Mitchell Dist, based in Meridian, MS, bought 900,000 case Delta Dist, based in Greenwood, reportedly for well over $20 per case, tho that’s unconfirmed.  The deal will make Mitchell close to 7 mil cases in MS alone, 2d largest distrib in state after Southern Bev.  AB did about 21.5 mil cases in MS, with near 69 share there in 2013 (last available data).  So Mitchell will be close to 1/3 of AB volume in state, Southern over 35%.  But recall, Mitchell also bought 4-mil case Winner in Baltimore last yr, while at same time taking minority stake in FP Winner, a 4-mil case statewide All-Others distrib in MD, with an option to buy down the road.  It could be roughly 15-mil cases, presuming it eventually closes that transaction. 

Delta deal “will also consolidate Mitchell’s service area, allowing the company to claim the entire U.S. 82 corridor from the Arkansas to the Alabama borders,” wrote the Greenwood Commonwealth.  It’s a “logistics thing,” Mitchell prexy Adam Mitchell told INSIGHTS.  Delta deal “really helps us fill up 2 of our warehouses,” he added. What’s more, since all its territory will now be contiguous, it can go from 2 equity agreements to 1.   

The 2015 Beer INSIGHTS Spring Conference, focused on the exciting high end of the beer biz,  will take place May 11-12 at the Ritz Carlton in Chicago.  Joey Redner, Founder & CEO of Cigar City Brewing in FL just added to our craft panel with Firestone Walker’s David Walker and Revolution Brewing’s Josh Deth, hot craft brewers from the west, midwest and south. And don’t miss interviews, panel discussions and presentations including top high-end execs like: Constellation’s Bill Hackett, Boston Beer’s Jim Koch, Heineken USA’s Dolf van den Brink, AB’s Felipe Szpigel, Tenth and Blake’s Scott Whitley, Mikes’ Hard Lemonade’s Anthony von Mandl. The conference program will feature the industry’s leading high-end players, keen quantitative analysis, actionable insights and much more.  Get up-to-date with the latest high-end trends and network with your peers at the Beer INSIGHTS Spring Conference. Space is limited. Click here for more information and click here to reserve your spot.

AB and MC volume down 0.9% and 1.4% yr-to-date respectively. But they continue to lose over 2 share of $$ between ‘em.  Several new AB brands hit in last 4 weeks. AB sold 100K cases of Mixxtail brands and 23,000 cases of Oculto in 1^st few weeks. Amounted to very modest 0.2% of AB volume and about 0.1 overall.  But they probably were not fully available in 4 week period.  Montejo did over 50K cases last 4 weeks (about 0.1 of AB volume) and 122K cases YTD.  AB’s recent craft acquisitions doing well so far in scan; Blue Point up 46% yr-to-date and 10 Barrel up 35%. MillerCoors still getting good pop from Redd’s Wicked Ale, incremental 437,000 cases YTD.  But Miller Fortune down 36% YTD and 74% for 4 weeks.  

Craft is still truckin’ along; growing at 16.9% clip in IRI MULC YTD thru Mar 22.  And with avg prices up 3%, craft $$ sales still up a whopping 20% so far in 2015.  Craft $$ sales up $90.7 mil, while import $$ sales up $81.5 mil.  Craft gained 1.2 share of $$ and imports gained 0.8. By far the biggest gainers among craft cos (in $$ sales): Boston Beer up $20.9 mil, 16% (most of gain not from craft beer tho as Angry Orchard Crisp Apple alone up $9.5 mil, 39%), Sierra Nevada up $12 mil, 28% and Lagunitas up $10 mil, 59%.

Mexican imports and craft remain the growth engines of US beer biz so far in 2015.  While shipments give view of import health, scan data also shows that solid import growth is continuing at retail, especially for Mexican brands.  Imports up 7.2% in IRI multi-outlet + convenience yr-to-date thru Mar 22.  But Mexican imports up 10.8% and 61.5% of import volume, while European imports are up 3.9% and 28.8% of volume.  What’s more, avg prices for Mexican imports up 1.7%, while avg prices for Euro imports up 0.8%.  Key brand notes: Modelo Especial still en fuego, of course.  Up 20% YTD.  Stella up 15.9%, Dos Equis Lager up 14.2%.  Those 3 fast-growing big import brands have gobbled up share of segment for yrs, and are all still going strong.  Corona Extra is healthy, up 5.8%.  And Heineken up 2% YTD in IRI.  

Import shipments off to strong start, tho total US shipments very soft.  Shipments from outside US up 378,000 bbls, 18% in Feb, reports Beer Inst from Commerce Dept data.  Easy comp helped (-9% in Feb last yr), but shipments up from each of top-5 countries for Feb and 2 mos.  Mexican shipments continue to rock: up 22% in Feb.  Dutch shipments slowed from torrid pace in Jan, but still up 10% in Feb.  Belgian, Canadian and Irish shipments up in Feb too.  For 2 mos, imports posted 679,000-bbl, 16.7% gain.  Mexican beers up 461,000 bbls, 19%. Dutch gained 135,000 bbls, 21%.  With Jan-Feb import gain, tuff 2-mo taxpaid trend (-7%), total US beer shipments off 1.2 mil bbls, 3.8% yr-to-date.  

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MillerCoors “scrapped a planned campaign for Coors Light because ads did not go over well with distributors,” begins Ad Age article this morn.  Campaign dubbed “The Cold One” was “set in the mountains and involving a man who dispensed Rocky Mountain wisdom about Coors Light,” wrote Ad Age.  But MC execs “apparently grew concerned” before convention and “rather than showing the full portfolio” from this campaign at convention,  “the brewer opted to show a video montage with pieces of the digital content,” said Ad Age. That was nearly universally derided from what INSIGHTS heard. “We all walked away and said now what,” distrib told Ad Age.  “We hear your feedback on ‘the Cold One’ and won’t be using that campaign,” cmo Andy England wrote distribs, as reported by Ad Age.  MC working on new campaign that it hopes will be ready by Jun.   From Apr thru Aug, natl media buy for Coors family of brands will be up almost 35%, Andy wrote distribs.  With this Ad Age article appearing the day after WSJ feature on “Downward Draft,” hasn’t been greatest week for MillerCoors mainstream media coverage so far. 

MillerCoors execs provided a bit more color, and a few more warning signs, in mtg with London financial analysts yesterday than we found in reports on Monday’s NYC mtg.  Key takeaways, from Exane BNP Paribas report on mtg: “MC has been much more cautious recently on taking price,” noting hold on Lite draft pricing to get taps back, and “ABI has been more judicious on price too lately.”  AB picked up 25 basis pts of premium light share last yr (with “vast majority” of gain coming from Wal-Mart), MC acknowledged.  Then too, AB “is not prepared to lose more share and is holding price in premium lights.”  (Recall, Nielsen scans show avg premium light price up just 9 cents/case for last 4 wks.) 

“Underwhelming Start”; Blue Moon Slows Tho Seasonals Strong  In addition to these signs of pricing pressure, same analyst report noted: 1) MC’s 2015 volume “got off to an underwhelming start and we’re not convinced they will get meaningfully better” this yr; 2) “traffic in US on-trade is not particularly robust,” MC execs said; 3) “growth at Blue Moon has been decelerating: from +5% in 2013 to just above flat in 2015 yr-to-date,” tho Seasonal growth has picked up to near 20%.  Bottom line: Exane BNP Paribas folks “not convinced MC can hit its long-term volume guidance,” which is “flat to -1%” and “industry growth is hard to come by” in US and “the competitive dynamic is increasingly fierce.”  

Those who are hot are staying hot in 2015, it seems. Lagunitas going from strength-to-strength, with depletions growth around 50% thru Mar, founder Tony Magee told INSIGHTS.  It’s still capacity-constrained but with addition of faster kegging line in Chi and new brewhouse/fermenters coming that should ease over next weeks and mos, enabling Lagunitas to open Hawaii, Arkansas and West Va.  That’s in addition to Louisiana, Oklahoma and Western PA either opening or on verge of opening. Lagunitas expects to be natl by this summer.