Celsius Holdings $1.8 bil deal to acquire competitor Alani Nu, as our sibling pub Beverage Business INSIGHTS reported yesterday evening, could set beer distribs up for another frustrating loss in energy segment. No official word yet, and for now Alani Nu will continue to go thru various beer houses, "but longterm distribution is unclear," noted Jefferies' Kaumil Gajrawala, adding, "Pepsi distribution terms likely to be renegotiated, in our view." With Ghost leaving AB for Keurig Dr Pepper system, if Alani Nu goes to PEP, there isn't much left in energy segment for beer distribs to chase.

On heels of announcing blockbuster acquisition of Alani Nutrition energy and supplement platform, Celsius Holdings leaders made the case that the energy RTDs at heart of deal are complementary, not redundant, to their own energy line, even as they held off on any discussion of whether Alani is destined to transition from the beer networks to so-called blue system of CELH's strategic partner PepsiCo. The $1.8 bil deal combines the #3 and #4 energy brands to collective 15% share of market, at multiple of 3X sales or 12X "adjusted & post synergy" EBITDA that Jeffries' Kaumil Gajrawala rated as "a fair price and the same multiple KDP paid for Ghost." In short term, at least, combination will have Celsius maintaining rival distribution systems for the 2 brands, much as Monster Beverage has done since buying its way into a beer network with acquisition of CanArchy brands as a vehicle for alc offerings and a hedge vs total reliance on strategic distribution partner Coca-Cola. As we reported the past coupla days, the deal was driven by arbitrator's ruling that Alani co-owner Congo Brands buy out its disaffected 50-50 partner Katy Hearn, the fitness influencer, tho it doesn't seem that Congo has said much about this process, unfolding over past 2 years, to its trade partners. From what we can gather, it had first made effort to do the buyout itself but wasn't able to raise the funds.

As in the broader beer biz, craft trends moderated in 2024: volume for top players in the segment was still collectively soft but not quite as bad as 2023. And a number of key craft cos found more solid footing or stemmed declines amid an ongoing reshuffling of brand fams near the top. The 27 largest players, each over 100K bbls, declined by about 2% as a group. But with the total segment off about 2.7% (including NAs), we estimate, and all others down more like 3%, top craft players gained share of craft once again. Craft as a whole declined slightly steeper than the overall beer category, which dipped about 2%, we estimate. So craft shed share as well in the 4th yr out of 5 that the segment lost volume.

The media obsession with semaglutide/GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic or Wegovy again turned focus to their potential for treating alcohol use disorder after the release of a small clinical trial, this week. At the same time, a larger study that got next to no attention offered a crucial reminder about alcohol's impact on health: it rarely acts in isolation. Both studies mostly focus on heavy consumption, so neither does much to help the average drinker sort out the relative safety or risk of light to moderate consumption. But in tandem, they could serve to refocus attention on the kinds of drinkers who experience the vast majority of alcohol-related harm.

Molson Coors' US biz took a clear backward step in 2024 following outsized gains in 2023. And co took its foot off the gas a bit on US mktg spend after its big increase in 2d half of 2023. But volume & rev growth in Canada and topline growth in EMEA & APAC region along with improving COGS and MG&A across the board helped MC achieve its 3d consecutive year of income growth while revs dipped just 0.6% to $11.63 bil, co reported yesterday. MC execs remain optimistic that its US biz can improve thru core brand share and shelf space retention, continued Coors Banquet growth, and enhanced premiumization and beyond beer efforts in 2025 and beyond, among other initiatives. Globally, co expects total biz to return to both top- and bottom-line growth in 2025 with revs expected up low singles and underlying income up mid singles. Yr-end results were broadly above analysts' expectations and TAP stock jumped 9.5% to $58.55 yesterday at mkt close, up 2% early today.