Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Inevitable, perhaps, but in early 2023, Allagash will finally have a yr-round IPA. Requests from wholesalers and taproom patrons alike mounted over many years, sales director Naomi Neville noted during press call yesterday. But the disciplined brewer held pat with specialty releases and pilots when choosing to play in IPA, craft's top style in scans since 2013. The time is now, tho. Hop Reach IPA, clocking in at 6.8% ABV, will hit shelves and taps early next yr in 12oz 6- and 12-pks, 16oz 4-pks and draft. Launch across co's 20-state footprint will be staggered between Jan and Mar 2023, tho "not all of those SKUs will be available everywhere," Naomi assured. And it's a big bet. "We expect this will be #2" and "sit next to" flagship White, she said.

Just as Molson Coors walked back part of its freight & fuel surcharge plans (see last issue), New Belgium/Bell's is hittin' distribs with additional FOB (freight on board) charge as they plan to take price increases "to cover increased costs" this upcoming fall and spring, co shared with its network yesterday. Pricing will vary by market with new methodology to calculate the increase. Example given shows NBB taking suggested price to retailers (PTR) up $1/case on packaged items and $5/keg. Typically, NBB's FOB increase is calculated "solely" as 70/30 split of the PTR increase on packaged items and 50/50 on keg PTR increase, i.e. $0.70/case and $2.50/keg in this example. But new methodology would tack on an additional $0.06 to total of $0.76/case FOB increase on packaged items and additional $0.69 to $3.19/keg FOB increase (more details on methodology below). Keep in mind, NBB/Bell's collectively sold nearly 14.9 mil cases in 2021 and while Bell's is down this yr, co's growing double-digits altogether fueled by strength of New Belgium. (This article also appeared in sibling pub INSIGHTS Express.)

The historic rise of New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Juice Force IPA in scans this yr is increasingly astonishing. Juice Force hit $7.087 mil for latest 4 wks thru Aug 7 in IRI multi-outlet + convenience data. That's bigger than Sierra Nevada Pale Ale for period as Sierra Pale slipped 6% to $7.084 mil. Makes it #5 craft brand overall in IRI for 4 wks. Firmly ahead of the likes of Lagunitas IPA (-8.5%), Shiner Bock (-10%) and Sam Seasonal (-2%) too, which tracked $6-6.4 mil in sales each. Over $3 mil ahead of sibling brand Bell's Two Hearted (-7.6%). It's also a top-65 beer brand and the 5th largest new beer brand overall by $$ for latest 4 wks. Nearly as big as AB's Bud Light Next ($7.098 mil) for period.

This week in 1986, INSIGHTS reported on more potential headaches that could upend distribs and 3-tier system as "NY Wholesalers have lawsuits coming out their ears from taverns, convenience stores and home distributors." Cumberland Farms chain and Terrace Pub Inc joined Uniondale, another retailer in filing class actions suits charging that exclusive territories in NY were violation of antitrust law. To our knowledge this was first class-action suit in beer industry to claim territories were per se illegal. Suits claimed because of territories "the elimination of competition and the increase in concentration at the beer wholesale level have restricted output, created opportunities for collusion and increased prices." Not only were these retailers seeking treble damages, but they also sought an injunction to permanently ban territories. INSIGHTS noted at time that these suits were written as if transshipping no longer existed since brewer-wholesaler equity agreements came into play. Ultimately, the right to have exclusive territories prevailed.

After several yrs avoiding M&A to pay down debt from its $20+ bil shopping spree, Asahi is back on the prowl and considering a "full-scale entry into the North American beer market," Reuters reported this morn. Recall, relatively new ceo Atsushi Katsuki pledged to cut debt ratio from around 6x earnings to 3x by 2024, following appointment to role in Feb last yr. But "North America is the best and largest market," Katsuki told Reuters, noting that the Japanese brewer would consider brand acquisitions or working with startups in the region. "We haven't been able to find many opportunities at the moment, but I think there are various forms of entry," he added.

Just as Molson Coors walked back part of its freight & fuel surcharge plans (see last issue), New Belgium/Bell's is hittin' distribs with additional FOB (freight on board) charge as they plan to take price increases "to cover increased costs" this upcoming fall and spring, co shared with its network yesterday. Pricing will vary by market with new methodology to calculate the increase. Example given shows NBB taking suggested price to retailers (PTR) up $1/case on packaged items and $5/keg. Typically, NBB's FOB increase is calculated "solely" as 70/30 split of the PTR increase on packaged items and 50/50 on keg PTR increase, i.e. $0.70/case and $2.50/keg in this example. But new methodology would tack on an additional $0.06 to total of $0.76/case FOB increase on packaged items and additional $0.69 to $3.19/keg FOB increase (more details on methodology below). Keep in mind, NBB/Bell's collectively sold nearly 14.9 mil cases in 2021 and while Bell's is down this yr, co's growing double-digits altogether fueled by strength of New Belgium.

This is just latest of at least 5 distrib deals in upstate NY in less than 3 yrs. John G. Ryan, a Molson Coors distrib located in Pine City, NY (near Elmira) just sold to A.L. George, headquartered in Binghamton. A.L. George also bought part of Sanzone in 2020. A.L. George sold 7.1 mil cases before this deal, according to its website. Ryan reportedly under 1 mil cases. This is at least 4th deal for A.L. George in last dozen years. It also bought Finger Lakes in 2012 and Onondaga in 2010. Recall, in AB system, Vukelic family (Try-It and Saratoga Eagle) bought 2 AB distribs in upstate NY late in 2021, Northeast Bev and Seneca Bev. Vukelic family around 18 mil cases. And another of NY's largest distribs, MC house Wright Bev Dist, bought Certo in Buffalo at end of 2019. More NY distrib deals could be comin'. Indeed, there are lots of deals cookin' nationwide. Stay tuned.

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Carlsberg beat 1st half revenue and earnings expectations in report this morn, reiterating upgraded full-yr profit forecast on back of strong beer sales in Asia and Europe. World's 3rd-largest brewer reported H1 revs up 21%, organic volume up 9%. Tho net profit took ~$730 mil hit due to impairment charge on Russian biz. While co hasn't seen rising cost of living impact beer sales so far, higher raw materials prices will pressure earnings in 2nd half of 2022, ceo Cees 't Hart cautioned. "So far we don't any see any impact in our figures (from rising inflation)," he said on conference call. But "global uncertainty remains high, with the increasing input cost pressure a particular challenge for us in the coming quarters," Cees 't added, echoing comments from Heineken. Still, co's staying the course despite challenging operating environment. First half sales "well ahead of pre-pandemic levels." But "high single-digit" full-yr profit growth guidance well below its 32% growth in first 6 mos. Co expects growth to slow in second half with cost of sales inflation in the "low teens" for the yr, Bloomberg reported. And Carlsberg also in process of negotiating a 2nd price increase to offset higher costs, similar to many US brewers.

Big move likely to be greeted positively by Molson Coors distributor network. After much discussion and debate and "vetting a whole bunch of approaches," according to MC sales prexy Kevin Doyle, Molson Coors is taking recommendation of its distributor council and eliminating its freight and fuel program. So Molson Coors will no longer update its freight and fuel surcharge annually, starting Jan 1. This comes just 1 yr after Molson Coors jumped surcharge by 11.5 cents to 18.6 cents per case equivalent. That created big outcry and backlash from distribs. "This will be the set rate moving forward, and it will be included in the distributors' billing price," Kevin and distrib council chair Russ Teplitzky wrote distribs this afternoon.