Peter Zien did not found AleSmith himself, but purchased the company in the early 2000s from the first owner, Skip Virgilio. We also misspelled baseball player Tony Gwynn's last name. 

That was quick. Jason Davis, who left Sierra Nevada following long tenure (much of that time as region mgr) early this yr to take position as sales veep for BrewDog's US operations has now left BrewDog. Their US operation was slated to open this summer, but now reportedly may not open until early next year. Jason started today at Columbus Brewing, which sold about 12,000 bbls last yr and is reportedly the #1 craft brewer in Columbus, led by its Columbus IPA. Columbus is also in Cleveland, Akron and Canton, but it's not even in big swaths of Ohio. Columbus Brewing currently has about 30,000 bbls of capcity, but will undergo a $6 mil expansion, which will boost its capacity to 80,000 bbls. Reached briefly by CBN, Jason said he "can't wait to help develop the market and grow the company." Be interesting to see what happens next with BrewDog too.  

Key component to craft beer has been consumer trial and sampling thruout this era of growth. But "if any craft brewer of any scale anywhere in the world really understood how much of their business volume was simply consumer 'Trial' they would not sleep well at night," Lagunitas founder Tony Magee wrote in self-described "blurb" about sampling volume. Now that there are 4K plus brewers (and counting) with "proliferation of SKU's," consumers are beginning to have "1) satisfied the exploration curiosity and 2) engendered the famous Paradox of Choice under which consumers, given too many choices, actually buy less." And Tony believes "the latter is driving the former in the current environment, meaning that the 'sampling' element is being squeezed out of sectors of the system."

Consumers are "still enthusiastic about craft" but now "they are experimenting less which means they have moved towards beers they have 'sampled' and are most connected to based on emotional, flavor and economic considerations." So the "key insight" here is "an increasing amount of previous 'sampling' volume in the category is migrating from 'Trial' consumers to 'Adopters,'" sez Tony, adding "in that space we perform very well." That's why Lagunitas and "other emerging second and third wave brewers are seeing robust continued growth and share gains even as the largest of the first wave are slowing or declining."  

Oreg craft mkt continues to be the model state for how high craft beer can climb in a given mkt. OR brewers grew 11% to 650,500 bbls in-state in 2015, according to recently released stats from Oreg Brewers Guild. "That's more than 22.1% of all beer consumed in the state" (2.9 mil bbls last yr). And impressively, OR craft accounts for a whopping 63% of all draft beer consumed in-state, compared to just 14.5% of packaged beer. Altogether, OR brewers produced 1.7 mil bbls in 2015, up 3.5%. So over 38% of total production stayed in state, another 1 mil bbls were shipped across the other 49 states plus DC, and 37,500 bbls were exported (up 66% vs 2014).

Meanwhile, OR was already home to "206 brewing companies operating 246 brewing facilities in 72 cities across Oregon as of December 31, 2015," according to Guild count (actually a bit lower than Brewers Assn total count). That includes 65 in Portland alone and 96 total in the Portland metro area; 46 in the Willamette Valley, including 14 in Eugene; 32 in Central OR, including 24 in Bend; and 25 in southern OR, 25 on The Coast, 11 in Eastern OR and 11 in Mt Hood/The Gorge.  

Using the past to predict the future is always a difficult (and sometimes dangerous) game, but a sale of all or part of Craft Brew Alliance's biz is likely and the best option for the co's future, 2 separate Seeking Alpha contributors wrote this week. And CBA is reportedly exploring options. Each contributor filed extensive reports on CBA's BREW stock, valuation and possible futures for the co in last 2 days. Both seem to agree that "the clock is ticking," as contributor Vince Martin wrote. "The endgame here is a sale, most likely to A-B," he suggests. Well, that's probably incorrect, as DoJ ain't likely to approve that (see above). May well be problematic for AB even to just buy Kona, which other analyst, Mike Loughran, suggested. But these guys make many interesting points along the way, including links to Pabst and its partner TSG Consumer Partners. Read on.

The bottom line for these analysts is valuation. Both see a sale as the best way for CBA to drive shareholder value, noting that current per-bbl value of CBA stock - Loughran pegs at $270/bbl, Martin at $165/bbl "on an enterprise basis" - falls far below recent per-bbl valuations for craft M&A, which have typically been closer to $1000/bbl. But on other hand, CBA makes very little profit, so as a multiple of earnings, price of $10-11/share makes CBA "ridiculously, hopelessly overvalued," Martin writes, pulling no punches. "It's difficult to see much optimism coming out of Q1" results and any "recent interest" in stock likely due to seeing the co "as an acquisition target." Both these analysts point to difficulty CBA has had to expand earnings due to significant increases in capital expenditure and sales, general and admin expenses. Indeed, "despite a 37% increase in revenues" over last 5 yrs, Loughran wrote, "operating income fell 22% over the comparable period."

Yet looking at CBA assets, particularly fast-growing Kona brand as well as handful of breweries, CBA "looks ridiculously undervalued," again according to Martin. Given that Pabst has option to buy 220K-bbl Woodinville plant for $25-28 mil, Martin works out that the co's "facilities alone should be worth over $5 per share even if its brands were completely worthless," (his emphasis) since CBA has almost 1.4 mil bbls of capacity. But the brands have value, especially Kona. Kona on its own could fetch upwards of $900/bbl, considering its growth rate, which "would support a current price near $18," again not counting any other brands or facilities. This theoretical valuation, though, doesn't take into consideration the co's earnings/cash flow performance over last few years (which this analyst knocks). Like others, Martin expects "pricing pressure" in craft world "at some point in the near future." That complicates timing of a deal. So, "does CBA get left behind?"

Not in its entirety, seems to counter Loughran, whose analysis actually appeared the day prior. Indeed, he lays out a story that goes all the way back to Nov 2013 loan agreement with Bank of America, which involved deed on the Woodinville plant. Almost exactly a year later, Eugene Kashper and TSG came together to form Blue Ribbon Intermediate Holdings to buy Pabst. Almost exactly a year after that, Constellation bought Ballast Point for a billion dollars. Almost exactly 2 months after Ballast Point deal, CBA announced its brewing agreement with Pabst and purchase option for Woodinville.

Two months after that, it brought on Paul Davis as a new board member and two months after that, filed an 8-K that laid out those "golden parachutes" to board members and execs in case of transaction. These last two items get significant attention from Loughran. First, Paul Davis was most recently CEO of popchips as reports mentioned. "Not mentioned," Loughran writes, was that he ended his time at popchips with a sale of the co to TSG Consumer Partners. And in review, TSG "is known for reinvigorating tired brands and has an interest in beer" as well as "$2.5 billion in cash." Perhaps not coincidentally, TSG has a minority stake in Pabst and also SweetWater. Intriguing.  

Devils Backbone deal, announced on Apr 12, not yet approved by DoJ and hasn't closed. In fact, there's a hold on it, said source. Dept of Justice is "very actively" investigating AB acquisition of Devils Backbone, said another source. That raises prospect that perhaps DoJ won't even allow AB to acquire Devils Backbone. Even if it does, INSIGHTS hears rumblings that AB won't be allowed to buy more craft brewers.

DoJ is expected to say something on ABI-SABMiller the week after next, INSIGHTS hears (we'd been hearing next week previously). Will they opine on AB's craft acquisitions as well? Or will that just be 2d investigation, reported earlier this week by Capitol Forum, that is separate from ABI-SAB merger review and also the DoJ investigation of ABI in Calif.

DoJ not saying much obviously, but recall Bloomberg reported that DoJ would clear MegaBrew in Jun. That didn't happen, but it's apparently coming soon. Separating the many complaints about ABI's VAIP, branches, craft acquisitions etc into a 2d investigation would be a very simple way for DoJ to move on, since none of those complaints is a structural antitrust issue.  

In new world of craft beer, cos keep finding different ways to branch out. Such is the case with Brooklyn Brewery, adding to its many projects its own record label called Brooklyn Brewery Records, "aimed specifically at emerging UK artists," reported Fact magazine after co made announcement via its blog. It'll "launch with 2 piece rock-and-roll act The Graveltones," with "a limited edition pressing of the band's 2015 Halloween performance at The Lexington in London." Other alc cos such as Jagermeister and Hobgoblin have launched similar music projects "in recent years," mag also notes. And recall Ninkasi opened an in-house recording studio at its Eugene, Oreg brewery last year, from which it released an EP to support launch of Dawn of the Red IRA (India Red Ale). 

Foreign brewers, even relatively small ones that make high-end or craft products, continue to put down some form of US roots just as movement in the opposite direction continues. Latest: Hitachino Nest plans to open an izayaka-style restaurant in San Francisco's Tendernob nabe (bordering Nob Hill and Tenderloin near downtown and handful of hip high-end beer spots, including Mikkeller Bar), according to SF Eater. The restaurant, Hitachino Beer & Wagyu, will serve 10 beers made specially for the location. It hopes to open late next month. This craft beer biz just keeps gettin' more global. 

Here's a new one. Fast growin' Cincy brewery, MadTree, joked that they'd release popular draft-only vanilla orange kolsch, Dreamsicle, in cans on April Fool's Day. And now one fan went as far as to launch "a Change.org petition urging MadTree to release Dreamsicle in cans," reported The Beer Blog. Petition has 209 supporters (and counting), already up from 156 a couple days ago. When MadTree made the joke "folks freaked out," co-founder Brady Duncan told blog. "Many knew the joke," but "many did not and were pissed." So now MadTree gets "daily" requests from fans to can Dreamsicle. It's currently their best-selling draft brand at the taproom, but MadTree still has "no plans to distribute it in cans."  

Another brewery lookin' at oppys overseas, AL's Back Forty just began exporting to China with small shipment of 1,500 cases earlier this wk, reported Birmingham Business Journal. "The basis of that expansion alone was export development," Back Forty coo Tripp Collins told paper. Back Forty's already shipped small amount of volume in Canada for the past 3 yrs, but now "we're also looking at other parts of Asia, Caribbean and South America as well," Tripp added. So "we have another container lined up for July" and "hope to continue a once a month or every other month shipment" to China. Gotta note, Back Forty actually declined 2.4% to 8,240 bbls according to Brewers Assn stats. A little over halfway thru last yr, founder Jason Wilson projected 10-15K bbls in 2015 and co was listed as one Inc. Magazine's 5000 fastest growing privately held cos with revs up 385% to $2.1 mil from 2012 to 2014. However, this year things seem to be back on track, at least in scans: volume's up 42% to 7K cases, $$ up 28% in IRI MULC thru May 1.