BMI Archives Entry

BMI Archives Entry

Following improved trends in Nov, craft segment's starting to slip again in scans for final mo of 2016. As recently as Nov 26, craft volume was up 3.2% for 4 wks, but volume up just 0.7% for 4 wks thru Dec 10 in Nielsen All Outlet data, suggesting even tuffer trends for latest 2 wks. While Blue Moon (-2%) and Sam Adams (-7%) franchises slightly improved for period, Sierra (-8%), New Belgium (-7%) and Shock Top (-25%) worsened yet. And tho Leinie Shandy franchise improved to flat for 4 wks, its legacy craft portfolio still draggin' total trend down. Remaining Domestic Brewers trend markedly slowed for period too, up just 1.8% vs 7.5% YTD. But keep in mind, that group includes Sierra, NBB and other large craft brewers having tuffer time this yr. All in, total beer biz volume slowed too. Beer flat for 4 wks as craft slowed, FMBs slipped 1% and Premium/Economy trends softened. Import and superpremium maintained +7-8% trends and cider slightly improved, tho still down 12% for period. YTD, total beer volume up 0.6%, craft volume up 3.1% in Nielsen All Outlet. 
It's a hot, hard and hectic world out there in trademark land. And you can't make this stuff up. US Patent and Trademark Office "refused to register the mark WOODY WHEAT" for a beer brand, reports the TTABlog. Why not? Because there are already two other Woody beers standing out there, a Woody Stout and a Woody Brown Ale, in the hands of others. Tho Woody Wheat's owner sez "co-existence" of those two marks made the word Woody a "weak formative for beer," USPTO "unimpressed" with that argument and whacked the registration, insisting another Woody would confuse consumers. Indeed, allowing a 3d Woody "would provide substantially no protection for" the other 2 Woody holders, in effect leaving them standing there with nothing but their woodies in their hands.
Oskar Blues will add another restaurant/bar venue to its growing list of retail spaces, this time in Downtown Colorado Springs, co announced. Similar to its coming RiNo space, it'll occupy 15K sq-ft on two levels, with 43 beers on tap "from around the country," southern style grub and various games, a live music space and outdoor patio for entertainment. If all goes accordingly, CHUBurger restaurant and Hotbox Roasters next door will open this winter and Colorado Springs space will open this summer. It'll be open from 11am to 12am Monday thru Friday, and open "a bit earlier" on weekends. Gotta note, earlier this yr, one Denver bar owner, Chris Black of renowned craft beer bar Falling Rock Tap House in Denver took particular issue with the fact that Oskar Blues will sell other cos' beers as well. In an "open letter" on Facebook, Chris vowed to never carry any Oskar Blues products again for various reasons (see May 26 issue). It'll be interesting to see if there's any backlash from local retailers/bars this time around.
Schafly co-founder Dan Kopman is next craft founder to part ways with the biz. Following Schlafly majority sale to Sage Capital (PE firm) in 2012, Dan signed five-year agreement that's now coming to an end. So Dan's opted to leave "at the end of 2016 to pursue other interests," he wrote CBN. "I don't' honestly know where I'm headed," Dan told St Louis Post Dispatch separately, but didn't rule out possibility of stickin' to the beer biz. In 25-yr span "we grew a business from nothing to $20m in sales," and helped "revitalize two neighborhoods" in the process, he wrote. Dan's also been very active in policy matters over the yrs, with particular interest in tax policy. He's had relationship with BI staff and joined BA board of directors in 2015 to help push forward tax reform bill among other aspects.

Recall, Schlafly hired new CEO James Pendergraft in early 2015 as Dan moved to co-chairman role along with Tom Schlafly. Tho Schalfly's been stuck at 60K bbls annually due to capacity constraints, earlier this yr Schlafly finally began expansion project that'll boost capacity to 90K bbls/yr by 2017 (see Jan 20 issue). Currently Schlafly is in 15 states + DC. 
Boston Beer's AS Beer unit (formerly known as Alchemy & Science) has its work cut out for 'em following tuff back half of this year lapping natl alc soda and shandy launches of 2015. Trends dipped 60% plus again for latest 4 wks thru Nov 27 in IRI multi-outlet + convenience, bringing it to just +3% YTD; in danger of declining for the full year if trends continue thru Dec despite an 8-mo all-incremental head start against Coney Island Hard Root Beer launch.

One issue with alc soda is that it "lacks any brand strength," recently appointed AS Beer prexy Rob Krezwick told CBN. Alc soda consumers "shop styles" and "what's best-priced," exactly "what you'd hate to see happen to craft beer." Also, there's limited amount of differentiation you can have with root beer and other soda flavors compared to say an IPA style, he thought. So heading into 2017, "we went after what we think is the white space," introducing new Coney Island Lemon-Lime Citrus Ale, a beer base with lemon-lime citrus flavoring that's "somewhat different." AS Beer is encouraged by fact that lemon-lime flavored non-alc sodas have a 10 share. But fact remains that hard sodas, in general, are stalling out big time. So Coney Island more focused on "trying to be a strong healthy beer brand" in its core mkts, while sodas can be used as a way to familiarize consumers with the Coney Island brand in further geographies. Beer brands still do 80% of their biz in NYC area. After launching CT and RI in Jun 2016, co "really went after" CT, said Rob, securing "a lot of draft lines" and getting "good support" at retail. Lead brand, Mermaid Pilsner is "working."

"Still a Huge Upside" with Shandy; "Re-Group" and Focus on Specific Mkts in 2017 Despite tuff year for Traveler shandy brands, Rob and co still see "a huge upside here." When you break down "what's driving growth" in the beer biz into "buckets," Traveler shandy hits many of the "key trigger words," i.e. drinkable, sessionable, refreshing, simple, etc. AS Beer "probably went too far too quick" with Traveler, Rob admitted, realizing now that it's "pretty much impossible" to take a brand nation-wide overnight. So next year provides an "opportunity to re-group." There are still lotsa mkts where brand is "doing really well," including Pittsburgh, parts of OH, FL, Des Moines, IA, Chicago, Atlanta (one of its top-10 mkts).

Traveler simplified its portfolio, now only offering one variant, Grapefruit, yr-round. Co "hit on something with the grapefruit," but it was difficult to shake consumer "perception" that lemon shandy is more than a summer drink, said Rob. So previous flagship Curious Traveler is now a seasonal along with Jacko, Jolly and new Aloha next spring. Keep in mind, MillerCoors' Leinenkugel Summer Shandy had tuff year as well, tho big part of that was due to incorrect volume projections, sez co. Yet Leinie Grapefruit shandy has accelerated thruout its 2d year, up 500% plus in IRI for latest 12 wks and more than doubling YTD.

Angel City & Concrete Beach Coming Along in Underdeveloped Craft Mkts Both Angel City and Concrete Beach continue to develop in their respective underdeveloped craft mkts, LA and Miami. Back when AS acquired Angel City in 2011, Los Angeles craft was just 4 share of total beer. Now that's grown to 6-7% and Angel City's become a legitimate destination spot in the process, recognized as a "driving force" for craft here, stated Rob. And a little over a year into project, Miami-based Concrete Beach is starting to find "a cool groove" as presence in local mkt grows along with "numbers [of visitors] at the Social Hall." There's been a "similar emergence" of breweries popping up in Miami area alongside Concrete Beach (including Wynwood, see above), but Miami craft is even further behind; still under 2 share, last Rob checked.

Both likely stickin' to their current distribution footprints in 2017. "Someday" these local projects may expand into multi-state, regional and perhaps even natl brands, but "local is our effort right now," said Rob. Angel City launched distribution in CA statewide earlier this yr and extended into Vegas. Plan is to "keep driving" lead brand Angeleno IPA, Pilsner and newer LAger, while keeping up experimentation too. Next yr it'll launch new Citrus wheat beer with different SoCal fruits as well as a quad IPA. Similarly, Concrete Beach is making lotsa tropical-themed brews with "unique to Miami flavors" including new Tangerine version of Rica IPA and Passion Fruit wheat ale, tho standard Rica Wheat IPA and Pilsner are sellin' well too.

"Always Window Shopping" but No Plans to Acquire or Build; Just Beer Comeback? Asked about potential for new projects going forward, Rob said they're "always window shopping" but there's "nothing right now." It still owns Just Beer Project, so "still might do something there." But Jim Koch and Martin Roper have given Rob and his team some leeway with loose guidelines to "keep looking for ways to grow. How we do this is really up to us," he said. AS Beer just renewed lease on its office in Burlington, VT, so that'll continue to be home base even after Alan Newman leaves at yr-end. 

This is a messy one. Five-year-old Chicago-based brewer, Finch Beer Co, "plans to shutter its original operation on Elston Avenue, pull out of the brewpub it launched during the summer and begin brewing at an existing Chicago brewery [yet to be named]," reported Chicago Tribune late last wk. Finch expects to announce "strategic deal for the next Finch space" sometime this wk, as "an opportunity came up for us that solves a lot of the strategic challenges we've had," one Finch Beer partner, Jeff Bergau, told paper. "Other brands will be involved" in production there too, he hinted, including Jeff's other brewery, Hopothesis beer Co, which was quietly acquired by Finch this yr after starting in 2013 as a gypsy brewer. Jeff and his original partner sold Hopothesis to Finch in exchange for equity in the total co.

Meanwhile, Finch will auction off "much of its current brewing equipment in January, including its brew house, fermentation tanks and canning line," sez paper. And after teaming up with well-known local chef and restaurateur, Matthias Merges, to launch Finch Kitchen brewpub in space previously occupied (and still owned) by Breakroom Brewery, that project "also on the way out." Matthias is leaving the brewpub due to "a lot of issues [that] have come to light regarding the relationship between the Breakroom ownership and Finch Beer Co. that has put us in an uncomfortable position," he explained. So Finch Kitchen "will convert to a brewpub associated with a different brewery," one of initial Breakroom founders, Jeff Piejak added. (By the way, Breakroom brewery failed in same brewpub space after being in biz for just 1 yr, following "tumultuous start that included losing its original brewer…and forcing out a founding partner.")

Finch Beer was originally Finch's Beer Co before other investors in the co felt need to buy out founder Ben Finch earlier this yr "in a bid to rehabilitate and focus the brand" and decided to make the slight name tweak. Recall, toward the end of 2014, Ben and co announced ambitious plan to build a 45K sq-ft production facility on the west side of Lincoln Park neighborhood, right on the Chicago River (see Dec 17, 2014 issue). Back then, Ben had plans to become a national brand utilizing 16oz 4pk cans as "go-to-package." But those plans for production facility never materialized, nor did follow-up plan "to build a brewery near his home in suburban Long Grove," paper noted. Co grew from 2,200 bbls in yr-1 to 10,200 bbls in 2015, according to Brewers Assn data. But that was spread thruout 20+ states. Finch brews "could only be found in a modest number of local accounts" and "several industry sources" described founder Ben as "thorny character" that "alienated many people in the industry," paper wrote. Now, Finch has cut back distribution to "about a dozen states" and at one point "lost six weeks of production this year due to equipment problems." So net-net, Finch sales are hurting; down 64% in IRI data thru Nov (tracking just a small portion of its volume). But with new production plans in place, Finch investor Jeff insisted that "this is all part of a bigger strategy," and "we're investing in growth." 

Following DoJ's promise to carefully scrutinize any further AB craft acquisitions, and just a little over 1 mo after deal announced, AB "received federal antitrust approval to close our transaction with Karbach Brewing Co., which we anticipate will occur in the next several weeks," AB announced this week. Recall, this is first time AB's done a deal in a state where it still has over 50 share of shipments (52.3 in 2015). DOJ A-OK anyway. (This article appeared in INSIGHTS Express on Monday.) 

Colorado's Odell Brewing expects to finish the yr up 9.2%, 10,000 bbls to 120,000 bbls, co-founder Wynne Odell told CBN. That's still solid in an increasingly challenging environment, but Odell was "planning for double that." Like many other craft brewers, it fell victim to "lack of interest in seasonals" with "profusion of small locals" now providing lots of variety. And it also saw tuff trends on 4-packs. But its #1 brand, 90 Shilling Ale, still up double digits and represented about 35% of its biz. Including its IPA and new Drumroll Pale Ale, 3 brands were about 70% of biz.

About 45% of Odell biz is still draft, noted Wynne. And draft trends also ain't as robust these days. Odell getting faster growth in packaged beer, especially cans. Of its 7 rotating seasonals, several that still did comparatively well last yr will switch from 4 or 6-pack bottles to 6-pack cans. Wynne touted several virtues of cans; less expensive, easier to change, great for artwork on labels.

Next yr, Odell will launch in Chicago in Feb and go statewide with Breakthru Bev. Recall, Breakthru is Odell's biggest distrib by far, selling most of its volume in home state Colo. Before adding IL, Breakthru about 45% of Odell's total biz. So going with them in IL "makes total sense to us." And in Colo, Breakthru will help Odell to navigate state law recently passed that will allow grocers to sell full strength beers in coming years.

Odell's Colorado volume remains about 62% of its total (over 1 mil cases), and that is up 12.5%. So Odell near 2 share in Colo. In most of state, including Denver, Breakthru is its distrib. In part of Colo, Odell self distributes and in part it goes thru AB network. When it goes into IL, Odell will be available in 14 states total. It added much smaller IA and ND in 2016, going with Johnson Brothers in both. Johnson Brothers also sells Odell in Nebraska. So between Breakthru and Johnson Brothers, 2 distribs that principally sell spirits also sell well over half of Odell volume.

Elsewhere, Odell is sometimes "precariously positioned" with AB distribs, according to Wynne. Tho some are independent-minded, she's "concerned." Wynne is also "worried about the influence of" AB and how it could "effectively smother" independent craft, noting if it's successful, "independent craft will become irrelevant." However, Wynne still optimistic about craft and Odell's future. Odell still pursuing the same "not very flashy" course of action. "We do what we know," said Wynne, "and we do it well." In 2016, it missed aggressive growth goal (around 20%). So in 2017, Odell's target is more manageable 8.5% growth, another 10,000 bbls. 
While craft segment is generally flourishing in UK, there are a handful of long-established mid-sized craft brewers that are already feelin' the "squeeze" from both large multinational cos and smaller local microbreweries, reported Financial Times. "We don't have the duty benefit of the small guys or the efficiencies of the bigger ones," said director of Moorhouse's Brewery, Ian Parkinson. In UK, brewers that produce less than 5K hectoliters (~4261 bbls) pay a lower tax rate, which "rises on a sliding scale to full tax" at just 60K hectos (~51,130 bbls). So mid-sized brewers above the 60K threshold don't get any kind of tax break compared to large brewers there. "Microbreweries have a 25-30 per cent price advantage. It is an unfair playing field. I am unaware of any other market where the government intervenes so directly like this," said Ian. (Note that in US, brewers producing less than 2 mil bbls pay significantly reduced federal excise tax rate on first 60K bbls.) Sales reached £5.2 mil last yr, but co "made a £300,000 loss" while boosting capacity to 85K hectos. "Forty-five per cent of our revenue goes straight to the exchequer," he added.

Several mid-sized brewers are altering their bizzes and portfolios to stay competitive in ways that should read quite familiar. Thwaites Brewing, founded in 1807, licensed out a couple of its "popular" brands to a top pub co, Marston's, back in 2015. Now it "only brews niche ales for its pub, hotel and spa estate." Shepherd Neame also "branched out into hotels and food, while retaining brewing volume by supplying unbranded bottles to discount supermarkets." Camerons (part-owned by Heineken) sells "majority of its near-one million hectoliters a year output" to Heineken, Carlsberg and Diageo, and has 75 pubs that are "core to the business." Moorhouse's, founded in 1865, invested millions of $$ into new facility and added new beers such as White Witch, a low ABV Blonde Ale with citrus notes. And now it added another blonde ale, Stray Dog, partnering up with the band, New Order, "following the success that another brewer, Robinson, had with Trooper beer and Iron Maiden." Camerons also launched Motorhead Road Crew beer "in collaboration with members of the band." Indeed, "there are advantages to being our size," Moorhouse's Ian acknowledged. "A microbrewer could not do that" and "I think there are some big opportunities, especially in exports." Ringin' any bells?

Then too, some microbreweries might already be "giving up," suggested director of Twickenham Fine Ales (London's oldest microbrewery), Ben Norman. Competition keeps getting thicker as brewery count swelled to ~1700 as of Oct 2016, according to accountancy group UHY Hacker Young. And Ben knows of several brewers that're "purposefully sitting just below the duty threshold" to avoid higher costs. Could that mean there's less run room for craft in the UK than some might've thought? Remains to be seen, but UK craft still way underdeveloped relative to US. And last we heard, overall UK craft growth still zippin'. 
To most, administrative law isn't anywhere near as interesting as, say, noisy public battles between a retailer and a large state Alc Bev Commission involving equipment seizures and Twitter-storms. But that doesn't mean it's not important for an industry largely regulated by state agencies. Dispute between Austin-based Cuvee Coffee and Texas ABC over the filling of crowlers provided plenty of interest for beer-loving locals and more over the last year, even if it's still not resolved (TABC did file expected exception that will drag legal battle into 2017). However, ruling handed down by state Court of Appeals earlier this month highlights a legal distinction with much broader applicability, according to alc bev atty Marc Sorini of McDermott Will & Emery. It's all about what constitutes a "rulemaking" by state agencies (like those regulating alc bevs) and what doesn't.

Briefly, appeals ct judge in Tex ruled that when TABC added to existing FAQ on its website a Q&A explaining that only manufacturing licensees may fill crowlers, the agency did not simply re-state law but interpreted it in a way that's "generally applicable." That means that the posting constitutes a "rule," not simply some informal guidance by the agency. That distinction is important in this case because TABC argued that Cuvee had no right to file suit over informal guidance and should go through internal administrative process instead. But appeals ct disagreed. So Cuvee "can have its day in court," as Marc summarized.

The distinction is also important outside this case, Marc argued. The use of "similar informal policy documents" by many state agencies, as well as TTB nationally, "has been rising for decades," he observed. Recall similarly informal "bulletin" issued by Georgia Dept of Revenue last fall, which had small brewers calling foul over new restrictions and led directly to further delays in brewers being able to sell facility tours (and give away beer). These FAQs and the like may simplify agencies' work (as many have also dealt with dwindling resources), Marc noted. But if they replace more formal "notice-and-comment rulemaking," which require time to weigh comments by stakeholders, these docs could leave agencies open to legal challenges, as in this Tex case. Or as Marc concluded, this "opinion stands as a useful reminder to regulators that this approach has limits." 

 

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