Albertsons, Safeway and Vons tagged by California Dept of Alc Bev Control for violating Calif law that “prohibits the giving away of premiums, gifts or free goods in connection with the sale or marketing” of alc bevs, agency sez.  “Monopoly” game promotion in 599 stores across state in 2018 gave customers extra chances to win if they bought specific MillerCoors brands.  That gave ’em “competitive advantage,” ABC director said in agency communication.  Stores tagged for $600K, but $300K stayed as long as stores stay clean for 2 yrs.  No charges vs MC mentioned by ABC.  Meanwhile, TTB still mum about pending “big” offer in compromise teased by bureau’s sr counsel a coupla weeks back. 

Lawsuit in Nevada over Bonanza Bev’s challenge of MC contract’s transfer provisions went quiet in May.  Turns out they’re talkin’ settlement and both sides recently requested stay of discovery proceedings, “pending their continued settlement discussions and an upcoming mediation in Las Vegas” on Nov 1.  Judge granted stay but required status report on mediation results by Nov 7, “which advises whether the matter settled, did not settle or there are ongoing settlement discussion warranting a further stay.”  Recall, Bonanza challenged all transfer provisions in MC contract, including match and redirect, after it sought deal to sell its biz to Southern Glazers.   MC assigned negotiating rights to its preferred buyer Breakthru to consolidate brands, but took no other steps in process before Bonanza sued.

Google “Sober September” and you’ll see lotsa social media about how increasingly “sober curious” millennials and others planned to take a month off from imbibing alcohol.  Well, maybe this month (October).  In raw data, spirits volume +3.3% in Sep, $$ sales up 5.7% in control states, reports NABCA.  Adjusted for extra selling days, that drops to volume +2.2%, $$ sales +4.9%.  That’s behind rolling 12-mo trends of +3.4% and 6.4% respectively, but not exactly a sign of widespread abstention. Meanwhile, beer scans in Sep 21, volume +2.2%, $$ +6% for 4 wks thru Sep 21 in Nielsen all outlet, as we reported yesterday.  That’s among the best of the yr so far, tho not quite as strong as they were in “Dry January.”

Corona Hard Seltzer is coming next Mar in 4 flavors, in slim cans with variety 12- and 24-packs a well as 16 oz cans and 12-packs of lead Tropical Lime flavor.  Other flavors include Mango, Cherry and a Blackberry Lime.  Brand comes in at 90 calories, 4.5% ABV and has zero carbs and zero sugars.  This is first semi-official notice of Corona Hard Seltzer that we’ve heard about, tho unclear how widespread, for a brand that is frequently called industry’s “worst kept secret.”  Constellation will reportedly spend heavily against this initiative, as much or greater than it did for Premier ($35 mil in launch yr), sources said.   Constellation volume up 11.4% for 4 weeks thru Sep 21 in Nielsen all outlet. That’s slightly greater than its 9.9% yr-to-date.

Constellation reports results tomorrow, which will be perhaps even more closely watched than usual for a variety of reasons, mainly unrelated to its continued outperformance in beer (ongoing headaches with Ballast Point and Canopy Growth as well as its sale to Gallo of wine assets). “We expect STZ to deliver a solid quarter with upside stemming from beer depletions,” wrote RBC’s Nik Modi this morning.  “Our channel work points to a number between 6-7%” on depletions, he added, slightly higher than their 6% estimate.  STZ “accelerates,” wrote Macquarie’s Caroline Levy, pointing to its 13% $$ sales growth in IRI for 4 weeks, vs 11% for 12 weeks.  Recall, Constellation guided towards mid-single digit $$ sales growth Jun-Aug but maintained high single digits guidance for full yr.    

We transposed the numbers in AB pension settlement reported yesterday.  Total was $51.7 mil.

Wine biz analyst Rob McMillan from Silicon Valley Bank posted a provocative blog recently titled “Wine & Milk in Decline Due to Changing Science,” a thought-jogger for beer folk too.  His main point: for decades milk viewed as a healthy liquid, “critical for strong teeth and bones.”  Consumption rose steadily until “fat” became a dirty word and milk viewed as “unhealthy.”  Similarly, for decades wine considered part of healthy lifestyle, even by some in the US govt, in wake of info about French Paradox, Mediterranean Diet and lots of research that linked moderate alcohol consumption to heart health and longevity.  In recent years, public health advocates seized on some newer studies and links to modest cancer risks to reverse that narrative and advance the notion (again) that there’s “no safe level” of alcohol consumption.  Rob’s trying to get the wine industry to respond to these attacks more aggressively, perhaps even launch a “Got Milk”-like ad campaign.  Instead, “the wine business is working on developing lower alcohol and non-alcohol offerings…and that’s it so far.”  By the way, Rob also notes that the “science” around milk/fat has changed again, and even with the decline of fluid milk consumption, US still has record rates of obesity.  There may be an about-face on red meat too, according to a new analysis coming in the Annals of Internal Medicine that already has public health establishment up in arms, per NY Times this morn.   

Did “Got Milk” work?  (Will the just launched “Beers to That” beer growth initiative turn beer sales around?)  Dairy consumption increased over last 2 decades, but mostly from milk alternatives: yogurt, cheese and plant-based “milks.”  But even in wake of widely-popular, award-winning “Got Milk” campaign, consumption of fluid milk continued to decline.  “Got Milk” got plenty of attention, but other variables, i.e. demographic, economic and alternative products, likely were more important factors driving dairy biz. 

Wait, there’s more.  Rob linked to a recent CBS Sunday Morning segment on how plant-based alternatives are replacing whole milk: soy, rice, oats, almond, peas, you name it.  This even while the US govt defines milk, according to an agricultural economist, as the “secretions from a cow.”  He told CBS: “I think the entire dairy industry is offended that you want to say my product isn’t any good but you still want to use my name.”  Or, as an organic dairy farmer put it: “it’s not milk, it’s juice.  It shouldn’t be sold in the dairy aisle and it shouldn’t be labeled milk.”  In addition to not coming from a cow, these “milks” are often fortified and include oils, emulsifiers and added sugars, CBS notes.  And in a final irony/parallel, the head of the Plant Based Foods Assn, Michele Simon, took that position after years of being one of the fiercest critics of the alcohol beverage industry, touting the public health mantra.  Now, she’s promoting “great tasting alternatives” to folks who want to reduce their meat and dairy consumption, embracing a “health and wellness” message. 

Does all this sound familiar?  Hard seltzers are now filling a similar role as plant-based milks, and Boston Beer’s Jim Koch suggested at NBWA last week that “beer” is anything that is “made in a brewery, distributed by beer wholesalers and sold in accounts where beer is sold.”  It doesn’t need malt or hops, as the FDA/Internal Revenue Code tells us.  Final point: per capita total dairy consumption is at an all-time high.  But milk consumption is now 37% lower than it was 50 years ago, and the US has lost approximately 1 million dairy farms, CBS reports.

September numbers continue to improve.  Volume for 4 wks thru Sep 21 +2.2%, $$ sales jumped 6% in Nielsen all outlet scans.  That added a tenth to YTD volume trend (+0.4%) and $$ trend (+3.3%).  Flavor train continues to rock: FMB volume +45.4% in most recent period, $$ +47.8%, each 16-17 pts ahead of YTD trends in segment.  Modelo Chelada Limon y Sal made list of top-10 growers in most recent period. Coors Light improved trend to -2.3% for 4 wks vs -4.2% YTD.  Otherwise, familiar summer trends continued among top suppliers, top brands.

Approx 73% of C-Store buyers rated future prospects of seltzer category as 7 or better on scale from 1-10, when surveyed by RBC Capital Markets, per analyst Nik Modi. C-Stores report seeing plenty of White Claw out-of-stocks (82% report shortages), “with Truly and Corona Refresca benefitting the most.”  When asked about how they would characterize future prospects of suppliers, Constellation was rated best at 8.2 out of 10. No surprise then that 64% of c-store buyers said they were allocating STZ brands more shelf space.   Tho c-stores are so high on seltzers, not sure why Mike’s Hard was not among co’s they were surveyed about.  ABI ranked second at 5.3 followed by Pabst 5.0, SAM 4.9, Heineken 4.6 and Molson Coors at just 3.2.

Surge of hard seltzers obviously caught lots of folks by surprise and among them are sports mktg execs trying to figure out how best to handle their deals going forward. “If you consider hard seltzer a fad…you better take another sip,” wrote Terry Lefton at Sports Business Journal. “Unbridled growth” makes hard-seltzers “one of the year’s most compelling consumer marketing stories,” he added. Yet another perspective on seltzer’s potential, from AB beyond beer brands veep Chelsea Phillips: “Hard seltzer is really well set up for a long-term run.  We equate this to when light beer came on the market.”  So this notion that seltzer could be the next light beer getting more and more traction.  

Meanwhile, Boston Beer’s Truly inked deal with NHL last week, following AB’s Bon & Viv deal for official hard seltzer of the NFL (see Aug 28) and more recent Natty Seltzer deal with Big 12 college sports division.  These are the first of what could be many sports deals, cutting into what has been beer’s turf for decades. “Beer deals are just not the same anymore,” said NHL chief biz officer Keith Wachtel. “What you’re going to see are properties looking at these different kinds of deals as their beer deals come due.” “Everyone’s trying to determine whether spiked seltzer is part of their existing beer deal or not,” wondered exec for one top NFL team.  Another NFL exec cautioned, “The thing you have to consider now is whether it’s a smart move to take a couple hundred grand from a White Claw and risk the relationship you already have with your beer partners.”

One baseball exec doesn’t think there’s any question seltzers are here to stay and will play big part in sports mktg going forward. “Our deal is set, but across sports, my gut on this is that hard seltzer is becoming its own category,” said Troup Parkinson, Red Sox exec veep for partnerships. “As that happens, beer brands will be thinking they can’t do a deal without [hard] seltzer rights, the way soda brands now won’t do deals that don’t include water.” 

Not a lotta detail, but MC told distribs via webinar yesterday it plans to intro new seltzer next spring called Vizzy.  Recall, MC announced 4 new beers at meeting with distribs at NBWA last week.  MC has “great proposition” with Henry’s seltzer, innovations veep Sofia Colucci sez, but “we’re going to launch a brand that can effectively compete in this segment in the long term.”  Packaging, mktg and product claims still in development, tho Sofia did say Vizzy will have superfruits, given their consumer appeal. 

At distrib mtg in Vegas, MC execs touted speed with which they’re bringing new brands to mkt these days, cutting time to mkt from 18 mos to 4 mos in some cases.  And ceo Gavin Hattersley stressed again importance of “moving fast” in MC blogpost.  Asked about what to expect from MC over next 2 yrs, Gavin said: “You can expect us to move even quicker than we have before…. You will see us become more decisive than we have before.  If something’s not working, we’ll kill it.  If something is working, we’ll put more funds behind it.”  But even as hard seltzer category continues afire, and Henry’s has tiny share, MC not rushing Vizzy.  

As for Gavin’s plan to return MC “iconic brands to the glory days,” further drive above premium via fast innovation and boost “firepower behind or brands and capabilities,” Gavin said he’s working with board and leadership team as he takes ceo role of Molson Coors, to “finalize my plans, and I won’t be in a position to talk about it until October 30, when I roll out my full plan.”  Gavin has “very clear vision of where we need to take the company,” he sez.