Vol 6, No 48 Dec 1, 2025

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Beer Still "A Bit Weaker Than Expected" in Circana; Hit Lowest Weekly Sales Since Early Mar EXPRESS - Nov 24 Beer remains "a bit weaker than expected at category aggregate level, even with familiar growth brands…performing well," Circana bev alc veep Scott Scanlon noted in latest weekly report. Scott was expecting a "slight bounce" from previous week, but beer slipped 3.9% to $799.3 mil for latest week thru Nov 16, marking its lowest week of $$ sales since first week of March, he noted. A couple less "familiar" names among top 50 brand fams have been posting more consistent gains in recent weeks too, including AB's Elysian, MC's Topo Chico, Phusion's Four Loko, and Kirin-Lion's New Belgium, on top of familiar gains from Pacifico, Michelob, White Claw, Busch, Victoria, Clubtails, Goose, Guinness, Cayman Jack, Smirnoff, Athletic and Angry Orchard. But it's not nearly enuf to curb steep drops from larger brand fams Bud, Modelo, Corona, Miller Lite, Heineken, and Twisted Tea, among many others.


Cascade Mountain Spring Water Looks Eastward for First Time; Plans Production Expansion BEV INSIGHTS - Nov 24 Cascade Mountain Spring Water, glass-bottle brand that has been carefully building out from its Oregon source, is ready to undertake significant production expansion and for first time make a concerted move into eastern US. Under ownership of Risser family, brand has been offering glass-bottle alternative to likes of Mtn Valley Spring, with retail doors opening during extended spell when fast-growing Mtn Valley was forced to keep retailers on allocation, as growth chief Eddie Pearson noted today. It's also finding its message about the absence of PFAS "forever chemicals" is resonating beyond just its natural food base, even without any gov't action so far to rein in the synthetic chemicals. It remains unclear whether RFK Jr will be taking meaningful steps to do so, tho that's a priority on MAHA platform.


Three Smaller AB Deals in ND and WI; Doll Dist of IA Will Buy Out-of-State EXPRESS - Nov 25 This has already been an above-average year for distributor consolidation in the AB system, but 3 more deals recently announced to employees in the midwest (more reportedly coming). Two are in North Dakota and 1 in Wisconsin. McQuade Dist in Bismark, ND (near 1 mil cases) and neighboring Valley Dist (about 250K cases) will sell to a large distrib from a neighboring state, Doll Dist from Des Moines, IA. Doll also has a distrib in Worthington, MN. McQuade Dist is a multi-generational family biz founded in 1947 that primarily sells AB plus Constellation, various natl, regional and local craft breweries and cideries, beyond beer cos like BeatBox and Geloso, and some non-alcs, per website. Sam McQuade Jr passed away this past summer. Tributes emphasized co's extensive community service, which have continued under current prexy Shannon McQuade. Shannon is also the secretary of NBWA. In WI, S&S Dist (about 1.7 mil cases) of Sparta, WI will sell to Bill's of Menomonie.


Rogue Officially Filed for Chapter 7 Bankruptcy; Revs Dropped Over 1/3 in 2 Yrs; Multiple Potential Buyers Have Looked at the Books CRAFT - Nov 25 About a week after abruptly shuttering operations, Rogue Ales & Spirits and its related subsidiaries officially filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy on Nov 24 in Oregon District Court. Across entities, Rogue has ~$17 mil in liabilities vs just $5.6 mil in estimated assets. Yet $10 mil in liabilities is unliquidated and still being disputed by Rogue, listed as owed to "The Estate of Nancy Vickstrom" as part of a "Dram Shop Negligence Claim" filed against Rogue (and Vin & Brau, LLC + Beachcrest Brewing) in 2022. So there's not as much of a discrepancy between ~$7 mil in non-disputed liabilities vs $5.6 mil in assets. Either way, Chapter 7 bankruptcy means this is a liquidation of all remaining assets and termination of operations.


College Drinking Way Down This Fall, But Cigarette and Cannabis Use 2-3x as Common ALCOHOL ISSUES - Nov 25 As the fall semester got going at colleges and universities across the US, just 15% of a large sample of mostly first-year students reported any alcohol consumption in the past 2 weeks, down by more than half since 2016, according to a new report. Further, "alcohol abstinence has more than doubled since 2016," from 34% to 68%, Vector Solutions, a provider of educational platforms to colleges, wrote in a report released this month. That's all good news for a cohort that's 80% underage. But some more stunning stats show up in responses about other substances. These students were twice as likely to smoke cigarettes in the past two weeks than drink and three-times as likely to use e-cigarettes or cannabis. As recent drinking plummeted in the past decade, the prevalence of cannabis use tripled, cigarette use quadrupled and reported e-cigarette use soared by 7x.


Distrib Valuations "Continue to Be Strong," Said OMAC's Adam Bush at Insights Seminar EXPRESS - Nov 26 "Despite the industry doing what it's doing right now, valuations continue to be strong," said OMAC Beverage Advisor's managing partner Adam Bush on a panel at our Beer Insights Seminar. "For a really attractive market," he noted, it's still "low to mid double digits" as multiple of EBITDA. In "smaller, rural, maybe declining" mkts, "you might look at high single digits." Franchise Equity Partners' operating partner Matt Hughes agreed with that basic take: "With all the headwinds, you would have assumed values would have started to decline, but we haven't seen that consistently," he said. "Why is that?.... This is a preferred route-to-market system. These are great assets. Brands need this route-to-market." Adam added: "It's still a real estate game and a scarcity play. These family-owned, multi-generational businesses are very desirable assets. Maybe you've got to be able to pay more than what you want to," to prevent somebody else from getting it.


Smucker Rides Higher Price to Deliver 21% Coffee Growth in Fiscal Q2; 'Bit of Improvement' Seen on Dunkin' BEV INSIGHTS - Nov 26 Higher pricing overcame volume decline to drive coffee sales sharply higher in fiscal Q2 for JM Smucker, which advised investors that with tariff relief in the offing it will take the margin hit rather than further raising prices. In Q2 report, diversified food marketer based in Orrville, Ohio, indicated that net sales in its coffee segment surged 21% to $144.9 mil, driven by 27% higher net pricing offsetting 6% volume/mix decline as Folgers and Dunkin' brands declined, partly offset by continued gains in Café Bustelo brand. Segment profit decreased 24% to $154.3 mil on higher commodity costs, tariffs, unfavorable volume/mix and higher marketing spend, partly offset by higher pricing.


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