Beer Marketer's Insights - Craft $$ Down Just 2% in Latest 4-Wk Period, tho Share Loss Slightly Steeper as Beer Improved More

No shocker that craft sales remain in the red. But both craft trends and total beer look better for 4 wks thru Nov 3 in the latest Circana multi-outlet + convenience scans. Ex-NAs, craft sales improved to $$ down 1.9% with volume -3.4% for 4 wks. Compare that to $$ decline of 3.3% and vol down 4.9% yr-to-date. Yet total beer trend improved even more with $$ +2.1% and cases down just 0.1% for the 4-wk period. So craft still shed 0.4 share of category $$ and -0.25 share of volume, slightly more than YTD. Thru 10 mos and change, craft lost 0.3 $$ share and 0.2 of volume, with total beer $$ now down 0.5% YTD and volume -2.6%. Many Improvements: Mahou Up 3% for 4 Wks, Lagunitas & Artisanal Brewing +1%; Firestone Flat Lots of craft suppliers saw substantial improvements in latest period vs YTD. Among the most notable, Lagunitas and Artisanal Brewing Ventures each tipped into positive territory, growing $$ about 1% for 4 wks vs both down 6.3% yr-to-date. Mahou grew 4-wk $$ sales 3.1% compared to -1.4% YTD. Founders grew closer to 4% for 4 wks while Avery still down ~7%. And Firestone Walker was flat for the period vs down 3% for the yr. CANarchy still off 4% for the period, tho 3 pts better than -7% YTD.Athletic, Sierra & Kirin-Lion Still Gaining Share; But New Belgium and Even Juice Force Fell for 4 Wks Sierra Nevada still going strong: up nearly 6% for 4 wks and +4% YTD. Athletic also continues to post outsized gains, the 4th-largest $$ growth of any top-25 beer supplier, even as trends "slowed" to +50% for 4 wks vs +69% YTD. Kirin-Lion kept up 3.6% growth for the period and still gained share of total beer. But that's 7pts slower than +10.7% YTD, with New Belgium brand family $$ actually down for 4 wks. Still up 7% yr-to-date with sales off 2% for the period. Yet gravitational pull of Juice Force began to drag downward, as that brand also dipped 1.2% for 4 wks vs +21% YTD. Likely a combo of factors at play. But gotta wonder how much supply chain challenges are impacting sales amid temporary closure at co's Asheville brewery.Tropic Force Nearing Top-100 Beer Brands with $40+ Mil YTD; Big Declines for Other Kirin-Lion Brands Juice Force is still the #12 growth brand among the top-100 beer brands yr-to-date, tacking on another $22 mil. And flagship Voodoo Ranger Imperial is #21, up 4.6% and $6.7 mil for the yr (+1.6% for 4 wks). Tho just below top-100 cutoff, Tropic Force added all incremental $40.3 mil YTD. That'd be good enuf for #6 on this list, only behind Modelo Especial, Mich Ultra, Busch Light, Pacifico and Coors Banquet. But among the top-31 craft brands, Kirin-Lion paradoxically owns all 6 of the steepest declining brands for the period: Fat Tire (-28.8%), Fruit Force (-28.6%), Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze (-26.9%), VR Hoppy Variety Pk (-25.7%), Bells Seasonal (-25.0%) and VR IPA (-22%). So lotsa puts and takes as growth of New Belgium Hardcharged Tea also bolsters co's total trends.Fast-Growing AB Brands; Some MC Turnarounds as Blue Moon Light Sky Suddenly Up ~10% AB still owns the 3 fastest growing craft brands in this group as well as 4 of the top 5. Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug grew +30.5% for the 4-wk period. Golden Road Mango Cart also up 26%. Kona Big Wave was the only other top brand up double digits, +12%, recovering quickly from slower trends in previous 4 wks. Wicked Weed Pernicious was #5 with 8% growth. But just ahead of it was none other than Blue Moon Light Sky, suddenly up 9.5% compared to a 6% drop yr-to-date. The lone top craft brand to post a bigger turnaround: Leinie Shandy Seasonal grew 16 pts ahead of its YTD trend, up 3.6% for 4 wks. Blue Moon Belgian White also eked out growth for the period with $$ +0.1% vs -4% for the yr. So sales of MC's top-2 craft brands on better footing for the period. Blue Moon brand fam $$ sales down 1.3% ex-NAs and back in black including those all-incremental sales.Lagunitas Better of Late; Sam Adams Struggling; Georgetown Bodhizafa $$ Down 4% Sierra Hazy Little Thing ($$ +6.2%) was the only other top craft brand to grow for 4 wks. But Founders All Day IPA (-0.7%) and Cigar City Jai Alai (-0.9%) not far behind that benchmark and better than YTD. Each of Elysian Space Dust (-1.4%), Lagunitas IPA (-2.7%) and Lagunitas Little Sumpin Sumpin (-4.3%) outpaced YTD trends by 5-6 pts for 4 wks. Tho Sam Adams struggling with 3 top brands down double digits: Boston Lager $$ dropped 10%, Sam Adams vty pk down 15% and Sam Seasonal slipped 17% for the period. Georgetown Bodhizafa IPA $$ sales surprisingly fell 4%. But that brand still up 11% for the yr.

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Craft $$ Down Just 2% in Latest 4-Wk Period, tho Share Loss Slightly Steeper as Beer Improved More

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