Even while MC shipments continue down nearly 3% and MC earnings now under pressure, CEO Gavin Hattersley accentuated the positive in Q3 announcement/conference call. Tho MC has "a lot of work ahead of us" on economy brands, "all other segments across our portfolio are in good shape as we close out the year," he said. In Q3, "flagship brand" trends (Miller Lite/Coors Light combined) were the "best in 3 years."

Volume-wise, math is simple: if MC premium biz down low-singles, above premium up mid-to-high-singles and below premium down mid-singles, MC is down low-singles. And that's what's happening. Like at AB, lotsa puts and takes in MC portfolio. Most positive: Miller Lite up for 2d time in 4 qtrs. And tho Coors Light down low-single digits, it had its best quarter since Q2 2014, said CMO David Kroll. Both brands grew share of premium light segment in Q3, MC sez. In high end, MC getting low-mid single-digit growth from Blue Moon, Leinies, Redd's and Smith & Forge. St Archer has "potential beyond Southern California," Gavin said, and will grow to be "at least a regional player, perhaps a national" one. MC confident it can duplicate Redd's/Smith & Forge success in hard sodas with Henry Weinhard entries. Meanwhile, drag from Fortune's decline no longer significant. Another bright spot: Coors Banquet up low-singles and in its 9th yr of growth, tho Genuine Draft declines still more than offsetting that. "Biggest challenge" to getting MC total volume back to flat by 2018, and growth thereafter, Gavin acknowledged, is MC's "exposure in economy" segment. MC still has 28% of its volume below premium, and it's down mid-single digits, tho Mil Best down double-digits, Keystone Light high-singles. Only Steel Reserve is growing of MC major entries in segment. Assuming economy segment continues to erode and AB and MC play a share game there, and AB and MC continue to beef up their above-premium portfolios, via new entries and/or acquisitions, key competitive question for next few yrs remains how their horses run in premium light, still fully 1/3 of US biz.

Profit, Pricing Pressure Going Forward; "Soft Pricing Environment," Sez CFO While AB and MC booked handsome profit gains since 2008, lotsa signs suggest future profit growth will be much tuffer. MC has said all year it expects operating margins to be flattish in 2015, and that's with revs down slightly. In Q3, MC operating profits down 8% as mktg costs up. And MC promises investments will continue in Q4. Then too, MC got just 1.2% rev/bbl hike in Q3 (only 0.5% from price), up about 1.5% yr-to date. That's after yrs in the +2s and 3s. CFO Tracey Joubert cited a "soft pricing environment." That's clear from off-premise scans which show premium light prices up only a dime/case, 0.6%. MC is holding draft prices in many areas. And its new "pricing framework," which sales veep Kevin Doyle described as aimed at "going our own way" and "minding the gaps" between brands, packages and segments, signals a more cautious approach to price hikes. Another hit to profits: special charges to earnings as MC closes Eden brewery ($28 mil in Q3) in fall of 2016. Any savings from that move won't come until 2017, Tracey said. While these factors challenge revs and profits, cost of goods sold environment currently benign (MC COGS/bbl -0.8% in Q3), MC finding savings elsewhere and aims to "spend smarter" on mktg, CMO David said.

Net-net: MC has some improving trends and better news in premium and above volume, a drag below premium and some rev/earnings pressures. Then there's a competitive landscape with a well-funded AB throwing lots of money and new programs into the mkt, a rockin' Constellation (in segment where MC doesn't play) and continued craft inroads, all in an overall mkt that's sluggish at best.

Big changes happening within AB's portfolio and upper mgt ranks. Among AB brands, there are a number of bright spots, either accelerating growth or improving trend, responding to "stepped-up" investments. Those include faster Ultra and Stella growth, each up double digits, and Goose Island IPA up 150%, plus much-improved Bud trends. ABI increased North American sales and mktg spend by another $112 mil for 9 mos, $84 mil in Q3 alone. But AB still losing share overall as noted above. This yr, Bud Light down .35 share, Bud down .15 and value brands down 0.3 for 9 mos, ABI said. Yet AB is gaining about 0.3 share in above premium for the qtr and yr-to-date, it said.

Amidst brand shifts, lotsa people shifts too. ABI North American zone prexy João Castro Neves implemented sweeping changes of his leadership team. Changed 6 of 13 execs in one fell swoop, all in US. João will bring in several key execs that worked for him when he ran Brazil. Key change: new AB sales veep. David Almeida will move on to work on "special project" with AB ceo Brito (related to SABMiller deal?). New sales veep will be Alexandre Medicis, previously sales veep in Brazil. Also moving on and taking Alexandre's role in Brazil will be Ricardo Melo, veep of sales strategy and distrib development. Other changes: govt affairs and corporate relations veep Mike Roche, finance veep and purchasing veep will retire, while logistics veep will move to global role. Mike will be replaced by North American gen counsel John Blood. New finance and procurement veeps named too. These changes, less than 1 yr into João's tenure, came on eve of big mtg with distribs in St Lou, to unveil 3-yr plan developed jointly by some of these execs with distrib panel. But plan lives on, João told INSIGHTS. Now, "execution will be paramount."

Back to brands: ABI's conference call with analysts featured more than usual questions and talk about US. Each of Bud and Bud Light down low single-digits for Q3 and 9 mos. Those 2 brands at 55% of AB biz last yr, INSIGHTS estimates. AB's below premium STRs down mid-single digits for Q3, low-singles for 9 mos. Those are another 26% of AB biz. Makes it tuff to grow. But brand Bud "improving all year"; this is its best yr in "decades," Brito said on call. Bud Light went against tuff comp last yr, when it gained nearly 1 share of premium light (tho still down 2%). This yr, Bud Light has very similar trend, but losing share of premium lights as Miller Lite up in qtr and Coors Light trend improved. "We have gaps," said Brito. "Bud Light is at the top of the list." Next yr, Bud Light will get packaging "refresh" and "revolutionary" new creative, according to Brito. In early Nov, AB inked 6-yr deal for Bud Light with NFL, worth $1.4 bil according to Wall St Jnl, with significant new "assets" for AB.

AB's Ritas another "gap" noted by Brito. Ritas down over 20% in IRI YTD. AB coming with lower-alc Ritas Splash in glass. Tho Brito credited AB with going from zero to mkt leader in FMBs, "wrongly we stayed in one part of the segment, the higher alcohol segment.... We didn't capture any of the activity in the lower alcohol segments." Splash will debut in Dec. A 3d gap: Mexican imports, where Montejo a welcome addition but "we need much more than that," said Brito, because AB "totally underrepresented" in Mexican imports. Meanwhile, AB's "craft strategy is also working" with "good results" from Goose and "all four of our recent craft acquisitions are performing well and gaining share," said Brito. Another area where AB investments have made a difference: on-premise, where AB "gained share in the channel every quarter this year." Globally, ABI really is talking up top line growth more than ever before. Some analysts saw early evidence of ABI reaping rewards from increased top line focus in 3d qtr results. Each of top 3 global focus brands, Bud, Stella and Corona, grew revs double digits in qtr, collectively up 11.5%.  

Even with total shipments about even Q3 and down slightly yr-to-date thru Sep, AB and MillerCoors each down -2 to -3% for 9 mos. Meanwhile, suppliers #3-6 each posted shipments gains, we estimate. Those gains included nice bump for Pabst in Q3, riding Not Your Father's Root Beer. As expected, Constellation shipments "slowed" to high single-digits because of timing of recall last yr. But STZ beer division still up double-digits for 9 and 12 mos. And craft collectively still up double-digits.

Overall, biz lookin' a little bit better. For several reasons. First, Sep taxpaids +300K bbls, +2%, estimates Beer Inst's Michael Uhrich. Second, TTB added 250K bbls to BI's Aug taxpaid estimate. Third, Michael's estimate of state shipments, a slightly different measure, shows volume off just 0.1% for 9 mos. Then too, taxfree shipments, mostly exports, soared in Jul-Aug. It all adds up; all in, total shipments -0.3% for 9 mos.

As expected, AB shipments and depletions trends evening out for the yr. AB shipments up 300,000 bbls, 1.2% in Q3. But depletions down 2.1%, a bit softer than -1.9% for Jan-Jun. For 9 mos, shipments and depletions each off 1.9%. AB reported a 0.65 -share loss yr-to-date based on depletions, right in line with -0.7 share loss we figure based on shipments. MC steady share loss continued too, down 0.7 for 9 mos. MC took 4.6% shipments hit in Q3; off 3% for 9 mos. MC depletions drop almost 1 point steeper than AB's, off 2.8% for 9 mos. Top 2 combined lost 2.6 mil bbls for 9 mos; off 3.1 mil bbls, 2% for 12 mos thru Sep 2015.

Recall, Constellation had to reverse some shipments after recall last yr; that knocked back this yr's calendar Q3 gain to estimated +365K bbls, 9%. Constellation's 9- and 12-mo gains still 10%+, in down industry. HUSA continues very small gain: +0.5-1%, we estimate. Pabst jumped near 8% in Q3, thanks to NYFRB, which drove much higher $$ sales gain. Pabst up modestly for 9 and 12 mos, gaining share. Boston slowed in Q3; shipments up 4.5%. Beer was negative, cider slowed considerably, but Boston got pop from Coney Island root beer. Boston has easy comp in Q4. Still, it expects calendar 2015 volume to be up just 3-6%, far lower than guidance at end of Q1, which was +8-12%. With Yuengling trending down about 3.5% for Q3 and 9 mos, NAB down slightly and DGUSA up slightly no beer growth so far this yr between players #6 and #9 in US.  

KonaRed is adding industrial part to its biz by signing 5-year deal with VDF FutureCeuticals to serve as exclusive provider of US-grown Kona coffee fruit. "This partnership provides us the horsepower to capitalize on a huge market segment that we couldn't reach before and opens up an entirely new avenue of revenue for KonaRed to exploit and to drive growth," said prexy/coo Kyle Redfield, who'd played similar role building POM's pomegranate extract biz before joining KonaRed a few months ago . . . Mix1 Life confirmed it's acquired No Fear Energy Drink from Shadow Beverages & Snacks, and said PepsiCo North America Beverages will continue to distribute product in its Pac NW footprint. (Recall Pepsi system has been underserved in energy segment in NW because that's territory where distribution ally Rockstar has retained indie beer houses.) BBI had reported last spring that Mix1 had acquired No Fear for $12 mil (BBI, Mar 2).

Cheerwine, regional soda with national aspirations, is stepping up its association with another NC org to become "Official Soft Drink" of National Barbecue Association. NBBQA and Cheerwine will team up on promo and awareness campaigns, both online and off, including locator app that directs users to nearby Cheerwine and BBQ . . . Big Red, San Antonio-born brand that's still huge in south Texas, is launching commemorative 2-liter to celebrate Matt Bonner's 10-year career with Spurs basketball team as reliable role player and 3-point specialist. Starting in next coupla weeks, bottle featuring NH native dubbed Red Mamba will be available in San Antonio, Austin (where Big Red is currently based), Corpus Christi, Brownsville, Harlingen and McAllen. "To celebrate his 10-year anniversary, we thought it only made sense to put the NBA's only redhead on San Antonio's #1 red soda, Big Red," reasons svp marketing Thomas Oh . . . Over years, Monster Energy has shown deft touch in picking altsports athletes to align with. But new affiliation with UFC icon Ronda Rousey got off to shocking start when sport's top draw (male or female) was knocked out in 2d round by Holly Holm in bout on Sun in Melbourne, Australia. Rousey had gone into fight as 10-1 fave or better. Commentators expect a rematch.  

Recall the dissolvable energy patches launched under the name Sheets by NBA star Lebron James? At its debut in 2011, with $13 mil marketing splash that included billboards in Times Square featuring then-Knicks star Amare Stoudemire, brand got into thousands of retail doors and was viewed as potential threat to energy drinks. It ended up not getting very far. Now co called NexGen Brands is trying again with the bev-alternative format, this time under brand name EliteOps Energy Strips.

At the heart of effort are coo Ray Welch, who spent 15 years at Slim Fast, eventually sold to Unilever for $2.3 bil, and Joe Librizzi, an elite ops and finance vet from cos like Slim Fast and Bravo Brands who was part of Pure Brand team that launched Sheets. NexGen actually is decade-old biz that's marketed 35-year-old Thirs-Tea concentrated tea, but EliteOps takes place as independently operating sister co, both headed by Welch. Librizzi has also been helping Welch with Thirs-Tea.

EliteOps is sold in individually wrapped packets with 2-year shelf life, packed 8 to a box at $5.99, or 75 cents per dose. Labeled as supplement, each contains 100 mg of caffeine as well as vitamins B and E. It's out in Mint flavor, with Cinnamon due in coming months and likely berry/fruit flavor later. Among format's advantages are easy portability, liquid-free nature popular among truckers looking to avoid making pit stops (part of 5-Hour shot's early appeal) and fact that unwrapping each packet creates a "pause point" before consumer ingests more caffeine than is warranted, in contrast, say, to giant non-resealable single-serve cans offered by some energy players. Brand has proved a hit at big distribution center in Delray Beach, Fla, operated by UPS, whose drivers don't want to have to desert their routes in search of a bathroom, Welch said.

So what went wrong with Sheets? It made share of rookie mistakes - say, putting Stoudemire ads up well before product actually hit shelves of local retail partner Duane Reade. But big one was going with measly 50 mg of caffeine, Joe believes. Sheets upped that to 100 mg toward end of 3-year run, but it was too late. So Joe obtained IP and took it to Welch, who was winding down retail brand for cream of coconut biz he'd sold to Coco Lopez and looking for new brand. They've opted for staged launch, starting with 200 retailers around Fla base and landing RaceTrac petroleum chain in Southeast. They're deferring national retailers until later, with a few exceptions like Army/Air Force Exchange and Travel America truckstop chain. In meantime, they're experimenting with marketing mix, including vehicles like radio ad that pitches EliteOps as convenient alternative to energy drinks or shots. "Now you have a real choice," states announcer. "You can carry a week's worth of energy in your pocket or your purse." Among fertile niches they're targeting are college students, outdoor enthusiasts and the military. Brand has landed good reviews on niche energy drink sites like Green Eyed Guide, which touted 75-cent price and convenience in naming it Energy Drink of the Month in Sep. "For the first time, I am compelled by nerdy fascination to nominate something non-liquid for this award," reviewer wrote. Brand info at EliteOpsEnergy.com.

Tho they've had their struggles, pair of energy brands under Bawls and Crunk names have been carefully rebuilding their presence under new Ohio-based ownership team of recent years, as seen at recent NACS c-store show in Las Vegas. John Standt and Jon Gunnerson acquired Bawls in 2010, then followed that up with Crunk in 2012. Tho under same ownership roof (with Standt holding largest stake), the 2 brands operate separately, with separate sales forces, to serve their different consumers and consumption occasions, Jon indicated, speaking at brands' adjacent booths at NACS.

After foray into conventional 16-oz cans diluted brand that was built upon distinctive 10-oz stippled glass bottle, team has restored that as workhorse, now 75% of sales. But active ingredient "guarana is still the horse," Jon said of brand positioning. Front panel describes item as "high caffeine guarana soda." Team added first new flavor, Mandarin Orange, in glass bottle in Jan. They've also revamped can graphics and rolled out Orange and Root Beer in that format. Forays into areas like fashion under the founding team are long gone, but brand is still working videogame crowd via LAN parties, presence at PlayCon convention every summer and the like. Still, G33k Beer (geek beer) had to be restaged as Root Beer because too many consumers simply didn't realize it was a root beer. These days, co chooses its DSD spots carefully, with houses like giant Columbia in Pac NW, New Age in Denver and Johnson Bros in Ala in the current mix. And it's building Amazon online biz, tho here shipping considerations dictate that mix tilts 2-to-1 toward the cans.

Team is in earlier stage of reviving Crunk (whose branding is always styled as Crunk!!!). Recall that brand was founded in 2004 by Sidney Frank, the genius behind Grey Goose and Jagermeister phenomena, as partnership with Atlanta-based rapper Lil Jon, who'd popularized Crunk Juice concoction made of Hennessy and Red Bull. But despite pockets of strength in areas like Atlanta and San Diego, it never ignited, rapper's career plateaued, and after Frank's passing at age 86 in 2006 his heirs never really got behind it. So Standt and Gunnerson picked it up in 2012. Now, packaging has been given new look, featuring big C against a starburst, but core sku remains Pomegranate. "Pomegranate will always be king," Gunnerson vowed. But line has included Mango-Peach and Grape Acai in mix, and added Tropical-Blast flavor in May. Like its sibling sku, newest entry is all-natural and formulated with herbal blend that includes ashwaganda and white willow. Lil Jon is out of mix now, with brand resting appeal on natural ingredients and rich flavor, Gunnerson said. Like others in energy realm, it's backed off promoting item as mixer in alc drinks.

Denver-based WhiteWave Foods has elevated Blaine McPeak, prexy of its Americas Foods & Beverages group, to newly post of coo with responsibility for all global operations. He'll continue to report to chmn/ceo Gregg Engles. He's being succeeded in former post by Kevin Yost, prexy of Americas Fresh Foods, who now will report to McPeak and run such key brands as Silk, So Delicious, Horizon, Wallaby Organic, Earthbound Farm and International Delight. Yost will report to McPeak. McPeak will continue to run int'l ops of Americas Foods & Bevs. Meanwhile, cfo Kelly Haecker will leave co next Mar to spend more personal time with his family, co said, handing off his responsibilities to Greg Christenson, who's being promoted to evp/cfo after serving similar role at Americas Foods & Bevs. Engles termed Haecker "a trusted advisor and steadfast business partner since our IPO" in 2012 . . . Smith Teamaker, which just doubled its production capacity at new plant in Portland, Ore, has brought in Starbucks vet Tom Clemente as prexy. Clemente had run sales team at Tazo following its acquisition by Starbucks; the late Steven Smith was a founder of both Tazo and Smith Teamaker. Prior to his Tazo assignment, Clemente had worked on launching SBUX' packaged coffee biz and on setting up its in-grocery kiosks. He most recently led specialty coffee biz for Pacific Marketing Int'l. His career also included a stop at Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf. He joins Smith just as it's ready to open new 20-seat tasting room with a panoramic view of the production floor below. Guiding force behind co's specialty teas is Tony Tellin, who worked with Smith for 17 years.

It's common suspicion when small-cap bevco issues unrelenting stream of press releases touting accomplishments even as sales stay modest and losses mount. Now SEC has come down on Marley Coffee marketer Jammin' Java Corp like a ton of bricks, charging former ceo Shane Whittle with operating pump-and-dump scheme in 2010-11 that netted $78 mil in illegal trading profits. His partner in launching co, reggae icon Bob Marley's son Rohan, who's still exec there, isn't accused of wrongdoing, and current ceo Brent Toevs insisted that current team, whose efforts to oust Whittle resulted in extended litigation vs former ceo and then consultant, has cooperated with SEC and shouldn't bear any taint from suit. "We have shown that we are a legitimate company with a legitimate business and that we should not be held accountable for the misdeeds of our former management and their associates. We look forward to justice being served against Mr Whittle and his associates in this matter for our sake and the sake of our stockholders," Brent said in statement. Tho suit focuses on Whittle and accomplices, it alleges that current mgrs engaged in securities violations, accusation Toevs said co will vigorously contest. Note that Denver-based Jammin' Java operates separately from Detroit-based co that markets RTD relaxation and coffee drinks under Marley name.

Alleged fraud took familiar pattern. SEC said Whittle, "helped by 8 outside accomplices, illegally profited by secretly taking control of millions of shares of Jammin' Java, inflating their value and later dumping them on unsuspecting investors," as Reuters summarized suit. "The scheme allegedly involved setting up a front company to make it appear that Jammin' Java had a financial backer and making various promotional announcements that helped boost the share price." During period of alleged manipulation, in May 2011, shares surged to $6.35 for market cap of $400 mil, despite trailing-year revenue line that came to just $1,037, per public filings described by Reuters. Defendants then sold their shares, which later tanked to less than $1 and triggered SEC's investigation. Under new ceo, co has continued arduous task of building brand in highly competitive premium coffee segment, notching 18 consecutive qtrs of revenue growth and generating $9.6 mil in revenue last year, but losing $10.3 mil in process.

Typo in yesterday's issue understated reach of Celsius' effort to engage consumers in LA via their companies' human resources dept this Jan. It's 100K, not 1K, consumers.