AB will finally jettison born-on-dating on its Bud brand in conjunction with appearance of new packaging at end of summer, it wrote distribs yesterday.  It will move to industry standard stating “Freshest Before” which AB sez is “clearer way to communicate freshness to consumers” with “more details to follow in future communications.” Distribs have been saying that for a long time.  In Vegas meeting with distribs a couple mos back, AB let it be known that it was strongly considering this change.  Seems like it could be phased in on other brands, tho this message makes no mention of it. 

Total beer volume up 0.5% for 4 weeks thru 5/10 in Nielsen all-channel data reported this morn by Goldman Sachs.  That’s a big deceleration from 5.9% gain in prior 4 weeks; both related to Easter timing, according to Goldman Sachs analyst Judy Hong.  AB volume down 0.8%, MC volume down 2.5% for 4 weeks.  For 12 weeks, AB up 0.9%, while MC down 1.2% in this data set.  Suggests there is closer to 2 points of trend separation between AB and MC in latest periods, compared to 1 last yr and in Q1 in all channels.  Both AB and MC only got a little over 1% avg price increases per case in recent periods.  Constellation slowed, but still increased volume at double-digit pace in latest period (+10.0%).  It too is only getting about 1% pricing for last 12 weeks.  While Boston Beer continued to grow sales at 9% pace overall, beer trends weaker lately.  Down 6.5% for 4 weeks and 3% for 12 weeks.  

CenCal Bev Co, an approx 3-mil case MC/Constellation distrib in (where else) Central Calif, will be split between 2 larger distribs that are contiguous to it on different sides. About 75% of its biz, over 2 mil cases, will go to DBI Bev of Northern Cal, while the rest will go to Valley Wide Bev Co in Fresno, pending supplier approval.  That’s DBI’s first purchase in some yrs, after a string of ’em in late 2000s.  Deal expected to close before July 4th.  CenCal told employees yesterday. Upon completion, DBI will reportedly sell over 28 mil cases annually, Valley Wide between 7-8 mil cases.  The 2 together will comprise almost 20% of non-AB biz in state while Reyes Bev Group over 30%. 

GuestMetrics data actually skews independent, not chain, sez vp Peter Reidhead. He points out that 65% of accounts are indy, 30% regional accounts, 5% natl accounts. 

Following C&C Group’s tuff results in US for 2d straight yr since it purchased VT Hard Cider for $305 mil (see May 13 issue), an Irish paper, Independent, went as far as to say “C&C’s foray into the US may go down in history as one of the bigger strategic errors by an Irish listed company.”  Headline: “No windfalls for C&C in an American horror story.”   Paper goes on to probe plummeting operating profit in US (-86%) this yr as well as €150m ($171 mil) write off “because of how badly the business was faring.”  Independent buys C&C narrative that “distribution problems” have been key issue, as C&C has repeatedly said.  Rather than attempting to “independently” build a US biz it “should have been done as a joint venture with a big player like Molson Coors, one with a good distribution network in place,” said source close to C&C. But if it was C&C’s lack of “clout in the house” with distribs that led to its less-than-stellar results, what about all the smaller craft cos that are going gangbusters?   It’s “not the first drinks company to run aground because of its US ambitions,” source added, referencing “the fall of rival HP Bulmers stemmed largely from its efforts to crack America,” eventually selling to Heineken.  Since Stephen Glancey was appointed ceo in 2012 (as deal was “already in motion”) “the company’s share price has stayed flat…while most of Ireland’s other largest listed companies have seen big gains on the back of the economic recovery,” paper noted.  Yet “Glancey was still upbeat about both the US and UK markets” during call last week; “he will have some difficult questions to answer at C&C’s AGM in July.”   

Less than a week after word was out that AB put its sports marketing account with Octagon in review, it has selected WME’s IMG to handle biz going forward, reported Advertising Age.  AB had handled domestic sports mktg in-house while Octagon handled global, but co “will remain” on AB roster, per report.  IMG “is the right partner to help us optimize our entire sports portfolio, develop new, innovative and disruptive activation programs,” said Lucas Herscovici, vp consumer connections.  “One goal is more of an emphasis on experiential marketing, rather than simply using sports to raise awareness for brand such as Bud Light, which are already universally recognizable,” wrote Ad Age.  Last wk, agency insiders said review was “less about sports assets and activation and more about the best ways to sell beer to millennials,” given that AB “is increasingly skeptical” about the importance they place on sports, wrote St. Louis Biz Jnl.  Recall last yr AB gave media buying duties over to WPP’s MediaCom after that was handled in-house previously by Busch Media Group. 

Key takeaway from consumer survey conducted by Morgan Stanley’s AlphaWise team in Apr 2015 on STZ portfolio: “Corona brand favorability scores significantly increased,” compared to 2014 results.  Morgan Stanley’s Dara Mohsenian “surprised” by increase, which he attributes to “strong marketing,” “halo from improved US consumer spending/sentiment,” and new can packaging.  Meanwhile, Modelo Especial brand awareness stayed flat vs 2014, yet “remains the long-term growth engine (with brand awareness still low relative to other brands with comparable size).”  AlphaWise surveyed “1,515 nationally representative adults ages 21-65 years old in the US who consume alcohol.”  

For 3d time since fall of 2013, Beer Inst has written key fed agencies advising them to revise 2015 Dietary Guidelines to drop definition of drink as 0.6 fluid oz of alcohol and to advise consumers specifically that alc content in mixed drinks varies widely and may include the “equivalent of several light beers or glasses of wine.”  This turns the “equivalency” argument made by distillers around, in BI’s latest challenge to “a drink is a drink.”  Notable in new letter: 1) Brewers Assn, NBWA and Wine Institute co-signed missive to the Dept of Health and Human Services and Dept of Agriculture; 2) BI dropped request that dietary guidelines include the “Know Your Drink” graphic BI intro’d last May to counter “a drink is a drink” (tho BI will continue to use the graphic in other materials); 3) the 4 assns really pound the notion that “alcohol content of various servings and mixtures of alcohol may vary considerably,” especially in mixed drinks in the real world.  Indeed, first few pages of letter alone sound theme of variability nearly a dozen times.  While BI made variations of these arguments twice before, the recently released Scientific Report of the Advisory Committee to the Guidelines did not advise any changes along the lines suggested by BI.  Perhaps the third time will be the charm.

“Is craft beer in a bubble,” blared Fortune headline over weekend, quoting one craft brewer, Fiddlehead’s Matt Cohen: “I think we’re nearing a crisis point” with too many inexperienced folks frequently making subpar beer. But wait a sec.  Haven’t we heard all this before? A couple of yrs back, some key craft brewers warned of a coming craft “train wreck”/falling off a 3d World bus, coming correction etc.  But growth continued at stellar pace.  And craft up in mid-teens again early this yr.  So no real evidence of that bubble so far. 

And yet there is something different this time.  Call it a “narrative shift,” as one source put it.  This Fortune piece just one of several recently that raised more questions about craft and not just about how wonderful craft beer is. Perhaps most interesting, a long Thrillist piece a few weeks ago called “Bar Fight, Why craft brewing is about to go to war with itself.”  That piece specifically rejected talk of a “bubble,” instead positing it’s “a runup to a civil war” as craft brewers will now turn on each other in crowded and competitive space.  Another piece titled: “Why Craft Beer Will Be Almost Unrecognizable by the Year 2020” was about all the deals happening in space.  Last week, on-premise data tracker GuestMetrics ceo Bill Pecoriello wondered at our Spring Conference  if craft beer approaching a “plateau” on-premise, because share gains slowed there, tho some craft cos and some craft outlets (i.e. tasting rooms) continue outsized gains.  And First Bev’s Bill Anderson said craft is having a “‘there goes the neighborhood’ moment” with influx of new owners.  All told, marked shift in tone to some recent craft coverage and statements that certainly bears watching, but too early to know what it means. 

Even before getting full benefits from launch of Palm Breeze line,  Mike’s Hard depletions up about 8% thru Apr, founder Anthony von Mandl told Beer Insights Spring Conference, including 15% gain in Mar.  Mike’s figures total FMBs up about 4%.  Editor’s note: FMB $$ sales down 0.6% in IRI multi-outlet + convenience, but IRI doesn’t include Redd’s.  With Redd’s it’s more like mid-singles.  Ritas down double digits yr-to-date in IRI. 

The slowdown this yr is “kind of a momentary thing,” according to Anthony, essentially because of cycling issues for Ritas.  Anthony remains exceptionally bullish on FMBs: “We envision an FMB category 5x larger than it is today,” he said.  (Editor’s note: that would be 40-50 mil bbls.)  Recall, FMBs have already doubled in last 3 yrs, driven by Ritas, Redd’s and including cider.  “I am convinced this is only the beginning,” sez Anthony.  Mike’s has remained steady gainer and now growing share in segment again.  Indeed, it is only 2 share behind AB (29.8 to 27.5) in IRI data. Recent growth largely driven by Mike’s Harder line.

Palm Breeze “Hit the Ground Running”; Mike’s Demos Palm Breeze is Mike’s biggest bet since original launch in 1999 and it is “hitting the ground running,” according to Anthony.  It is “one of only 2 big bets” for Wal-Mart in entire beer category and has 100% distribution in Wal-Mart.  Palm Breeze is aimed squarely at female millennials.  Mike’s products overall are about 50-50 male/female, Anthony said.  But each product skews somewhat differently with original Mike’s having the broadest demographic range “from millennials to gen xers.” Avg age of Mike’s consumer is 34, Anthony said a few weeks earlier speaking to Bev Forum. On other hand, Mike’s Harder skews “much higher male” and 21-29 yr-olds, i.e. millennials. It also has “very strong resonance with Hispanics.”  All told, “at least 40% of our buyers would not be buying beer,” if they didn’t buy Mike’s, according to Anthony.  While over half of FMBs consumed in cans, only 8% of Mike’s volume in cans, which Anthony sees as “tremendous opportunity.”

Recent Rumors Are “Flattering” But “No Comment”; Intl What about recent rumblings that Mike’s could be for sale (for as much as $1 bil), INSIGHTS asked Anthony? “It comes up every few years,” Anthony maintained, and is “kind of flattering.” But as “private company, we never comment on rumors.” Still, Anthony did offer interesting comment about “one of the things that might be fueling this” latest round of speculation. Mike’s has recently begun to make international push, opening office in Dublin last yr.  In some countries, where there are oligopolies and “close-to-monopolies,” only way to get to mkt is to partner with some of these much larger cos.  “I think that could be part of it,” offered Anthony.