Mike’s expects really huge growth next yr, around 4 mil bbls or more, tho it has never stated a specific number.  But Prexy Phil Rosse reiterated co’s goal to once again grow faster next yr than yr before off larger base, speaking at national distrib meeting yesterday.  It has accomplished this feat for each of last several yrs.  While Mike’s at 75% growth now, presuming Mike’s hits 65 mil case expectation this yr, that would be 82% growth to 4.7 mil bbls in 2019.  Well, 83% growth in 2020 would be 3.9 mil bbls.  Or about double the volume growth it will get this yr.  And if that happens, Mike’s will very likely be bigger than HUSA in 2020.  With Mike’s building 2 new breweries, adding tons of capacity at 2 others, investing over $250 mil on tight timeline, it expects to be able to ship 150 mil cases of White Claw next yr (INSIGHTS Express reported this first yesterday).  Can Mike’s really make all this happen?

Mike’s as “Flavor Forward” Portfolio Play To fuel the fire, Mike’s coming with lotsa innovation on brands and packaging.  Much of it on White Claw, natch, which is going thru the roof and now well over half Mike’s biz.  But Mike’s “is a portfolio company,” said Phil, with #1 FMB in grocery (Mike’s Hard Lemonade) and #1 higher ABV FMB (Mike’s Harder), plus fast-growing smaller brands like Cayman Jack’s (up 42%) and MXD (up 166%).  All “flavor forward.  The future is flavor,” said Phil, pointing yet again to how “flavor is the engine of growth” in beer.  And beer one of the few CPG categories where regular flavor still has such a high share (72).  But other flavors gaining about 1 share a yr for over a decade, he said.   

New White Claw Brands and Packages  Mike’s will add 9 White Claw SKUs next spring to give it a total of 22.  The new packages and brands included some natural next steps, like a 2d variety pack, a suitcase, 19.2 oz can as well as higher ABV White Claw (Surge) and “national launch” of lower ABV White Claw 70 (INSIGHTS broke story on Denver test of White Claw 70; see vol 21, #155).  White Claw’s 2d variety pack features new flavors like Tangerine, Lemon, Watermelon and this yr’s hit Mango (not in first variety pack).   Then too, White Claw gets a suitcase with popular flavors like Black Cherry, Grapefruit and Mango.   

C-Store, On Premise and Hispanic Opportunities White Claw has lotsa room to run in channels and demographics where it’s underdeveloped.  Both the 19.2 oz can and higher ABV Surge are c-store plays, where White Claw share of total biz way below grocery.  Then too, only 10% of White Claw volume on premise. This was first yr that Mike’s really pushed it there and it added 70,000 accounts, grew 387%.  And while White Claw household penetration grew a lot to 5.9%, that’s still less than Mike’s Hard Lemonade, pointed out mktg veep Sanjiv Gajiwala.  Hispanic household penetration only at 0.4%.  Over half of Hispanic households did not even know what hard seltzer is. In 2020, Mike’s will “invest meaningfully” in mktg White Claw to Hispanics.

Mike’s made series of extraordinary announcements this afternoon at its national sales conference.  It’s up 74% yr-to-date, and now expects to hit 65 mil cases this yr. That will be a gain of almost 30 mil cases.  Over 2 mil bbls!  Previous goal was 50 mil cases in 5 yrs.  As to that goal, Mike’s “blew it out of the water,” said prexy Phil Rosse.  Instead it will hit 65 mil cases in 2 yrs.  Phil set new goal: to first hit 10 share of value, then 10 share of volume.  That’s almost 300 mil cases.  And of course the engine of growth is White Claw, which Phil said is up 260% in 2019.  But how are they going to make enough?   

To make sure Mike’s has enough capacity to get to its goal, Mike’s will invest over $250 million in 2019-2020.  That includes building 2 new breweries, one in NJ and one in Western US. Each will have capacity to brew and package over 50 mil cases.  Plus, Mike’s will fund big expansions in Minnesota and in Tennessee with contract producers.  This summer, Mike’s able to make 5 mil cases/mo of White Claw, which by the end was not enough.  Next year, Mike’s has plans so that it will be able to make 12 mil cases a month of White Claw and even more in 2021. Much more on Mike’s meeting tomorrow. 

Convenience stores, still the largest single retail outlet for beer volume (almost 29% in 2018, Beer Inst estimates), face their own disruption, from multiple directions these days.  With Amazon and other vendors training customers to expect almost immediate delivery, whole notion of “convenience” takes on new meaning.  It ain’t about driving all the way to local small-format store (whether from home or on your way from elsewhere), having to walk in, find what you want, wait on line to pay for it, then get back into your vehicle and drive to a final destination.  Sheesh.  That’s so yesterday. And it’s certainly not convenient. Especially when you can pick up a phone and be gratified, if not instantly, pretty damn near.  Even in still heavily regulated alc bev land, Drizly promises 1-hour delivery.  Saucy sez “alcohol delivery in 30 minutes means you can let the good times roll.”  After all, “What’s easier than a beer run?  Not going.”  With this in mind, we share some facts and observations from two panels at CLE Intl’s “Wine, Beer and Spirits Law” conference.

·      Convenience, speed and “transaction time” in the store are main factors driving more competitors of convenience stores to curbside pickup and/or home delivery, panel of retailers from Meijers grocery chain, Instacart (tech co that coordinates curbside pickup/delivery for retailers) and Winestore Holding, a 7-store liquor chain in NC.  Meijers now offers curbside and/or home delivery from all of its 245 stores in 6 states, partnering with Shipt for fulfillment, a transition that happened in 3-4 yrs.  Customers often pay upcharge for goods, plus a service fee and a delivery fee, tho very murky quite how much that adds up to, and it clearly varies.  (Attendee sitting next to us at conference who uses these services quite a bit estimated she pays approx $20 on a $100 grocery store order for home delivery.)

·      Winestore’s prexy said he offers curbside pickup as it doesn’t cost much extra to have clerk carry a box outside the store.  He does fear having to add delivery for two reasons.  First: cost, especially if he has to use 3d party to deliver: “How small a margin do you accept?”  Second: “If I can get delivery, why will anyone come to our stores?”  Recall recent stories about Amazon’s non-store stores in Calif.  Amazon “is not the only retailer with a plan that involves no walk-in traffic,” one atty assured on separate panel.    

·      Given upcharge, “who’s the consumer?” one atty of advanced age asked, a bit skeptically.  Answer: “You’d be surprised.”  Millennials weaned on convenience, natch, single parents who don’t want to drag their kids around stores, consumers who work long hours, and more.

·      How do you ensure, legal, safe transactions for alc bevs?  Training, training, training to check IDs, empowering drivers not to complete delivery if they see something suspicious (like a horde of teens behind the door).  That may include paying drivers whether they drop the alcohol off or not.  Also, scanning every ID regardless of buyer’s age vs store clerks who can hit an “override button” and who are incentivized to make every sale.  Technology, claimed Meijers’ sr counsel, “will allow for more security, not less,” going forward.  Separate presentation from Clear exec – they get you thru the airport security quickly via biometrics – supported that point, albeit a bit spookily.  Want to buy a beer from one of their concessionaire clients?  Just provide your fingerprint at the venue, they’ll quick link to the cloud, check it against your “profile” and charge your on-file credit card, ASAP.  Drink up.

·      At same time, whole host of alc bev retailers chompin’ at the bit to deliver to consumers across state lines, especially in wake of recent Tennessee decision from Supreme Court.  In addition to potential dormant commerce clause issue if state already allows its in-state retailers to deliver, if state also allows out-of-state wineries to deliver direct to consumers (45 already do), how do you justify the ban on out-of-state retailers now, atty RJ O’Hara wondered.  

·      Ain’t just wineries seeking to expand direct-to-consumer sales, in context of 11K vintners and shrinking pool of wholesalers.  Distillers want to ship their very expensive, very high-margin spirits brands direct too.  Brewers not so much.  Yet.

·      And it ain’t just grocery stores, liquor stores and producers who want in.  Hotel chains, high-end restaurants and others want to be able have their “curated wine selections” delivered direct to their best customers.  “If everyone else is shipping, they will argue for their own right too.”   Also, while Total Wine isn’t pursuing delivery options aggressively (right now), RJ expects private equity-funded entrepreneurs to roll up liquor stores going forward to pursue that biz model. Especially if there’s a recession.

Tho non-cash losses from cannabis partner Canopy and delay in selling off part of wine biz creating “noise” around Constellation these days, “the underlying business remains very healthy,” RBC Capital Markets’ analyst Nik Modi assures.  Recent distrib survey shows STZ’s “beer growth story intact,” he wrote this morn.  Indeed, distrib input indicates depletion growth of near 7% for qtr ending Aug ’19, vs Nik’s estimate of +6%.  Longer term, Nik’s “brand-by-brand analysis” suggests Constellation “can deliver a 6-8% volume growth CAGR over the next 3 years,” and that could be even better depending on success of innovations.  Why so positive?  Modelo Especial.  “Investors need to migrate their attention away from Corona and towards Modelo Especial,” already 20% bigger than Corona Extra volume in YTD IRI scans, “to understand sustainability of growth.”  Other reasons to be cheerful: Corona Premier performing “above expectations,” 60% of distribs say; Premier’s cannibalization of Extra/Light in-line or lower than expectations, 80% say; Refresca performing above or “significantly above” expectations, 70% say; 90% believe Corona Seltzer can play in the space.  Net-net: distrib confidence and brand prospects drive Nik’s confidence.  Meanwhile, tho shipments data thru Jun suggests Constellation flattish in AZ-NM-UT, depletions data thru Aug shows gain of 6% for same states, further supporting Nik’s comments.

Diageo Beer Co USA is “well positioned to win big time in this crazy world,” prexy Nuno Teles told upbeat and concise meeting of distribs yesterday in Baltimore. DBCO growing “the right way, with very balanced growth across the portfolio” of beer, FMBs, seltzer.  Using Nielsen numbers for last 52 weeks, Nuno showed that Guinness Extra Stout up 11.9%, Guinness Draught up 13.6%, core Smirnoff Ice up 2%, Smash up 176% and Seltzer up 112%. (Editor’s note: Smithwick and Harp’s not mentioned.) Guinness brand still not up on-premise, but firming and doing better than the category.  DBCO up 6% without seltzers too. 

And with continued strong results, parent co Diageo is literally loosening purse strings.  Recall, it already spent $90+ mil to build Open Gate Brewery in Md.  In current fiscal yr, it will spend 25% more on Guinness brands, including 50% jump Oct-Dec, as well as beaucoup de bucks on its new Red White & Berry seltzer. Red, White and Berry FMB already has one of top velocities of any brand in category at key retailer.  New pkg for seltzer pops with cold activated can showing stars, building on iconic American imagery.  This is “game changing” and “biggest news we have,” said brand director Krista Kiisk.  Smirnoff FMBs reignited in recent yrs with Smash and Seltzer.  Smash alone already around 2.4 mil cases.  And even with some variants in decline, total Smirnoff brand up about 5 mil cases in last few yrs, DBCO showed. 

DBCO innovating more altogether. In current fiscal yr, it’s also coming with no-sugar Smirnoff Ice plus an 8% seltzer, and two new Guinness variants straight outta US brewery: Over the Moon nitro Stout and Stock Ale (aged in Bulleit bourbon bbls).  Both are LTOs (limited time offers) in narrow geographies as DBCO looks to expand Open Gate brewery brands gradually through a “concentric model.”   The new Guinness brewery got 400K visitors in its first 12 mos and brand growing north of 30% in surrounding areas, not including sales at brewery. “We are the only import brand with a hyperlocal proposition,” said Nuno.  That positioning is “unique to us.” 

Accelerating Growth in Revs, Depletions and Nielsen Diageo Beer Co on a “great ride,” said Nuno, with sales on a steadily increasing upward path in recent yrs.  It grew net sales 10% in fiscal yr ended Jun 30, 2x the rate of previous yr, Nuno reminded. And Nielsen trends up 14% for 52 weeks, 18% for 12 weeks and 20% for 4 weeks.  Meanwhile, in recent yrs, depletions went from flat to up 2 to up 3% to up 8% in latest fiscal yr, said sr veep sales Jack Edwards.  What’s more, 222 distribs grew double digits in fiscal ’19.  So far in fiscal 2020, 274 or about 70% of DBCO distribs are growing double digits, including 140 growing 20% or more.  In current fiscal yr, DBCO looks to “lean into seltzer” and “reignite our core,” said Jack in concluding remarks.   

Hard seltzer consumers aren’t likely to care much about how fed govt classifies their new fave bev.  But Diageo innovation veep Denny Brooks and Constellation veep/associate counsel Kelly Diggins did deep dive into key question at CLE mtg to answer interesting question: “What Kind of Alcohol Is It?”  And like many industry conversations these days, hard seltzer at center stage.  Lotsa informal talk out there about fermented malt base vs fermented sugar base, but Denny and Kelly dotted some i’s and crossed some t’s.  Net-net: they clarified difference between TTB-defined “beer” and FDA or IRC (Internal Rev Code)-defined “beer.”  TTB beer needs to have malt and hops (or hop extract). Resulting product comes under TTB auspices, with requirement to get COLA (certificate of label approval) and governed by TTB labeling and advertising restrictions. If there’s no malt or hops, and say, sugar used as “malt substitute,” then product is FDA/IRC “beer.”  That means it needs FDA-required nutrition panel and ingredients list.  But doesn’t need COLA and not governed by TTB’s labeling/advertising restrictions, which are very strict about making any “health” claims, for example.  So, FDA beers have (perhaps) more leeway, or “flexibility” as Denny put it, in “health and wellness” language on labels or in ads.  Any statements about any kind of beer have to be “truthful,” Denny and Kelly reminded.  Then too, all alc bevs come under TTB jurisdiction for permitting, reporting and tax.  As hard seltzer and other beyond beers – plus no- and lo-alc brews/wines/spirits, kombuchas, etc – lean more heavily on “health and wellness” and “better for you” cues, it will be interesting to see how themes play out among these different liquids.  Per usual, smaller players more likely to push boundaries than larger ones.

So, what’s what?  White Claw, Truly and Bon & Viv are examples of FDA “beers.”  Smirnoff Spiked, Henry’s and Natty Seltzer are examples of TTB beers.  A look at the labels on those products reveals the differences noted above.  Another quick clue.  If the claim “gluten-free” is made it’s an FDA “beer.”  If “produced to reduce gluten,” it’s a TTB “beer.”  Enjoy responsibly. 

A “Beer Growth Initiative” backed by Beer Institute, NBWA and Brewers Assn launched last night in Austin, TX.  Austin will host 90-day marketing blitz to “elevate and celebrate the beer category” with program dubbed “Beers to That.”  Campaign “promotes the entire beer category,” and “carries a brand agnostic call to action to celebrate life’s moments,” per joint announcement.  Aims to connect with legal age drinkers to remind them “there is a beer for just about every occasion.”  Kicked off with party at The Pershing event space in Austin, attracting 300 or so media, influencers, millennials and more to display that beer is: versatile, comes in wide variety of styles, pairs well with food, is a lower ABV choice, can be part of both a healthy lifestyle and fun social interactions, many themes that frankly, craft brewers individually and collectively have been sounding for years.  “Beers to That” will reach out with a digital media campaign, POS materials, a consumer website, “experiential events” and out-of-home ads, “funded through contributions from the coalition of brewers, beer importers and distributors.” #BeersToThat “celebrates beer and reminds adults of legal drinking age why they should choose beer to quench their thirst,” said BI prexy/ceo Jim McGreevy.  After 90-day test in Austin, assns will assess results and determine whether/how to move forward in other mkts with the message.     

Assn leaders each cheered collaborative nature of project, especially in context of fiercely competitive industry and backdrop of AB-MC corngate battle, which stalled effort for a while, reduced funding available and scaled back original plan.  “The Beer Growth Initiative is exciting because for the first time distributors and brewers, as well as competitors, are working together to grow the overall beer category,” noted Craig Purser, prexy/ceo of NBWA. “It’s amazing what people can do when they put their differences aside,” he told INSIGHTS, adding that 3 very competitive large distribs workin’ together to make Austin test successful.  This effort “celebrates both the universal appeal and diversity of beer and rekindles the reasons why beer is the ideal alcohol beverage choice for adults of legal drinking age, no matter the occasion or celebration,” added BA prexy/ceo Bob Pease, echoing Craig that effort shows “a lot can be accomplished” thru collaboration.  Ditto Jim, who noted uniqueness of the 3 assns collaborating on same project: “That’s how you get progress.” 

“Beers to That” has been brewing literally for years, after brewers and distribs started takin’ note of spirits and wine taking share of throat and occasions from beer.  Lotsa talk of launching a “Got Milk”-type effort, with plenty of verbal commitments to collaborative growth initiative in recent yrs, but not much detail or action.  Current effort has parallels in pro-“cocktail culture” rhetoric advanced by spirits biz, plus similar campaign in UK in recent years called “There’s a beer for that.”  Big and small brewers collaborated in UK, Bob pointed out, and determined that, at least, they stemmed a decline.  So, early days and (very) modest for now, but a start.  Distribs will see more details and highlights from the Austin party at NBWA convention next week. 

Beer volume up almost 2% for latest 4-wk period thru Sep 7 in Nielsen all outlet scans, capturing all of Labor Day and following week thru Saturday.  Dollar sales jumped nearly 6% same period (+5.7%).  That pushed yr-to-date volume gain to +0.3%, $$ trend to +3.2%.  Grocery got it all, with volume +4.1% for 4 wks, +1.3% yr-to-date. C-store volume still soft, -1.6% for 4 wks, -2.2% YTD. 

FMBs drove 4-wk gain again, natch, with volume jumping 44% for 4 wks, and segment grabbing 7 of top-10 growth brands, again.  But imports (+6.4%), superpremiums (+10%) and even craft (+0.2%) pitched in as well.  No relief for premium (-5.2%) or economy segments (-2.6%), with 4-wk trends matching YTD trends.  So, above premium continued to gobble share, close to +4 for 4 wks in volume and $$.  By the way, above premium hit 41 share of volume, 54 share of $$ in Nielsen scans for 4 wks thru Sep 7, a coupla points ahead of YTD shares.  Winners and losers unchanged.  Mike’s, Constellation, Boston and Diageo continued to roll up double-digit gains (Mike’s near triple-digit with 96.4% volume pop).  AB and MC continued down 2-3%, even with stronger industry trend.  HUSA still down mid-singles, Pabst -11%. 

Our occasional guest columnist, who takes his pseudonym from a wise adviser to the ancient Greeks, returns to give us his take on the topic du jour: seltzers, natch. 

By Nestor

Beer is up!

Well, not really.  Malt beverage volumes (and specifically FMB’s) are up.  Beer volumes are down.

While it is not clear that total malt beverage trends will change significantly in the years to come, there is every chance that beer will be down.  Why?  Well, according to all reports, a good chunk of seltzer’s explosive growth is coming from beer.

Malt beverages — driven by Flavored Malt Beverages (FMB’s), which in turn are being driven by seltzers in recent years — are accounting for well more than all of industry growth.  In other words, all other malt beverages–that means you, beers, and especially you, premium light beers — are down.  Most of industry growth is accounted for by seltzers (though some other FMB’s, are also growing nicely). So I am going to use the word “seltzer,” which is more mellifluous than “FMB’s,” in the remainder of this piece.

Before we get started, though, a little history is probably in order.

Post-World War II, there have been several major disruptions in the world of beer (and I typed “beer” very intentionally here):

·      the victory of the major national (and near-national) brewers over the local and small regional brewers from just after the war until, let’s say, the ‘80’s.  This was mostly the replacement of traditional lagers by other traditional lagers though most of the remaining ales also bit the dust at this point;

·      the advent of light beers, which decimated their full-calorie counterparts from the mid-70’s on;

·      the influx of European lagers, such as Heineken and later Stella, from the ‘80’s on;

·      followed by the even larger influx of Mexican beers;

·      and finally, there was the success of craft beers, starting (after a largely unsuccessful first flurry in the ‘80’s) in the ‘90’s;

·      and now there are seltzers.

So what?  Well, until seltzers beers had been replacing other beers (with the less explosive exception of early FMBs).  Now we have non-beers replacing beers.  Does that matter?  I think so. 

In the past, when a beer drinker shifted at least some of his or her volume from, say, Bud Light to, say, Lagunitas, that volume (and most people’s taste preferences) stayed in beer.  In addition, though, data suggested that most consumers had an occasion-based (Coors Light mowing the lawn, etc) beer usage set.

Now we have young beer drinkers, including new LDA drinkers, moving to seltzers.  Why?  I submit that the reason is very simple.

Beer is an acquired taste (I was first told this upon trying my first Guinness at the Irish pub on Mount Olympus).  It smells odd; it has this foam stuff; it has a very distinctive taste; and so on. Brewers have long known that light beers’ minimization of these characteristics, especially taste, has been a big part of their extraordinary success.

Seltzers do not seem to be acquired tastes.   They look innocuous; have no off-putting foam; are very easy to drink; and relatively easy to drink in volume (given no dominant taste notes, they do not tend to cause taste fatigue).   And, to be a bit crude, they get the job done.  Older beer drinkers may not abandon their lagers.  But younger and new drinkers (who have historically driven light beer growth) are doing so, and it is hard to imagine that they will cease this behavior any time soon.  And there is every chance their younger siblings will follow.

Seltzers are growing at an extraordinary rate, posting comic-book percentage increase numbers never neared by previous newbies.  How high can they get?  How seasonal are they?  Is this a fad?   Don’t know about the first two questions, but I very much doubt that seltzers are a fad.

Are seltzers hurting beer?  You bet.   Since spirits growth numbers remain strong, and wine is doing okay, it is very difficult to come to any other conclusion.

Right now, a bunch of other brewers are rushing to get into the seltzer fest. Will they be successful?  Maybe.  But the process being used by the two first movers (and their contract producers), based on the use of fermented sugars, seems to be clearly (no pun intended) the way to go in terms of yielding a clean and eminently drinkable liquid.  (This process also requires specialized equipment, which may be one reason that Mike’s is having product shortages. It also could be an impediment to other companies using this approach.)

So far, the third and second largest brewers seem to be notably absent from the seltzer field.  Why?  The Constellation folks (current seltzer share, post SVEDKA, zero) may be feeling a bit gun shy.  Their last two ventures, Ballast Point and Canopy, have not performed up to expectations; and this is a company not known for its patience.  We can expect to see Corona Seltzer (they have used the brand name for just about everything else that’s potable, so why not seltzer?) relatively soon.  As for MillerCoors (current seltzer share, two or so), they have just announced a slew of new products that will surely draw even more wholesaler attention away from Miller Lite and Coors Light.  But no seltzer!? 

As for the world’s largest brewer (current seltzer share, two mermaids), Bud Light Seltzer was probably inevitable and was announced to distributors just last week.  And Natty Light could be an interesting alternative if wholesalers decide they want to sell a low-margin seltzer against their high-margin seltzers.

Just about everyone will be in the fray soon.   Which can only increase seltzer’s market visibility and in-store shelf space and on-premise presence.  And thus volume.

My only words of advice — get these new entries right.  Even if this causes some delay, it will still be worth it.  Because seltzer is going to be with us for a long time.

Vet alc bev atty Marc Sorini set up CLE International’s “Wine Beer and Spirit Law” conference yesterday noting 4 current megatrends in alc bev biz. They’ll sound familiar, but Marc encapsulates them succinctly.  First up: “health and wellness,” as especially younger consumers seek “better for you” options with lo-cal, lo or no-alc and lo or no-sugar.  Second is cannabis, natch, the “new intoxicant,” perceived by many as healthier than alcohol, in fact presented as “medicine” by its advocates and sold as such in many states.  But is cannabis an oppy, a threat, or distraction for alc bevs?  TBD.  Third: “increasingly promiscuous consumer,” as drinkers choose from much wider variety of alc bevs than in past and nowhere near as brand loyal as preceding gens.  Fourth is that same consumer glued to phone screen.  Industry puzzlin’ with ways to “engage the on-line, hooked-in consumer.”       

Health/wellness clearly drives hard seltzer rage, Marc pointed out, and explains decline of mainstream beers, softness in craft/imports.  Then too, consolidation has “hit the end game at the top” of beer biz, at least as far as supplier tier goes.  No more big deals to be done, in Marc’s view, at least any with implications for US.  Meanwhile, consolidation still playing out in distrib tier, but pretty clear who major consolidators will be.  And wine/distrib consolidation near end game with RNDC/Young’s Market hookup and Southern Glazers. 

Big deal in wine right now: cans, “a substantial departure from tradition” of the 4-oz pour from a bottle, and it’s happenin’ faster than screw caps adopted.  (Yup, wine biz moves more slowly than beer biz.)  Common to beer, wine and spirits: “long tail” of suppliers still growing.  Ten yrs ago, Marc didn’t think # of wineries would go past 5K, now it’s like 11K.  New breweries launching every day.  In spirits, craft distillers “just hitting the take-off point” in numbers.  And a lot of these craft producers are “bypassing the 3-tier system. What does that mean?”  (Marc did not answer.)  Finally, in retail, it’s “all about direct to consumer,” and engaging consumer who’s not only not brand loyal, but who’s not even going out, to either on- or off-premise outlets anymore.  That’s new frontier, discussed by different CLE panels, on internet sales, home delivery, curbside pickup, etc.