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As in the broader beer biz, craft trends moderated in 2024: volume for top players in the segment was still collectively soft but not quite as bad as 2023. And a number of key craft cos found more solid footing or stemmed declines amid an ongoing reshuffling of brand fams near the top. The 27 largest players, each over 100K bbls, declined by about 2% as a group. But with the total segment off about 2.7% (including NAs), we estimate, and all others down more like 3%, top craft players gained share of craft once again. Craft as a whole declined slightly steeper than the overall beer category, which dipped about 2%, we estimate. So craft shed share as well in the 4th yr out of 5 that the segment lost volume. Close to a decade removed from the speedy growth of the early-to-mid 2010s, the segment looks strikingly different. In those days, craft brewers drew in hordes of new drinkers by drawing flavor distinctions between their wares and the mainstream American lagers folks were used to while emphasizing themes like local & independent. A series of acquisitions muddied that narrative, beyond beer categories stole a lotta craft's thunder, and 10 yrs later a unifying craft story is even harder to tell. As the years go on, parsing craft's performance gets even more complicated.Plenty of bbls listed in the table below are not counted as craft by one source or another, whether because of biz structure or because segments like non-alc beer, a major growth driver for a number of top craft players, is often tracked separately. Lots of beyond beer offerings are also wrapped up in these numbers, still. And craft stats also include a growing number of brands offering the kind of mainstream-style lagers some of the earliest craft brewers worked hard to distance themselves from, including at prices that don't always involve much of a trade-up.Top Growers: Athletic Leads in NA, Near 400K Bbls at #14; Kirin-Lion, Sierra, Fiddlehead, Deschutes Athletic shipments jumped by over 50% and got real close to cracking 400K bbls, we estimate. It was easily the biggest bbl gainer in craft and the 2nd largest in all of beer, behind only Constellation Brands. All in non-alcoholic beer and (much smaller) hop waters. Wow! Athletic passed 4 more players to become the #10 craft supplier, by our count. NA contributed to growth for other top players too, including Deschutes, up 5%, and Sierra Nevada, +2%. But Kirin-Lion was once again the biggest craft gainer outside non-alc. Its growth moderated tho, up just 4%, we estimate, as energy moved to its craft-adjacent Voodoo Ranger innovations in flavored malt bevs. It still hit about 1.9 mil bbls, neck-and-neck with AB's remaining portfolio of craft brands for #1 in the segment.Gotta note that even tho it's about 1/10th the size of Sierra Nevada, Vermont-based Fiddlehead added almost as many bbls to the segment last yr, up 18% and surpassing 100K bbls for the first time, only co to cross that threshold in craft last yr. And Fiddlehead epitomizes a crucial shift in the segment: growth in 2024 was more common among players on the back half of this list than it was among the biggest players. Just 2 of the top 5 and 3 of the top 10 posted volume growth last yr. But 8 of the bottom 13 (#15-27), all between 100K and 250K bbls found their way to an overall volume gain. Most grew by modest, low single-digit rates. But these days, that's big. Brightest of the bunch was Rhinegeist, up high-singles. Also up strong was Boneyard, which boosted Deschutes' total trend to up 4-5%, around where Narragansett and Troegs ended up as well, recall. Georgetown and Brooklyn each grew about 3%, plus New Glarus up 1-2% and FX Matt +1%. Tho once again note that Brooklyn's growth was largely international.Tilray Adds ~180KBbls from MC, Down 13% Apples-to-Apples Tilray and its acquisition spree presents its own special complications. With the addition of incremental volume picked up from Molson Coors, the co's total volume in craft grew by a net 70K bbls, 8%, easily the #3 grower in the segment. But apples-to-apples, it was easily the biggest decliner, down about 130K bbls, 13%, we estimate. No matter how you cut it, Tilray is now the clear #5 supplier of craft beer in the US, tho its roughly 900K bbls is spread over a wide range of brands. Editor's note: while Blue Moon and Leinenkugel's are not included in our craft segment, those brands collectively outsold all other craft portfolios in 2024, still over 2 mil bbls, even as both brands continued to decline.Biggest Drops: Boston, AB Shed Bbls and Share; Lagunitas, Monster, Stone and More Tho still hanging onto the top spot in the segment, AB's craft biz declined again in 2024, we estimate, despite strong gains for its focus brands. Likely down about 4% to a bit more than 1.9 mil bbls. Gotta note that AB's total biz down more like 5% last yr, so craft inched even closer to 3% of its US volume. Boston's craft biz slipped at a steeper rate. Off almost 9%, we estimate, to around 1.3 mil bbls, a decline of well over 100K bbls. That's Boston's lowest output of craft beer since 2005, by our measure.It wasn't the only major craft player to decline high singles. Far from it. Lagunitas, Monster, Sapporo-Stone, Barrel One and Allagash all saw similar declines in their craft bizzes. After another soft yr, Lagunitas fell back below 700K bbls for first time since 2014, even as sales improved in Q4. Monster is yet another major public co struggling to get all its craft parts moving in the same direction at once, anticipating a 2d impairment charge on its CANarchy acquisition in its upcoming qtr. And with the combination of Harpoon, Smuttynose and a growing cadre of other craft brands from the Northeast, any bright spots for the new Barrel One outfit were offset by declines elsewhere in its growing portfolio, apples-to-apples. Allagash also had a tuff yr trying to cycle the 2023 release of its big new yr-round IPA, founder Rob Tod shared with CBN, tho trends picked up in the back half and co expects a stronger 2025.More Players Living in a Down Low-Singles World With total beer biz and craft segment both down low single digits, no surprise that plenty of major players also down 1-4% or so. That includes 3 top-10 players: Firestone Walker, Mahou USA and Gambrinus. All 3 cos declined again last yr by volume, but not as steeply as they declined the yr before. All 3 also outperformed the craft segment, with Mahou USA outperforming the broader beer biz. Great Lakes slipped by a bit more than it did in 2023, but also basically held share of craft, down less than 3%. ABV and Three Floyds each declined a bit more steeply, down around 6%, giving back gains each tallied in 2023.Big Beyond Beer Cos, Close Calls and Up & Comers Our craft stats exclude major suppliers that primarily work in segments sold alongside beer and craft beer, but aren't beer, like cider. So both Blake's Bev and Schilling Cider don't appear here, tho they are major indie suppliers selling high-end bevs at scale. 2 Towns Ciderhouse also at comparable volume levels and continuing to grow. Then too, compare some other major beyond beer and RTD brands to these major craft players. High Noon likely topped 1.9 mil bbls last yr, we estimate, about the same size as AB's craft biz and Kirin-Lion. Geloso (makers of Clubtails FMBs) and Phusion Projects (Four Loko and more) are each bigger than Firestone Walker, but not quite as big as Lagunitas. BeatBox, Surfside and BuzzBallz shipped almost as many bbls of its vodka-based RTDs as Athletic shipped of its NA beer. And both Happy Dad hard seltzers and Monaco RTDs outsold New Glarus and Deschutes.A number of players that were previously over 100K bbls no longer make this cut. Odell slipped back below this threshold last yr, co shared with CBN. Alaskan, Summit, Kings & Convicts (Ballast Pt), Rogue and Shipyard, all well over 100K bbls at one point or another, now fall well below prior high water marks. Without Modern Times, Craft 'Ohana may not be over 100K bbls, but its lead Maui brand was well over 80K bbls on its own in 2024, recall, tho much of that was its fast-growing hard seltzers.US Craft Volume Back to 2016 with Over 4,000 More Brewers The total craft segment shed over 650K bbls, our current estimates suggest, back below 23.5 mil bbls, including exports and some other intl volume. That's smaller than the segment was back in 2016, considerably so without around a half-mil bbls of NAs. In those days, Boston Beer was still the #1 player in the segment, over a mil bbls bigger in craft beer than it was in 2024 even before the addition of Dogfish Head. AB was a distant #2 in 2016, the yr it passed 1 mil bbls in craft, tho it was closer to 2 mil bbls if including its stake in Craft Brew Alliance. The segment was still growing then, but major brands had started to slip, losing volume to smaller entries. And that's another major difference: there were fewer than 5,800 US breweries in 2016, according to the Brewers Assn, over 4,000 fewer than there are today.

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Down, But Less, Craft Shed More Share in 2024: Top Players Outperformed Again, 27 Over 100K Bbls

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