While ABI-SAB deal mostly about Africa and Latin America, large emerging mkts in Asia also getting attention these days.  Vietnamese officials announced plans to sell off govt stakes in two large brewing co’s with over half of the country’s beer biz: Sabeco (40 share) and Habeco (20 share), for amounts totaling about $2.2 bil, report Financial Times and Bloomberg. Carlsberg already had 17% stake in Habeco and will add to that, taking it to 30%, sez Bloomberg.  Sabeco has up to 7 suitors, its ceo sez, including AB InBev, Heineken, Ashai, Kirin and others.  Heineken already has big biz in Vietnam (20 share of mkt and its 2d largest profit center, in fact, behind Mexico) and other Asian brewers – Boon Rawd and Thai Bev – likely to take a look. Vietnam beer mkt about 4 bil liters, reports Bloomberg and up 40% 2010-2015.  As in Africa, growing middle class likely to boost beer biz going forward “from Myanmar to Indonesia” in region, as FT wrote.

Emerging Mkt Oppys vs Emerging Prohibitionism  Could be a tuffer biz going forward in Indonesia, however.  That country is considering ban of alc bevs, NY Times wrote recently.  Reasons put forth by some govt officials not Muslim religion tho, but rather health concerns.  At least one large state in India enacted Prohibition in recent years, knocking back Molson Coors and other alc bev producers’ biz over last 12 mos.  Looks like Prohibition ain’t dead yet.  Indeed, Weekly Standard just jumped all over “neo-prohibition” moves in UK lately that it deemed “crazy overreaction” to alcohol abuse.  (Warning labels may be coming.)  Indeed, some govt officials there have picked up the old “there’s no safe level of drinking” mantra that some public health advocates in US spread yrs ago.   

Via “feature film-style trailer” called “Cantina,” Dos Equis team at Heineken USA introduces new “Most Interesting Man in the World” today. Short spot revisits near 10-yr run of original MIM as new actor, Augustin Legrand has quick exchange in Spanish with barkeep, spliced with action shots of him in “interesting” situations. Full-length commercial “Challenger” to debut next month just ahead of College Football Game Day (10/22). Dos Equis 1st beer brand to be official sponsor of College Football Playoffs. This all-Spanish intro spot, new (younger) actor and film-like storytelling all key to new MIM efforts, which “really focus on the cerveza and the social occasion,” Dos Equis marketing veep Andrew Katz explained to INSIGHTS. Meanwhile, HUSA folks still “very, very happy with the performance of Dos Equis year-to-date,” cmo Nuno Teles told us. “Lager is growing 7%,” he said. Total franchise volume +3% YTD in Nielsen all-outlet + c-store data; closer to flat for 4 wks.

HUSA did plenty of research before launching new MIM campaign, which comes about 6 months after literally launching previous MIM to Mars. Research into 100K households revealed “they had roughly twelve brands in their repertoire,” Nuno said, showing off “very promiscuous” nature of beer buying these days. They’re also watching “latinization” of American culture (like growth of salsa, tortilla chips, etc) and think “Dos Equis has a role for consumer to trade up,” be a more “interesting” option for light lager drinkers. Research into key young, legal drinking age male demographic showed that over 80% still want to be “interesting,” Andre added.

So basics of campaign needed to stay, while tweaking narrative and speaking to drinkers in different ways. New ads are “more contemporary,” Andrew said, and “happening in real time” so that drinkers feel like they’re “riding shotgun with this guy as he goes through these really cool experiences,” rather than mostly remembering them, as with previous MIM. “Storytelling” may be similar, but this story happening “right now, here, today,” not in the past. He’s also confident that MIM campaign won’t lose momentum with new actor, referencing iconic characters like James Bond or Batman, which have cycled through many new actors over years. And “college football is a huge opportunity for us,” Andrew said, as well as “lion’s share of the investment” behind the campaign. But mobile world means much more digital content, which only gets about 40% of investment, Nuno reminded. “From a pure content standpoint,” on the other hand, Andrew estimated digital outdoes traditional “probably ten to one.” That also leads to “huge reach,” like 3-mil impressions of MIM going to Mars, Nuno said. And those efforts also play off each other when digital world integrated into real-life experiences. Live sports is perfect venue for that. So digital/social work for new Dos campaign to include some “breakthrough new things with Snapchat,” for example, Andrew said, which plays off of Playoffs sponsorship.

Global Heineken has “nothing to be afraid of” in fast-changing global beer biz following transformational 15 yrs, ceo Jean-Francois van Boxmeer told folks during Barclay’s Back to School presentation yesterday in Boston, echoing earlier comments about impact of pending ABI-SAB deal. He continues to believe in his co’s “winning strategy” as it succeeds in expanding margin, expected to be up an additional 40 basis points from 16.5% in 2015. But with ABI-SAB approaching, “how does Heineken fit into a consolidating global landscape,” one attendee asked. “You say ‘competitors,’ and I am taking away the ‘s,’” Jean-Francois quipped. When you’re #3, like Heineken, “it takes number one to buy number two and you’re number two.” And though “gap” between what will be new ABI and Heineken may be “rarely seen” in food and bev space, and is “quite intriguing,” Jean-Francois insisted that it’s “not necessarily required to be as big as the bigger guy to continue to have a profitable and growing business.”

Instead, “the sum of the local leadership positions weigh more than the global leadership.” That is, “your local dominance is more of significance than your global significance.” Earlier in presentation, he noted that “if you want to make money,” he said, “you better make sure you’re number one or a very strong and valid number two” in the market. Heineken is #1 or 2 in 79 of the 89 markets where it operates. Of course, the US isn’t one of them. But in his view, “the world of beer is largely still a local one.” And in many developed markets, like the US, “everybody wants to have local.” In fact, “danger comes really from the bottom,” from “all the smaller actors that eat your lunch.” Big companies like Heineken have “little space to move against them” too, in part because as publicly traded companies seek larger financial returns, “they’re happy with 5%.” And “they claim they’re local; you can’t claim it.” That makes this “new competition” very “difficult to combat.”

Innovation Focus Includes “Crafty” Extensions to Key Brands, Cider  To compete here, Heineken has “acquired, and will continue to acquire,” but it’s also putting energy towards creating “line extensions that are crafty,” particularly in European markets like Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria and Poland, he rattled off. These line extensions with “craft appeal,” in ale styles, IPAs or weissbiers, can be more “affordable” too. And considering craft’s global expansion recently, “you see it everywhere,” Jean-Francois believes Heineken is well positioned to grow here. Innovation, generally, is a focus of the global co, under which craft/variety is just 1 “pillar.” Cider is also key: Heineken expects global cider to grow at about twice pace of beer by 2020, with average CAGR +4%. Last yr, cider topped a million hectoliters (over 850K bbls), outside of UK where category easily most developed.

“Decentralize” Marketing to Participate in Digital, Social Media  “Having a superior product” may be baseline, but to sell it, improve topline results and build a brand, “you have to have a great story,” Jean-Francois reminded. But marketing channels have changed dramatically, with “direct” messaging, through digital and social media “always increasing” and “traditional” channels “always decreasing.” So the co must “decentralize a lot more of the creative work today,” with many more, shorter, digital-only spots that maybe have a short “lifespan,” he said, “but you create hundreds of them.”

Molson Coors deal for SABMiller’s 58% stake in MillerCoors JV “makes tremendous strategic sense,” reiterated ceo Mark Hunter this morning at Barclay’s Back to School conf.  Deal which will “nearly double” size of Molson Coors, making it 3^rd largest brewer in world, obviously “changes scale” of its biz and will generate “significant cost savings,” and is “a game changer” towards MC’s “ambition of becoming first choice for consumers and customers.” Co will “be ready to go on day one,” after expected mid-Oct close, assured Mark, adding that as one biz, MC will be “a stronger more effective competitor with enhanced commercial capabilities to drive top line growth and win in the marketplace.” After deal closes, on pro forma basis, Molson Coors 2015 revenues would add $4.4 bil in incremental revenues, with nearly $1 bil in incremental EBITDA and worldwide volume of 94 mil hectoliters, net revs of $11.2 bil and $1.6 bil in underlying operating income.  Owning MillerCoors will be a "critical accelerator” of co’s commercial agenda.  In US, Mark is “delighted with progress” so far on key brands Coors Light and Miller Lite.  “Yes we are demonstrating that,” responded Mark when asked if it’s possible to grow 2 leading light brands at same time.  Coors Light grew 4% globally in Q2 and had “strong double-digit growth” in Europe and Latin America along with low single-digit gain in US, its best performance “in nearly 3 years.”  Coors Light has taken share in premium light category for 5 consecutive qtrs while Miller Lite has gained share for 7 straight qtrs. 

Early word out of Calif is that AB postponed most of its fall price hike in nation’s largest beer mkt yesterday, before it even went into effect.  AB was slated to go up Sep 26, near 3% on many packages.  And MC had already said it would follow.  But now AB postponed until March 2017 increase on premium, value and Mexican import multipacks (most of volume); other brands and packages will go up as previously communicated, sez source.  That would include AB’s hot high end brands like Ultra, Stella, etc.  Meanwhile, Constellation will hold on Corona, up slightly on Modelo Especial cans, plus some discount reductions (following bigger increases in recent yrs).  Recall, AB down 5% in Calif in 1st half; trends soft even amidst some steep discounts.  So larger-than-usual price hike in Calif may have been disconnect for some retailers, tho note Calif domestic brewer pricing ain’t moved much in years; 12 pack prices roughly same they were a decade ago.  More details to follow.   

ABI and Labatt Breweries of Canada announced Marcelo Abud will take over as Business Unit President, Canada, once ABI-SABMiller deal closes Oct 10. Marcelo most recently served as regional vp Midwest for AB. He joined ABI in 1999 and before Midwest position, Marcelo headed soft drink sales for ABI in Brazil in 2008. “I am thrilled to take on this new challenge and continue to build on the success the Canadian team has achieved in the last few years,” said Marcelo. He replaces Jan Craps who is moving on to prexy role for Asia Pacific South.    

Middle tier of US beer industry employed over 135,000 folks last yr, the NBWA reported in new version of economic impact study just ahead of Labor Day holiday. American beer distribs indirectly contribute to another couple hundred thousand jobs, shows report prepared by profs Dr. Bill Latham and Dr. Ken Lewis of University of Delaware. Beer wholesalers contribute over $70 bil to national gross domestic product, directly and indirectly. Collectively, distribs pay almost $11.2 bil just in wages and salaries, according to report. They also create over $23 bil in “transportation efficiencies” for total US beer biz. And while distribs collected about $11 bil in federal, state and local excise taxes last yr, they also contributed almost $13 bil in additional taxes. Recall, NBWA first debuted study into economic impacts of beer distribution tier in early 2013, when distribs employed about 130,000 folks, with about $10 bil in wages, and saved the industry about $22 bil in transportation efficiencies. Like earlier iterations, report breaks data up state by state and offers deep dives into ways beer distribs impact their own local communities.

An unusually telling chart included in Bump Williams’ latest monthly letter shows that IPAs are taking over off-premise craft and crowding out other styles as segment slows.  While IPAs have “slowed” to 26.6% growth yr-to-date thru Aug 14 in IRI multi-outlet + convenience, compared to 40% or better growth in last 3 yrs, all other styles are now up just 0.2% YTD.  The next 6 largest styles are down, including seasonals, wits, pale ale, amber ale and amber lager and variety packs.  

In recent yrs, other styles besides IPAs showed healthy growth.  For example, craft grew 18% in 2012-2013, and all other styles besides IPA grew near 16% and 15%, respectively, in those 2 yrs.  Craft grew 14% in ’14 and near 12% in 2015 in IRI multi-outlet + convenience, but other styles besides IPA slowed to 5% growth last yr.  And now they have collectively stalled out.   But while all these shocking shifts play out off-premise, Bump points out that “local taprooms and new Craft (Version 5.0) breweries selling as much beer as they can (at 80%+ margins) directly to the consumer and avoiding the 3-tier system” are “changing the beer landscape in a way much larger than most people can ever begin to imagine!”   

AB launched new Bud Light NFL Team Cans ad campaign starting with 75 second spotdigitally today and on TV Thursday night during season opener, co announced.  Ad dubbed “Your Can’s Year” highlights its 28 team partners (only Packers, Cowboys, Vikings and Bears not currently partners) along with ex-NFL legend Bo Jackson, Justin Tuck and Tim Couch in video developed by Wieden+Kennedy agency and directed by famous music video director Mark Romenek.

Following launch, AB’s prepared to follow thru with “the biggest regional campaign ever” for Bud Light, including extended reach with TV, digital, mobile, radio, and print, Bud Light brand veep Alex Lambrecht told INSIGHTS.  Many ads will be team specific and regionally relevant, so after this lengthy 75 second spot AB will shift into 10 short format videos that highlight “regionally specific rivalries.” Combo of 15-30 second spots, both general and team specific, will last thru December.

Gotta note, after a strong July 4 holiday period, Bud Light sales dipped 4.4% for latest 4 wks thru Aug 7 in IRI multi-outlet + convenience data, down 2% YTD.  But “expectations are high,” for Bud Light to close out the yr strong, said Alex.  “We know that team cans work” since last yr in Q4 Bud Light grew volume 3.8% in regions where it had team cans.  And total AB volume up 2.3% in those regions during Q4.  “This year we’re going to the next level” with both ad campaign and “much more iconic cans” that “look bolder, more confident than they have ever been,” he added.  All team cans will be available regionally in 12, 18, 24, and 30pks as well as on premise in various local spots.

“For over 15 years, we have seen consistent share of throat losses from beer to wine and even more so spirits. These are likely to continue,” wrote Bernstein’s Trevor Stirling in new report on US alcohol trends. “Multiple cohort effects continue to favor spirits over beer,” said Trevor, including “women as an ever higher percentage of consumption, the impact of the aging of Millennial consumers who have adopted spirits rather than beer as their drink of choice, the higher propensity of higher educated consumers to drink spritis, the burgeoning of the baby boomers who over index on spirits.”  At least “premiumization continues apace in all categories,” but Trevor too notes that “pace of growth of craft is rapidly slowing.”