  Almost half of the 39 craft players that shipped 100K bbls or more in 2018 declined, the below table shows. A half dozen or so finished the year essentially flat, we estimate. That’s the story for these brewers collectively too. As a group, shipments by the largest craft players ended 2018 off less than a half-percent compared to 2017 volume. That trend is surprisingly just a skosh better than we reported this time last yr. But it’s padded significantly by big-time growth of 4 players that crossed 100K bbls for first time last yr (not including 21st Amendment, which is revising its shipments totals downward for last many years, recall; see Feb 1 issue). Two AB-owned brewers plus Cigar City and Rhinegeist each grew by leaps and bounds last yr, collectively gained over 200K bbls, we estimate. Half of that likely from AB’s Golden Road and Karbach.

[table attached separately]

Note: Table above shows mostly self-reported 2018 shipments totals for craft brewers over 100K bbls. Starred brewers/italicized shipments figures indicate CBN estimates. All numbers subject to revision.

8 Double-Digit Gainers Get Most of Top Craft Growth, 7 Did Deals  Note too that those 4 new players mentioned above represent half of the 8 brewers over 100K bbls that grew by double digits last year. The other 4 include another AB brand, Elysian, 21A and the two fastest-growing top-10 craft players, Founders and Firestone Walker. Those two growth stories told and retold often, but hard to understate their rise in the craft ranks. Firestone grew to 3X what it was just 5 yrs ago, gained a full share of craft volume. Founders now 5X its 2013 shipments, gained 1.5 share in that time, same as Lagunitas. Collectively, this handful of 8 double-digit gainers grew by almost 400K bbls on their own. That’s about 40% of total craft gain, as another way to slice and dice this data. Also worth mentioning that just one of these 8, Rhinegeist, has not completed some kind of transaction, which afforded each of the other 7 additional capital, capacity, sales & marketing expertise or all of the above. Have we mentioned lately that, after the last few years of craft M&A, facing the current marketplace alone feels even more challenging?

Steepest Declines Near the Top, Slipping Back to 2015, ’14, ’13, ’12… ’07 Volumes  While some craft players quickly climb the ranks, a number of longtime players lost their footing some in 2018. Time will tell if these slides continue or if they turn out to be brief stumbles. But for top US craft player, Boston Beer, its beer volume declined for 4th straight yr, down almost 8%, we estimate, to about 1.8 mil bbls. That’s somewhere between the amount of beer the company shipped in 2007 and 2008. In those years, Sam Adams had over 20 share of craft volume. The co lost almost 1 full share last yr alone to under 7.

Recall, Sierra Nevada eked out modest growth last yr. Lagunitas grew mid-singles overall, surpassing 1 mil bbls, but all of that growth came from exports. New Belgium shipments declined 11%, over 100K bbls, finished 2018 in between where it was in 2013 and 2014. NBB’s trends have varied considerably in that time, from up double digits in 2014 to down double digits last yr. In the Gambrinus family, the Shiner brands (or Spoetzl Brewery) declined for 3rd straight yr, but only by 1.3%, a slower rate than last 2 yrs. At 526K bbls in 2018, that’s almost exactly what Shiner shipped in 2012. Deschutes slipped high single-digits. Like for so many, better trends near home didn’t outweigh challenges from farther afield. It’s now the only brewer that shipped 300-399K bbls, as Ballast Point declined by almost 13% to about 275K bbls, putting it about even with Dogfish Head. That’s less than Ballast shipped in 2015, the year Constellation bought it at a $1-bil valuation. The co more than doubled that year then peaked in 2016 before losing about a quarter of its volume, almost 100K bbls, over the last 2 years.

Picture of Craft Portfolios and Acquired Brewers Not All Rosy  Ballast Point’s performance over the last couple of years provides the most clear evidence that craft brands acquired by larger brewers and private equity-backed platforms have not universally thrived. Many remain the fastest growers in craft (see above about double-digit gainers). But most craft portfolios feature at least one declining brand these days. That includes the largest player in the largest portfolio: AB’s Goose Island, which we estimate declined for a second year in a row. While the fast-moving CANarchy platform has grown as a group, up 7% to 421K bbls last yr (putting it between Firestone Walker and Stone), its first member, Oskar Blues, remains challenged, while Cigar City’s star keeps rising. That’s indicative of the group as a whole, with some strong growers and other softer trends.

The ABV platform declined low single-digits as a whole last yr, suggesting both Victory and Southern Tier were flat to down a bit. All signs suggest that Abita, Anchor and Full Sail, all longtime craft leaders that struck different deals over the last few years, continue to struggle. And though the Duvel Moortgat USA portfolio is a horse of a very different color, Boulevard put up the toughest trend of any brewer in our table.

Indie, Employee-Owned Brewers Also a Mixed Bag; Low-Singles a Win These Days  If you haven’t heard the new refrain, talk to a top craft brewer growing low single-digits: flat to up a little is the new double-digit gain. It feels like a win. That’s the realm where Bell’s, Stone, New Glarus and Troegs each finished 2018, comprising strong gains in parts of their brand lineups or distribution footprints, but losses elsewhere. For companies like FX Matt and Harpoon, losses outweighed the gains. Brewers like Summit outperformed the average a touch, while Alaskan, Great Lakes and Shipyard lost a little ground. We estimate a number of others finished flattish.

Close Calls and All Others, Doubled in 5 Yrs, 70% of Craft’s 9.7-Mil-Bbl Gain  That brings us back to the tail. Just below this list of 39 brewers, a handful of others finished 2018 just below 100K bbls and their trends track the above (perhaps underscoring the arbitrariness of our 100K-bbl cut-off). Allagash grew slightly to about 96K bbls, Surly a bit more to 95K bbls (as we wrote last month). Ninkasi finished about flat, while Narragansett slipped slightly, -3%. Like other craft brands with close to 30 or more years on them, Rogue also declined last yr, by high single-digits, below 90K bbls.

Other small players assuredly faced even tougher headwinds. In fact, some of the most challenged craft companies, those undercapitalized or most likely to feel the weight of short-term pressures, can be found in this vast, vast group. But many of the thousands of other small US craft brewers felt (and continue to feel) the wind at their backs. The total craft segment gained almost 10 mil bbls over the last 5 years, up about 9.7 mil bbls, 60% since 2013. Brewers below 100K bbls last yr got 70% of that gain. As the group ballooned and thousands of breweries opened, its collective volume doubled in that time to 13.3 mil bbls. The group went from less than 40 share to over 50, begging the question: how much of the craft biz can small players become?

Dig Deeper into This Data  Looking for more info and insights into our top craft player data, including seeing a full 10-yr series of volume, trend and share figures for craft brewers over 100K bbls? Sign up for our Craft Update, 2019 webinar series, coming in just 3 weeks. Further analysis of top players is just one piece of this exclusive presentation and special report. Find all the info on beerinsights.com and register today.

Craft started to settle into a new normal in 2018, growing about 4%, 1 mil bbls, we estimate. That’s brighter than the segment looked in off-premise retail scans and perhaps faster than many in the industry see. But as many larger players struggle or slow and sales in traditional channels sputter, the long tail gets longer. And fatter. Some of the most challenged US craft companies are undoubtedly under 100K bbls. But collectively, brewers that shipped less than 100K bbls in 2018 barely slowed, contributed all of craft growth last year and finally grew to over half of total segment volume, we estimate.

It’s been a long time comin’. Smaller brewers drove craft gains in recent years, getting over half of craft’s total volume growth, each of the last 4 years. They got all of the segment’s growth and then some in both 2017 and 2018. And as always, these numbers are subject to change, especially as TTB catches up and potentially revises official figures for US beer shipments. If, after all the paperwork is filed and numbers crunched, the US beer biz looks even slightly better than current estimates suggest, look to just one place (or is it thousands of tiny places?) responsible for that brighter outlook: the smallest US brewers. Direct sales at tasting rooms obviously drove much of this growth, a key reason why measuring it remains challenging.

That said, direct sales of beer also remain far less developed than that of wine. Direct shipments account for as much as 10% of off-premise direct wine sales in the US, +9% to 6.3 mil cases last yr, which doesn’t even include wine bought and carried away from wineries by consumers. Direct wine shipments are so developed they get their own report, the 2019 Direct-to-Consumer Wine Shipping Report from Ship Compliant, the source of those stats. Taproom sales likely 11-12 share of craft volume, more like just 1.5 share of US beer biz.

39 Brewers Over 100K Bbls, Most Flat Or Down, Collectively Off Slightly  Almost half of the 39 craft players that shipped 100K bbls or more in 2018 declined, the below table shows. A half dozen or so finished the year essentially flat, we estimate. That’s the story for these brewers collectively too. As a group, shipments by the largest craft players ended 2018 off less than a half-percent compared to 2017 volume. That trend is surprisingly just a skosh better than we reported this time last yr. But it’s padded significantly by big-time growth of 4 players that crossed 100K bbls for first time last yr (not including 21st Amendment, which is revising its shipments totals downward for last many years, recall; see Feb 1 issue). Two AB-owned brewers plus Cigar City and Rhinegeist each grew by leaps and bounds last yr, collectively gained over 200K bbls, we estimate. Half of that likely from AB’s Golden Road and Karbach.

[table attached separately]

Note: Table above shows mostly self-reported 2018 shipments totals for craft brewers over 100K bbls. Starred brewers/italicized shipments figures indicate CBN estimates. All numbers subject to revision.

8 Double-Digit Gainers Get Most of Top Craft Growth, 7 Did Deals  Note too that those 4 new players mentioned above represent half of the 8 brewers over 100K bbls that grew by double digits last year. The other 4 include another AB brand, Elysian, 21A and the two fastest-growing top-10 craft players, Founders and Firestone Walker. Those two growth stories told and retold often, but hard to understate their rise in the craft ranks. Firestone grew to 3X what it was just 5 yrs ago, gained a full share of craft volume. Founders now 5X its 2013 shipments, gained 1.5 share in that time, same as Lagunitas. Collectively, this handful of 8 double-digit gainers grew by almost 400K bbls on their own. That’s about 40% of total craft gain, as another way to slice and dice this data. Also worth mentioning that just one of these 8, Rhinegeist, has not completed some kind of transaction, which afforded each of the other 7 additional capital, capacity, sales & marketing expertise or all of the above. Have we mentioned lately that, after the last few years of craft M&A, facing the current marketplace alone feels even more challenging?

Steepest Declines Near the Top, Slipping Back to 2015, ’14, ’13, ’12… ’07 Volumes  While some craft players quickly climb the ranks, a number of longtime players lost their footing some in 2018. Time will tell if these slides continue or if they turn out to be brief stumbles. But for top US craft player, Boston Beer, its beer volume declined for 4th straight yr, down almost 8%, we estimate, to about 1.8 mil bbls. That’s somewhere between the amount of beer the company shipped in 2007 and 2008. In those years, Sam Adams had over 20 share of craft volume. The co lost almost 1 full share last yr alone to under 7.

Recall, Sierra Nevada eked out modest growth last yr. Lagunitas grew mid-singles overall, surpassing 1 mil bbls, but all of that growth came from exports. New Belgium shipments declined 11%, over 100K bbls, finished 2018 in between where it was in 2013 and 2014. NBB’s trends have varied considerably in that time, from up double digits in 2014 to down double digits last yr. In the Gambrinus family, the Shiner brands (or Spoetzl Brewery) declined for 3rd straight yr, but only by 1.3%, a slower rate than last 2 yrs. At 526K bbls in 2018, that’s almost exactly what Shiner shipped in 2012. Deschutes slipped high single-digits. Like for so many, better trends near home didn’t outweigh challenges from farther afield. It’s now the only brewer that shipped 300-399K bbls, as Ballast Point declined by almost 13% to about 275K bbls, putting it about even with Dogfish Head. That’s less than Ballast shipped in 2015, the year Constellation bought it at a $1-bil valuation. The co more than doubled that year then peaked in 2016 before losing about a quarter of its volume, almost 100K bbls, over the last 2 years.

Picture of Craft Portfolios and Acquired Brewers Not All Rosy  Ballast Point’s performance over the last couple of years provides the most clear evidence that craft brands acquired by larger brewers and private equity-backed platforms have not universally thrived. Many remain the fastest growers in craft (see above about double-digit gainers). But most craft portfolios feature at least one declining brand these days. That includes the largest player in the largest portfolio: AB’s Goose Island, which we estimate declined for a second year in a row. While the fast-moving CANarchy platform has grown as a group, up 7% to 421K bbls last yr (putting it between Firestone Walker and Stone), its first member, Oskar Blues, remains challenged, while Cigar City’s star keeps rising. That’s indicative of the group as a whole, with some strong growers and other softer trends.

The ABV platform declined low single-digits as a whole last yr, suggesting both Victory and Southern Tier were flat to down a bit. All signs suggest that Abita, Anchor and Full Sail, all longtime craft leaders that struck different deals over the last few years, continue to struggle. And though the Duvel Moortgat USA portfolio is a horse of a very different color, Boulevard put up the toughest trend of any brewer in our table.

Indie, Employee-Owned Brewers Also a Mixed Bag; Low-Singles a Win These Days  If you haven’t heard the new refrain, talk to a top craft brewer growing low single-digits: flat to up a little is the new double-digit gain. It feels like a win. That’s the realm where Bell’s, Stone, New Glarus and Troegs each finished 2018, comprising strong gains in parts of their brand lineups or distribution footprints, but losses elsewhere. For companies like FX Matt and Harpoon, losses outweighed the gains. Brewers like Summit outperformed the average a touch, while Alaskan, Great Lakes and Shipyard lost a little ground. We estimate a number of others finished flattish.

Close Calls and All Others, Doubled in 5 Yrs, 70% of Craft’s 9.7-Mil-Bbl Gain  That brings us back to the tail. Just below this list of 39 brewers, a handful of others finished 2018 just below 100K bbls and their trends track the above (perhaps underscoring the arbitrariness of our 100K-bbl cut-off). Allagash grew slightly to about 96K bbls, Surly a bit more to 95K bbls (as we wrote last month). Ninkasi finished about flat, while Narragansett slipped slightly, -3%. Like other craft brands with close to 30 or more years on them, Rogue also declined last yr, by high single-digits, below 90K bbls.

Other small players assuredly faced even tougher headwinds. In fact, some of the most challenged craft companies, those undercapitalized or most likely to feel the weight of short-term pressures, can be found in this vast, vast group. But many of the thousands of other small US craft brewers felt (and continue to feel) the wind at their backs. The total craft segment gained almost 10 mil bbls over the last 5 years, up about 9.7 mil bbls, 60% since 2013. Brewers below 100K bbls last yr got 70% of that gain. As the group ballooned and thousands of breweries opened, its collective volume doubled in that time to 13.3 mil bbls. The group went from less than 40 share to over 50, begging the question: how much of the craft biz can small players become?

Dig Deeper into This Data  Looking for more info and insights into our top craft player data, including seeing a full 10-yr series of volume, trend and share figures for craft brewers over 100K bbls? Sign up for our Craft Update, 2019 webinar series, coming in just 3 weeks. Further analysis of top players is just one piece of this exclusive presentation and special report. Find all the info on beerinsights.com and register today.

The small, 7-bbl system that Ipswich will gain access to for more specialty brands after “strategic partnership” it struck with Newburyport Brewing is not at the latter’s “existing brewery,” as we wrote last issue. The system referred to by the co’s in joint announcement will be at Newburyport’s in-the-works brewery. The relationship reaches beyond production to sales, marketing and other biz functions as well.

RateBeer founder Joe Tucker chose morning after a Super Bowl that brought new attention to AB’s competitive side, to share news that ABI’s ZX Ventures division bought the rest of his co. Recall, RateBeer announced minority stake taken by ZX in early June of 2017, hot on the tails of AB’s acquisition of Wicked Weed, setting off new round of hand-wringing about the world’s largest brewer and its moves in and around craft. That minority stake, taken many months before announcement, helped RateBeer “make improvements to infrastructure, put out an in-house mobile app and modernize key pages that as the only full-time employee with help from some amazing admins and volunteer coders, I was never able to tackle,” Joe wrote. Modernization will continue after sale, he promises, and co plans to start “an affiliate marketplace in Australia,” for example. Joe stays on as “global community manager.” While the announcement of the initial stake raised the beer Twitterverse into a tizzy, today the news of the full sale isn’t quite rating with folks still stirring over AB’s Bud Light “corn syrup” ads during last night’s Big Game.

Wide array of beers and package sizes impacted by diastaticus variant of traditional brewers yeast, now being voluntarily recalled by UT’s Uinta Brewing, co announced on Friday. No consumer reports of problems ahead of recall, but tests at the brewery and 3rd party confirmed presence of what Uinta simply calls “a naturally occurring strain that is occasionally used for brewing specific styles” in letter posted to co’s website. But that strain confirmed as diastaticus to CBN by Uinta CMO Jeremy Ragonese. Recall, that’s same strain that Left Hand determined was root cause of its sizeable recall back in 2016, for which that co filed suit against yeast supplier White Labs. More quietly, many other small brewers confirmed that they too faced similar issues resulting in familiar symptoms: refermentation in packaged beer, especially when not refrigerated, creating unwanted “off flavors” and additional carbonation that could lead to package failure. Uinta pointed to same issues in note to consumers, reminding that affected beers remain safe to drink but could taste off, and that additional pressure “could cause the packaging to fail.” Again, no reports of that yet. Most of the affected beer never left Utah. Less than 10% ever hit retail shelves. Uinta still offering full refunds.

Unfortunately, issue was fairly widespread. Impacted at least 10 different Uinta beers. Co recalled 16 different packages, including 8 separate year-round brands and 1 winter seasonal. Hit core brands like Hop Nosh IPA and Detour Double IPA, plus Cutthroat pale, Golden Spike hefeweizen, 801 Pilsner and more, packaged in 6, 12, 15 & 18-pk cans, 6 and 12-pk bottles with best before days between 4/26 and 5/16/19. Full list of packages with precise best before dates for each brand available on co’s website. Uinta already working to both identify where the diastaticus came from and eliminating it from the brewery.