Beer Marketer's Insights - Beer Shipments Off 4% in Q3; -1.5% Thru 9 Mos; Big Swings from Top 2; Still Ahead of STRs

After starting out flattish thru 1st half, beer shipments took a (needed) backward step in Q3 as in first half shipments had trended way ahead of depletions. So shipments declined more than 4% in Q3, shedding 2.3 mil bbls. Taxpaid domestic shipments down a whopping 7%, only partly offset by imports' 5% gain. That dragged volume down 1.5% YTD thru Sep with taxpaids down 4% and imports still rockin' up 7%. Total imports rose to nearly 23 share of US beer volume while domestic taxpaids (76), hard cider (0.6) and NA beer (0.6) collectively down to 77 share. Yet two of the top-3 brewers, AB and STZ, still shipped 2+ pts ahead of depletions in their latest qtrs. MC took most of its medicine in Q3 as shipments got whacked -15% (excluding Pabst contract volume losses) vs depletions -6%. But MC still ahead of depletions for the yr (see below). Top 3 cos representing 70+ share of US beer volume collectively all ahead of depletions by a pretty wide margin heading into Q4. That doesn't bode well for beer shipments finishing the year on a high note. Tho all signs point to industry trends improving in Oct. And beer price increases still on pace to offset much of that volume slip. Big Trend Swings from Top 2: AB Still Down 5% for 9 Mos; MC Down 3%; STZ Up 7+% AB beer shipments trend improved considerably after starting the year down nearly 11% in Q1; down just 3% in Q2 and -0.5% in Q3. Yet AB still down about 5%, 2.6 mil bbls thru 9 mos, INSIGHTS estimates, following massive 11+ mil bbl loss in 2023. Meanwhile, MC's own-brand US shipments swung all the way from up 11% in Q1 to down nearly 2% in Q2 and down 15% in Q3. MC shipments now down 3%, 1 mil bbls for the year, INSIGHTS estimates. Still up solidly over the 2-year period, but it swiftly swung back to losing share of beer volume for the year.Constellation Up More than 7% Thru 9 Mos Constellation shipments grew more than 7%, gaining nearly 1.7 mil bbls thru 9 mos, still top growth co in US beer by a long shot. STZ rose to 16 share of US beer volume thru 9 mos, INSIGHTS estimates. But shipments trend expected to slow over the next 5 mos or so as it narrows gap with depletions in rest of its fiscal yr thru Feb 2025.Mark Anthony Shipments -1.4%, Boston -3%, HUSA -4%, All Others +0.3% Other top brewers continued to see volume slip to varying degrees. Mark Anthony shipments down a little over 1% in Q3 and for the year, still shipping a bit ahead of depletions (-2%). Boston shipments and depletions are in line, both down 3% thru 9 mos. And HUSA slipped nearly 4%. Collectively, these next 3 top brewers shed 430K bbls thru 9 mos. That leaves all others collectively up slightly yr-to-date. But trend swung the other direction in Q3 as cos like Yuengling, Pabst and FIFCO USA lapped tuffer comps and craft and hard cider remained soft. Tho Kirin-Lion, Diageo Beer, Sierra Nevada, Geloso and Athletic remain standout growth cos among those below top 6.

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Beer Shipments Off 4% in Q3; -1.5% Thru 9 Mos; Big Swings from Top 2; Still Ahead of STRs

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