Beer Marketer's Insights - Beer Needs A New 5-Year Plan; Millennials and Women Still Leanin’ Toward Liquor

If demographics are destiny in the great, ongoing beer vs spirits battle for “occasions,” then beer’s headwinds seem to be pickin’ up force. They certainly did over last 5 yrs. Look at demographic data from annual Mediamark surveys of US adults. Data in table compares percentage of each demographic group that drank beer and spirits in 2012 and 2017, plus “indexes” that compare those percentages to the average. They sound some alarming notes. We also included some volume and per capita (per drinker) figures. Lotsa stories in these numbers, most of ‘em not so hot for beer. But we’ll tease out some bullet points that suggest wounds suffered by beer vis a vis spirits during this period. Beer 2012 2017 # - 000 % Index # - 000 % Index Drinkers 97,046 44.2 99,351 42.5 Men 59,527 56.2 127 60,529 53.8 127 Women 37,519 33 75 38,822 32 75 Age 21-24 7,728 45.7 103 7,898 45.1 106 Millennials 31,147 49.8 113 40,766 46.9 110 Gen X 24,374 48.8 110 21,471 43.6 103 Gallons 6,423,800 6,355,000 Gals/Drinker 66.2 64 Share AA 51.7 48.8 Spirits 2012 2017 # - 000 % Index # - 000 % Index Drinkers 93,987 42.8 104,991 44.9 Men 46,656 44 103 51,514 45.8 102 Women 47,332 41.7 97 53,478 44.1 98 Age 21-24 8,477 50.2 117 9,233 52.7 117 Millennials 30,974 49.5 116 45,152 52 116 Gen X 21,861 43.8 102 22,810 46.4 103 Gallons 494,727 559,650 Gals/Drinker 5.3 5.3 Share AA 32.7 35.3 Beer gained 2.3 mil drinkers 2012-2017, but percentage of adults who consumed beer dropped almost 2 points. Had same % of 21+ adults consumed in 2017 as 2012, beer would have picked up over 6 mil drinkers. In contrast, % of adults who drink sprits rose 2 points. So spirits gained 11 mil drinkers in 5 yrs, 9 mil more than beer picked up. And while beer had 3 mil more drinkers in 2012 than spirits, in 2017, spirits had 5.6 mil more drinkers than beer. Beer did nothing to improve penetration among women, as % of women who drank beer actually shrunk by 1 point. Critically, there remains exact same 52-point difference in the index separating male and female drinkers. Male-female split in spirits now: a mere 4 points. (Not shown here, but women index higher for wine than men do.) As result, nearly 15 mil more women drink spirits than beer. Among 21-24 yr-olds, beer picked up just 170K drinkers while spirits gained 750K. That’s another sign that dropoff in teen drinking may already be affecting legal-age drinker pool as well, especially for beer. With mini-population explosion, lots more millennials drinking both bevs in 2017 vs 2012. But % of that group that drinks beer dipped 3 pts, vs a 2.5-pt gain for spirits. As result, while beer gained 9.6 mil millennial drinkers, spirits picked up over 14 mil drinkers in same age group. Meanwhile, slightly older Gen Xers actually soured on beer. Beer lost 3 mil drinkers in that group while spirits gained 1 mil. No surprise then on bottom lines. Less beer sold in 2017 than 2012, while spirits volume rose 13%. Per capita beer consumption per drinker, fell by 2 gallons, 3%, while per capita spirits consumption per drinker held even. As result, beer lost 3 full share of total absolute alcohol consumption, giving up 2.6 of that to spirits.

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Beer Needs A New 5-Year Plan; Millennials and Women Still Leanin’ Toward Liquor

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